Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/06/15 onwards

[Thunderbolt_]

Looks a bit lonely on his own, so have given him some friends.    

 

pic comp.png

 

I think this would have been more accurate:

 

 

Edited June 10, 2015 by Thunderbolt_

[ChezWeather]

Now feeling optimistic for at least some thunder here on Friday Night / Sat Morning

Edited June 10, 2015 by ChezWeather

[Hodgheg]

Latest bbc forecast showed nothing of interest happening until later on Friday evening but then storms (Or thundery rain) completely missing the south east and pushing north. Im well aware that the bbc forecast map is never that accurate though.  Thoughts?

Edited June 10, 2015 by John Hodgson

[Cableguy]

SE does look to miss out with the majority of storms forecast to the west of London and North of the M4 corridor

[shaky]

any updates on the 18z gfs?

[Chris K]

any updates on the 18z gfs?

 

Pretty much as you were for Fri afternoon - maybe less widespread for the highest CAPE/LI but really not much difference from what I can see at first glance. North Devon looks like getting a hammering from rainfall.

 

Would tie in with Uk Weather Scientific's recent post on their facebook page:

 

"N Devon/S Wales Being Closely Monitored

Area of concern (rainfall) enhanced flood potential for Friday: N Devon & S Wales being very closely monitored.

This is not the only area being monitored but it is the area of most concern at this stage. N Devon especially."

 

 

 

Edited June 10, 2015 by Chris K

[Mesoscale]

I wonder what this sky COULD look like this time Friday. Should do a competition on it to most difference

DSC_0727.JPG

Only gone and jinxed it now ..

[Biggin]

Latest bbc forecast showed nothing of interest happening until later on Friday evening but then storms (Or thundery rain) completely missing the south east and pushing north. Im well aware that the bbc forecast map is never that accurate though.  Thoughts?

They show any temps for Friday ??

[Eye to the sky]

Now feeling optimistic for at least some thunder here on Friday Night / Sat Morning

.What I'd do for a storm at night and directly overhead for that matter.Think we're a bit far north to see anything too dramatic though.Was hoping for a nice day Saturday but all looks rather cool and wet now.

[shaky]

Pretty much as you were for Fri afternoon - maybe less widespread for the highest CAPE/LI but really not much difference from what I can see at first glance. North Devon looks like getting a hammering from rainfall.

ukprec.png

ukcapeli.png

looks very good for south west england/south wales for once lol!!must say feels pretty good to see everything back westwards instead of the normal eastward shift that we get!!just a smidgen further north and I'll be in the game!!must say though those cape values look pretty strong!!

[Mapantz]

I'm still punting for Bristol to be the place for it! El Harvey's Bristol Cream.

I'm also starting to wane for any action here, maybe a bit of rain.

An interesting set-up nonetheless.

[ChezWeather]

.What I'd do for a storm at night and directly overhead for that matter.Think we're a bit far north to see anything too dramatic though.Was hoping for a nice day Saturday but all looks rather cool and wet now.

We did really well in these parts last year for daytime storms, however i cant remember the last time we had a good show at night! 

[Chris K]

looks very good for south west england/south wales for once lol!!must say feels pretty good to see everything back westwards instead of the normal eastward shift that we get!!just a smidgen further north and I'll be in the game!!must say though those cape values look pretty strong!!

 

To be honest if there was a shift east I think many more areas will be prone to flash flooding, particularly in the W country. Also, huge swathe of rainfall modelled to pivot W of Cornwall over the sea on the 18z...it would not take much of a shift to affect the guys down there more either.

 

However, I still prefer to see what the higher resolution models show for rainfall.

Edited June 10, 2015 by Chris K

[Mapantz]

You can say what you like about these types of charts, but they have been showing pretty much the same for 72hrs.

[Wilxy]

You can say what you like about these types of charts, but they have been showing pretty much the same for 72hrs.

viewimage (6).pngviewimage (7).png

 

Classic thundery rain totals there which to me suggests more general rain with the odd rumble rather than thunderstorms.

[Gordon Webb]

Classic thundery rain totals there which to me suggests more general rain with the odd rumble rather than thunderstorms.

 

yep those charts seem to show really heavy rain for SW england and S Wales and if you get flooded don't expect help from government that's reserved for London and the SE

[Stormyking]

Im still not overly convinced on this stuff tomorrow night, however Friday Morning and Early Afternoon looks very interesting indeed, still not sure whether to stay on the isle of wight or go for a mainland chase! As theres  a chance of Elevated stuff too! Though as the day goes on, to me it looks like it just goes into a general area of thundery rain..... But it looks interesting either way

Edited June 10, 2015 by Stormyking

[Steve C]

Im still not overly convinced on this stuff tomorrow night, however Friday Morning and Early Afternoon looks very interesting indeed, still not sure whether to stay on the isle of wight or go for a mainland chase! As theres  a chance of Elevated stuff too! Though as the day goes on, to me it looks like it just goes into a general area of thundery rain..... But it looks interesting either way

 

I'd stay where you are. You've better photo opportunities, being on an island IMHO (big skies in all directions) and as long as the activity is relatively near you, committing to a ferry might end up being a pain (you can't just say 'change direction' to the ferry operator etc.) If you know the activity is going to be a two hour plus ferry journey, as a minimum, then you could decide to do it.

 

The likelihood, before the radar watching timescale, though, is that you'll likely be in a reasonable place where you are.

[Karl83]

Same theme has remained for a few days now.

 

 

Bring it on!

[Stormyking]

I'd stay where you are. You've better photo opportunities, being on an island IMHO (big skies in all directions) and as long as the activity is relatively near you, committing to a ferry might end up being a pain (you can't just say 'change direction' to the ferry operator etc.) If you know the activity is going to be a two hour plus ferry journey, as a minimum, then you could decide to do it.

 

The likelihood, before the radar watching timescale, though, is that you'll likely be in a reasonable place where you are.

That is the problem, is the ferries from this place, its so so expensive at times! But the problem I have is that me and my friend actually now get sponsored by Bournemouth News and at times channel 4 to do storm chasing around the uk, basically we was on Channel 4 for a severe weather and Thunderstorm documentary back at Christmas, but they want us to send them live footage whenever things get good basically, so im in an awkward situation whether to stay here or go to the mainland, because this could go either way haha :/ 

Edited June 10, 2015 by Stormyking

[elfinpunk]

Well I have so many apps now showing whacking great lightning symbols I am building up a little hope for Friday. Typical it's going to kick off when I have to work rather than the two weeks off I have either side. Weston seems to repel fun weather so it will be intereting to watch the radar Friday.

Met office has changed from storm to rain again though. Good luck folks.!

Edited June 10, 2015 by elfinpunk

[alexisj9]

That is the problem, is the ferries from this place, its so so expensive at times! But the problem I have is that me and my friend actually now get sponsored by Bournemouth News and at times channel 4 to do storm chasing around the uk, basically we was on Channel 4 for a severe weather and Thunderstorm documentary back at Christmas, but they want us to send them live footage whenever things get good basically, so im in an awkward situation whether to stay here or go to the mainland, because this could go either way haha :/ 

Nice one for the sponsorship. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Estofex has a 15% thin yellow just teasing the south coast - so tomorrow night might not be the big show we initially thought...

[Costa Del Fal]

Few spots of rain here tonight.

[Buckster]

looks to me that by far all our best chances are early Friday afternoon

 

my concern is that it might play out that the storms North France chuck out a load of upper level cloud

 

we get a load of morning murk on Friday

 

temperatures don't have chance to rise as high as models suggest, so we get even lower CAPE

 

and we're left with a mass of "thundery rain"

 

especially since peak instability is quite early in day - not much time for temps to recover if we have murk in the morning

 

I'd reckon west of spine of country has best chance of home grown storms - but nothing particularly exciting

 

I think S-East "may" have a chance of some decent imports -but low chance

Edited June 11, 2015 by Buckster