Storm & Convective Discussion - SPANISH PLUME - 30/06/15 onwards

[steve86]

Hi guys this is a pic i took between gosport and the iow earlier this evening.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Manchester to Glasgow is only £30 one way, gets you there in less than 3 hours.

 

I'd be tempted but £30 is too much for me. That's literally a week's food. Sold my car years ago too so I pretty much have to sit and wait for something to happen! Plus that's only one way, can't see many people wanting a one way ticket to Glasgow

Edited June 30, 2015 by CreweCold

[Hodgheg]

Still some bits and bobs of stuff hanging around, sporadic heavy precip on the radar, keeping me awake of course. 

[Harry]

Still some bits and bobs of stuff hanging around, sporadic heavy precip on the radar, keeping me awake of course.

Get your sleep...I'm keeping fingers crossed for some morning stuff Thursday and more especially early hours of Saturday we'll need our energy!

[Tom Jarvis]

I saw one huge bolt of lightning which was that single one near gatwick airport. It was a proper forked lightning

[Hodgheg]

I saw one huge bolt of lightning which was that single one near gatwick airport. It was a proper forked lightning

Just now or earlier on?

[cheese]

I have no idea why everyone in Manchester and Cheshire is  getting so depressed over tomorrow evening. Looks pretty good to me. Might as well wait and see what happens.

[ChezWeather]

It seems strange to be saying that i am too far south for a good storm... 

 

Northern England / Southern Scotland looking like a real hotspot, all could shift south yet though

Edited June 30, 2015 by ChezWeather

[Tom Jarvis]

Just now or earlier on?

Earlier on about 1 hour ago Edited June 30, 2015 by DiagonalRedLine
Added in the person Tom was responding to

[Thunderbolt_]

I have no idea why everyone in Manchester and Cheshire is  getting so depressed over tomorrow evening. Looks pretty good to me. Might as well wait and see what happens.

 

I'm not. I will be watching the radar and waiting to see what happens tomorrow, rather than getting all depressed now.

[davehsug]

I have no idea why everyone in Manchester and Cheshire is  getting so depressed over tomorrow evening. Looks pretty good to me. Might as well wait and see what happens.

Experience.

[sn0wman]

If I was chasing tomorrow I would park myself in Northern Cumbria, and I know of a few who have been on the Netweather Chases in the US Who are going to give this a shot tomorrow.

We like Silver Lining use the S L I M Technique

Reverse that word for the most important factors being

M = Moisture which is in abundance at 20c or 68f

I = Instability again plenty of instability with 81/68f and decent LCL Heights

L = Lift again loads of lift from the approaching trough and Plume

S = Shear, again with 40knts of deep layer shear this region is perfectly placed

Then look at a few models which break out storms maturing in this area tomorrow between 3-6pm and BINGO!

If I was chasing I would be in Northern Cumbria and Scotland! And yes the Estofex Warning is warranted with whats on the table!

Brilliant summary

Can't even express how excited I am for tomorrow's potential Really hoping I'm not too far west for thunderstorms though - Clackmananshire is just on the northwestern boundary of the Estofex Level 2 area. Wish I could do some storm chasing; can't start driving lessons until September sadly!

Edited June 30, 2015 by sn0wman

[PolarWarsaw]

Why are you fellow Midlanders kicking off? The Beeb forecast a few shakers drifting north overnight for CS England. Not as extensive as they are but the 6.30 news said they would be about.

The 'plume' and forecast line of PPN isn't due until morning when winds turn more directly southerly and pump showers up through Wales/Cumbria/Scotland...we still have just as much chance of a storm from this line as we did 5-6 hours ago. Nothing's changed.

[poseidon]

Looks like an MCS in the Bay of Biscay now.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Anyone explain why in such a ripe environment the channel storms this evening died off?

Just for reference as I thought I understood the Synoptics for tonight but obviously I'm missig some key detail.

Ta

Also, any bay of Biscay cameras anyone know of?

Edited June 30, 2015 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[ChezWeather]

Why are you fellow Midlanders kicking off? The Beeb forecast a few shakers drifting north overnight for CS England. Not as extensive as they are but the 6.30 news said they would be about.

The 'plume' and forecast line of PPN isn't due until morning when winds turn more directly southerly and pump showers up through Wales/Cumbria/Scotland...we still have just as much chance of a storm from this line as we did 5-6 hours ago. Nothing's changed.

I still see that we have some chance here in the Midlands, all it takes is a slight shift south

[Daniel*]

The little beast in Bay of Biscay has extreme intense rainfall and plenty of elecltrical activity. It appears to be heading for the SE IMHO somethin' to watch out for if you're a southerner. It could even grow in size with such plentiful CAPE/Li over NW France could it become a fully fledged MCS or am I

[Mapantz]

Anyone explain why in such a ripe environment the channel storms this evening died off?

Just for reference as I thought I understood the Synoptics for tonight but obviously I'm missig some key detail.

Ta

Also, any bay of Biscay cameras anyone know of?

 

I think there was weak to moderate cap in place, that allowed a bit of development, but, not enough to keep the storms building vertically, rather, they just spread out and weaken.

 

I could be wrong, it's an educated guess.

[Neilsouth]

Lots of thick altocumulus coming up from the south west

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I think there was weak to moderate cap in place, that allowed a bit of development, but, not enough to keep the storms building vertically, rather, they just spread out and weaken.

 

I could be wrong, it's an educated guess.

Ok nice explanation kinda makes sense I guess. Thanks

[Paul R]

Lightning visible just then, plus thunder. No idea where that came from. All looked quiet. Think it came from the south.

 

Edit: Looks to be just to my south west, according to where the strike was plotted on lightningmaps.org

 

Edit: Another flash and rumble. Something's starting up again...

Edited June 30, 2015 by Paul Roberts

[alexisj9]

Lots of thick altocumulus coming up from the south west

Yep keep watching it cover the moon, looks beautiful, so even if no storms happen I'm happy, today's weather couldn't have been any better over here.

[Daniel*]

This is the rascal in Bay of Biscay I think it's a MCS I do not know about anyone else? not far from reaching land which is loaded with 'fuel' I expect to see it to swell in size could get interesting....

[weatherobsuk]

Storms now breaking out more inland France, towards Bordeaux

[alexisj9]

This is the rascal in Bay of Biscay I think it's a MCS I do not know about anyone else? not far from reaching land which is loaded with 'fuel' I expect to see it to swell in size could get interesting....

image.jpg

Weird thing is it seems to be stuck where it is, doesn't seem to have move very far since it started.