Storm & Convective Discussion - SPANISH PLUME - 30/06/15 onwards

[Guenhwyvar]

Lightning here on South coast

[PolarWarsaw]

The south boundary of the level 2 is literally, probably right over the top of my head tommorrow. Quite surprised by that. 

[Dami]

From clear to building cloud. Good luck to all and esp to those in the level2. Stay safe.

[A.J]

Low rumbles of thunder to my west

[Harry]

I move to the southeast and the best plume in years appears to favour the north lol.

Steady Eddie...last July brought one awesome plume in particular which bought two consecutive nights of spectacular thunderstorms here in the SE. That also brought a level 2 from Estofex for N France and SE England (and boys is it deliver!!!)...guys up north won't know what's hit them tomorrow, could be AWESOME!!

[Condor Vitesse]

Lightning on here.. Nice sounds of the sea as well http://www.bognorregisbeach.co.uk/live

[IanR]

lol tomorrow looks real good for us ..

it does look better further north , level 2 lol ,  not here in wigan though , the cottingly fairies existing is more likey 

 

you might get out of the nsc ,  

[ThunderBuddy21]

I'm off to skeggy tomorrow hope the weather plays ball ie ; no storms i mean and hopefully none for the journey there and back as well

 

so pleased i'm not going to blackpool

Im praying for no storms too!

Currently trying to hold in a panic attack after tomp456s post...waaaahhhh!

[Geordiesnow]

 

There are two factor that may limit the overall severity of the situation:

A/ Degree of initiation. With no strong synoptic-scale upward motion and in the capped airmass, it may be difficult to initiate storms. Initiation will be more likely in the evening hours as 850 and 700 hPa temperatures begin to drop from the west and cold front affects the area. 

B/ Stable boundary layer. Due to the very hot airmass around 850 hPa, it will require a lot of heating to destabilise the boundary layer and allow storms to root in it. Thus, especially in the early period, most storms will stay elevated (with primarily hail threat), as they move from France towards England. Surface based development will be most likely in the late afternoon and early evening hours..

http://www.estofex.org/

 

And this shows why caution is needed as the breakdown of the heat may not turn out as thundery as the weather charts on paper would seem to suggest however I be very surprised if there is no storms about, just how widespread and severe they be is always open to a lot of doubt. 

[Rain123]

I just heard some real thunder. Promise...

[Ben Sainsbury]

Low rumbles of thunder to my west

To your west? There are no storms to your west?

[Man With Beard]

This is really quite decent. Moderate rain, wind picking up, tropical feeling in high temps. Distant thunder but nothing major in that way.

[Mark Parsons]

Anyone given the eye towards Bay of Biscay, check it out!

Where you looking? Can't see nowt!

[chapmanslade]

And this shows why caution is needed as the breakdown of the heat may not turn out as thundery as the weather charts on paper would seem to suggest however I be very surprised if there is no storms about, just how widespread and severe they be is always open to a lot of doubt. 

Absolutely. A few people need to read the report not just look at the pictures. IF they fire the storms may be severe BUT they may not fire.

[Darren Bown]

And this shows why caution is needed as the breakdown of the heat may not turn out as thundery as the weather charts on paper would seem to suggest however I be very surprised if there is no storms about, just how widespread and severe they be is always open to a lot of doubt. 

The 'B'  point mentions 'a lot of heating' I guess 29C would be enough?

[tomp456]

Im praying for no storms too!

Currently trying to hold in a panic attack after tomp456s post...waaaahhhh!

Chill

Seems to have died down now and it's heading away from us anyway.

That's our action for the year been and gone

[Staffordshire]

Given that level 2, I think I have decided I will chase tomorrow for definite

Anyone got any ideas where to set up (not too long of a drive!!) so I can easily move position if needed, and what time to get there?

[Harry]

Some agitated skies even here now.

Ac flooding in, darkening murkier skies towards the W/SW...some feeble looking AcCas too.

[Homerr]

Shame to see what was over Basingstoke has died off - it was heading right towards me  

[Tempest]

Estofex lost some rep from when they issued a level 2 for the Gloucester area several weeks ago and there was tuppence out of it - all I'm saying is do not take it as a gospel. Be composed...

Be composed! You gotta be kiddin me

On a more sombre note; if there are severe storms tomorrow I just hope that no one gets harmed.

[Mesosphere]

Level 2 issued by Estofex over Northern England and Southern Scotland for tomorrow :O Never seen a Level 2 threat over Scotland before - this is uncharted territory here.

Their forecast highlights the potential for severe thunderstorms (even bow echoes & supercells) but also the high degree of uncertainty in the situation. So exciting to see a Level 2 IMBY though - can hardly believe it tbh.

The wording of the forecast is very strong at some points, for example:

"Potentially very severe situation with number of question marks will develop over parts of UK. "

 

Yeah i've never seen Scotland with a level two in all the years i've been observing the weather, I just about choked on my Coffee  . Will be a very interesting late afternoon/evening for us lot tomorrow 

Edited June 30, 2015 by Mesosphere

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Dont think ive ever been put in a level 2 by estofex.

[Pat Butcher]

Agreed with those advising caution on the Estofex forecast. Ingredients based forecasting is exactly that.

Possessing an onion and wearing a beret doesn't necessarily mean that you can make French Onion Soup. However, it also doesn't mean that you can't, either...

[Rain123]

3 rumbles from my south. Also some lightning.

[UKSupercell]

Evening all, 

Was watering the neighbours garden an hour ago and noticed something called clouds in the sky! I was actually taken aback as today has displayed the clearest skies for a while. 

 

Saw some altocumulus castellanus, indicative of instability I believe? Some clouds even looked like they were building as they moved further north-east, but I have to say, from a distance I saw a swathe of what looked like grey velum in the foreground of a mass of presumably cumulonimbus....I couldn't believe the south-east was getting storms tonight but turns out on the radar there are some right now moving our way over Hants and Surrey and looking outside the sky is turning angry-looking. 

Looking forward to these next few days. After the last two Friday scenarios which Bucks saw sweet FA, I am hoping for the best this time.