Storm & Convective Discussion - SPANISH PLUME - 30/06/15 onwards

[Condor Vitesse]

Opening a beer for that Estofex forecast...

After seeing that i'm having a few scotches.

[Mokidugway]

Woop !!! Level 2 you sexy beast :0.....

[dave reid]

looking at that area of heavy, isolated ish precip. on the west of main crap off Bournemouth, and hoping

[A.J]

Distant flashes off to my west/south west ....bright orange

[tomp456]

Just saw a cheeky flash of lightning to the SSW, and a very distant rumble of thunder.

Edited June 30, 2015 by tomp456

[Geordiesnow]

Estofex lost some rep from when they issued a level 2 for the Gloucester area several weeks ago and there was tuppence out of it - all I'm saying is do not take it as a gospel. Be composed...

 

Estofex also likes to exagerate the potential aswell at times but nevertheless as you rightly say, don't take it as gospel.

 

The BBC does show some good potential for Scotland with some bright echos on their PPN charts around Edinburgh for tomorrow night but as per ever, its a wait and see what happens type of thing. 

[Dami]

Should of gone up to beachy head AJ and watched the storms at the pub there.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Not sure if you can make out the huge anvil hidden behind the cloud almost centre of the picture.

Picture does this sky no justice though, stunning

[Mesoscale]

Looks like the south on that estofex forecast is sandwiched inbetween the most potent areas in Europe, ****starts slow clap**** typical, good luck to those further north tomorrow. I'm pretty sure Lincolnshire is going to get it pretty bad. 

[Chris K]

Estofex also likes to exagerate the potential aswell at times but nevertheless as you rightly say, don't take it as gospel.

 

The BBC does show some good potential for Scotland with some bright echos on their PPN charts around Edinburgh for tomorrow night but as per ever, its a wait and see what happens type of thing. 

 

Maybe, but they do explain possible inhibitors to storm development in their forecasts.

 

EG - tomorrow:

 

DISCUSSION

... England, Scotland ...

Potentially very severe situation with number of question marks will develop over parts of UK. As the plume of steep lapse rates overspreads the low level airmass characterised by dewpoints of 16 - 18 deg C, moderate degree of latent instability will develop over the region. CAPE values will stay mostly between 500 - 1500 J/kg, but some models allow up to 2000 J/kg of CAPE, especially over N England / S Scotland. Strong flow at low to mid-troposphere will result in 15 - 25 m/s of 0-3 and 0-6 km bulk wind shear, values well conducive for organised convection. Furthermore, veering of wind with height will favour curved hodographs and more than 200 m2/s2 of SREH in the 0-3 km layer. Such conditions would be very conducive for supercells, probably in the HP mode, or bow echoes, as much of the wind shear is confined to the surface to 700 hPa layer. Large (or even very large hail), damaging winds and even tornadoes (especially in the northern part of Lvl 2 with low LCLs) could accompany such well organised storms. 

There are two factor that may limit the overall severity of the situation:

A/ Degree of initiation. With no strong synoptic-scale upward motion and in the capped airmass, it may be difficult to initiate storms. Initiation will be more likely in the evening hours as 850 and 700 hPa temperatures begin to drop from the west and cold front affects the area. 

B/ Stable boundary layer. Due to the very hot airmass around 850 hPa, it will require a lot of heating to destabilise the boundary layer and allow storms to root in it. Thus, especially in the early period, most storms will stay elevated (with primarily hail threat), as they move from France towards England. Surface based development will be most likely in the late afternoon and early evening hours.

Level 2 is introduced for the area, where best CAPE/shear overlap is simulated, as well as with the best chances for the surface based storm initiation.

 

http://www.estofex.org/

Edited June 30, 2015 by Chris K

[Tempest]

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2015-07-01

 

This has been upgraded since I last looked. 

I'm just right on the black line of the severe

[IanR]

 we in the north west were supposed to get an odd storm late this evening . as per yesterdays forecast, the south stole them 

[SnowJoke]

Some interesting cloud formations about this evening alto cumulus floccus and alto cumulus castellanus towers bubbling up signalling instability in the mid levels of atmosphere. See pic below. Interesting how precipitation with sporadic Lightning has broken out to my sw. Wasn't expecting to see anything tonight but looking promising.

Edited June 30, 2015 by SnowJoke

[Karl83]

Found this outside about 10 minutes ago.

 

 

Some great photos on here tonight!

[mhielte]

I like the fact initiation is primed for the evening hours. Gives us a chance to get home from work and chase Plenty of Pennine/Peak viewpoints near here

[Gordon Webb]

I'm off to skeggy tomorrow hope the weather plays ball ie ; no storms i mean and hopefully none for the journey there and back as well

 

so pleased i'm not going to blackpool

Edited June 30, 2015 by Gordon Webb

[Mokidugway]

we in the north west were supposed to get an odd storm late this evening . as per yesterdays forecast, the south stole them 

lol tomorrow looks real good for us ..

[Paul R]

Very odd. Main core of that small storm has passed. about half a dozen white and red CC/CG flashes. Some very large blobs of rain for all of thirty seconds and that was it. Moving to the ENE now rahter quickly. 

[> mark]

For a flash that was a long way off to my SSW, it was very bright :-)

[Ben Sainsbury]

Anyone given the eye towards Bay of Biscay, check it out!

[Harry]

Ha! The forecast I posted earlier today doesn't seem so far fetched now quite chuffed tbh.

Good luck you northern folk

[ancientsolar]

Lots of showers very rapidly developing over Swindon 

[Pursuer of Storms]

Some interesting cloud formations about this evening alto cumulus floccus and alto cumulus castellanus towers bubbling up signalling instability in the mid levels of atmosphere. See pic below. Interesting how precipitation with sporadic Lightning has broken out to my sw. Wasn't expecting to see anything tonight but looking promising.

 

Hey hey! Those are the ones I photographed too! Sky changed so quickly here tonight, didn't it?

[Hodgheg]

I move to the southeast and the best plume in years appears to favour the north lol. 

[Man With Beard]

Steady rain now, light but big drops. No further thunder.