Storm & Convective Discussion - SPANISH PLUME - 30/06/15 onwards

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Sorry and not meaning to complain but two observations:

1) tonight's forecast couldn't be more different to the reality!

2) why oh why is LIGHTNINNG dying off when we literally have all the so-called ingredients.

I just don't understand storms. Every time I think I do something like this happens. Well, so far this year about 4 times!

Wouldn't mind if things WOULD JUST HAPPEN!!!

STOP TOYYING WITH MEEEEEE!!!!

[Paul Sherman]

for sure !  hmmmm, nothing is sure in this part of the north west were storms are concerned,  its a very fickle area for storms, cumbria and scotland have a better chance of more widespead activity it seems

 

Lol well get out in yer car and find the storms then, makes me laugh how many people demand a storm on their doorstep in this country, it dont happen like that!

[ThunderBuddy21]

I wonder this too. If so, I'd rather it just go bang in one go than have more mediocre storms.

It feels like its getting hotter in this house.

I only say it coz usually when this happens every moans about the 'crud' leftover means there's less surface heating to trigger the storms!

This humidity though! I hate storms but of its gunna clear the air then go for it! Ugh, dreading tomorrow

[UKSupercell]

Kicking off in the bay of biscay I see - http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime

[ItIsGee]

Lol well get out in yer car and find the storms then, makes me laugh how many people demand a storm on their doorstep in this country, it dont happen like that!

love it!

[Harry]

Sorry and not meaning to complain but two observations:

1) tonight's forecast couldn't be more different to the reality!

2) why oh why is LIGHTNINNG dying off when we literally have all the so-called ingredients.

I just don't understand storms. Every time I think I do something like this happens. Well, so far this year about 4 times!

Wouldn't mind if things WOULD JUST HAPPEN!!!

STOP TOYYING WITH MEEEEEE!!!!

This may sound obvious, but...the weather is never wrong. The only thing that is wrong are our models and understanding of the weather

[Daniel*]

Big rain drops falling at present... Literally ended after a minute at most while typing this!

[Harry]

Kicking off in the bay of biscay I see - http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime

Isn't it just...gone bananas

[IanR]

Lol well get out in yer car and find the storms then, makes me laugh how many people demand a storm on their doorstep in this country, it dont happen like that!

i am home from work from at about 1615 so may have to drive 30 miles or so north on the m6 to see some action, it was in my plans this, as i suspect nothing will happen here, as per usual,  but i am not driving  all way up to scotland if by this time the storms are mostly up there, i will call it game over by then

[ItIsGee]

i am home from work from at about 1615 so may have to drive 30 miles or so north on the m6 to see some action, it was in my plans this, as i suspect nothing will happen here, as per usual,  but i am not driving  all way up to scotland if by this time the storms are mostly up there, i will call it game over by then

but where is the love? where is the commitment!

 

drive drive drive until a CG bounces off your bonnet! or Hail!  or a cow even!

[IanR]

love it!

yes but chasing uk style thunder showers  on the uk's sh**ty congested motways is not quite like the midwest is it

[Speedway Slider]

Blitzortung strikes are coloured squares (Rastars) you can alter their size in sq kilometres, however, each rastar has a number in it, what do these pesky numbers denote????

[Flipflop]

Lol well get out in yer car and find the storms then, makes me laugh how many people demand a storm on their doorstep in this country, it dont happen like that!

 

No it doesn't but not everybody has the means to chase!  ill get on our lasses bike if need be..if close  

[ChezWeather]

I just need the precip to develop slightly further south than the models are suggesting! Fingers crossed 

 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

What about the West Midlands?

 

I'd say those of us in the Midlands/southernmost N England area are going to have to put all of our eggs in the Friday night basket. Worrying as it's still a few days away and there's plenty of time for the potential to slip away east. It's staggering to think I'm still waiting for my first storm this year and may still be waiting even having had close to 30C heat.

[ItIsGee]

yes but chasing uk style thunder showers  on the uk's sh**ty congested motways is not quite like the midwest is it

certainly isnt but its worth a shot!

[Harry]

Off to sleep now, not waiting up for a sporadic flash.

Looking forward to watching the awesomeness up north tomorrow...I think it's going to be a memorable day for many!!

Further ahead, GFS for Friday night still looking AWESOME!! If it came off a night of storms in the offing for many.

I'd say those of us in the Midlands/southernmost N England area are going to have to put all of our eggs in the Friday night basket. Worrying as it's still a few days away and there's plenty of time for the potential to slip away east. It's staggering to think I'm still waiting for my first storm this year and may still be waiting even having had close to 30C heat.

That's nowt...in 2006 I endured 3 weeks of 28C to 36C and the most I got was a pop-fart thundery shower I think you might get something tomorrow though

[Gordon Webb]

I'd say those of us in the Midlands/southernmost N England area are going to have to put all of our eggs in the Friday night basket. Worrying as it's still a few days away and there's plenty of time for the potential to slip away east. It's staggering to think I'm still waiting for my first storm this year and may still be waiting even having had close to 30C heat.

 

relative good news for me as I'm on the east coast tomorrow and by the time I get back it should be pretty quiet although some rain early on thursday

[Paul Sherman]

If I was chasing tomorrow I would park myself in Northern Cumbria, and I know of a few who have been on the Netweather Chases in the US Who are going to give this a shot tomorrow.

 

We like Silver Lining use the S L I M Technique

 

Reverse that word for the most important factors being

 

M = Moisture which is in abundance at 20c or 68f

 

I = Instability again plenty of instability with 81/68f and decent LCL Heights

 

L = Lift again loads of lift from the approaching trough and Plume

 

S = Shear, again with 40knts of deep layer shear this region is perfectly placed

 

Then look at a few models which break out storms maturing in this area tomorrow between 3-6pm and BINGO!

 

If I was chasing I would be in Northern Cumbria and Scotland! And yes the Estofex Warning is warranted with whats on the table!

[IanR]

but where is the love? where is the commitment!

 

drive drive drive until a CG bounces off your bonnet! or Hail!  or a cow even!

there will be no love, no commitment, and certainly no cg's , a flying cow is just as likely as thunder in these parts though

[Paul Sherman]

yes but chasing uk style thunder showers  on the uk's sh**ty congested motways is not quite like the midwest is it

 

You have the US Ingredients tomorrow believe me, but remember the ingredients dont always make the perfect cake

[Hodgheg]

Every model run seems to want to keep the cape/li longer into saturday. Hopefully we can squeeze another day out of this, although i realise I'm being greedy now. Saw one flash in the distance earlier, a very good sign. 

[IanR]

I'd say those of us in the Midlands/southernmost N England area are going to have to put all of our eggs in the Friday night basket. Worrying as it's still a few days away and there's plenty of time for the potential to slip away east. It's staggering to think I'm still waiting for my first storm this year and may still be waiting even having had close to 30C heat.

i agree 

[weatherobsuk]

yes but chasing uk style thunder showers  on the uk's sh**ty congested motways is not quite like the midwest is it

 

Manchester to Glasgow is only £30 one way, gets you there in less than 3 hours.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

The night is young. Perhaps a bit of nocturnal cooling may be a trigger for a few isolated storms to develop as we head into the small hours.

BBC seem keen on a few developing, and I remember the night of July 23rd 2013, as midnight struck, one of the best storms of recent times started and lasted right until 9 in the morning, which just 10 minutes before it began, people had written that night off!

Patience.

Edited June 30, 2015 by East_England_Stormchaser91