Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards

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bloody hell NE france gone up like a christmas tree 

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

This is how I see it... 

 

Looking at the SAT

 

france.jpg

 

To get everyone in the game we now want the low to be sinking south rather than pushing North   

 

I agree with your pic!

 

Just annoying that anything that does develop in Northern France is gonna take at least 4 hours to get here!

 

Good things come to those who wait!

[Carl46Wrexham]

This is how I see it...

Looking at the SAT

france.jpg

To get everyone in the game we now want the low to be sinking south rather than pushing North

Arf! Edited August 13, 2015 by Carl46Wrexham

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I agree with your pic!

 

Just annoying that anything that does develop in Northern France is gonna take at least 4 hours to get here!

 

Good things come to those who wait!

 

 Those storms in NW France are on a mission 

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

 Those storms in NW France are on a mission 

 

175 stikes per minute :O 

 

At that rate, would this be a supercell? Someone on the forum mentioned this yesterday because wind shear

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Really fear for Kent should that storm over Amiens strike. If they think this mornings storms were bad, they've probably got another thing coming!

[Woollymummy]

While there is a lull, I had a look at Blitzortung pages from round the world, and there is even lightning right now in the Canadian Arctic. Isn't that a bit unusual?

http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en&page_0=30

[Gordon Webb]

things seem to firing just in time for the amber warning in the South East  still dull and boring here but I'm not complaining

[Cableguy]

Just got back from Kings Hill Kent, Surrey in comparison is like the Sahara desert, doesnt look like there was much rain at all in comparison to the Deluge in Kent

Edited August 13, 2015 by Cableguy

[Nick L]

175 stikes per minute :O 

 

At that rate, would this be a supercell? Someone on the forum mentioned this yesterday because wind shear

 

Lightning doesn't determine a supercell status, in basic terms it's dependent on whether it's rotating or not. Wind shear is pretty weak so I doubt it's supercellular, but the relatively crap radar network means it's so difficult to tell.

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

175 stikes per minute :O 

 

At that rate, would this be a supercell? Someone on the forum mentioned this yesterday because wind shear

 

Actually no, no supercell just multiple cells!

 

They're all in different positions but very close, but this could affect a huge area of the UK if it can manage to grow and cross the channel!

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Look at the 500ph wind profiles those stroms should do a left turn just as they leave the coast 

[Carl46Wrexham]

things seem to firing just in time for the amber warning in the South East  still dull and boring here but I'm not complaining

Yes you are you're begging for it! *wink*

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Lightning doesn't determine a supercell status, in basic terms it's dependent on whether it's rotating or not. Wind shear is pretty weak so I doubt it's supercellular, but the relatively crap radar network means it's so difficult to tell.

 

Thanks for informing me! I forgot about rotation (l still learning, slowly!)

[William Grimsley]

I'm hoping things develop in NW France soon (no not the same place as Surrey, he meant NE France). Ideally the Cherbourg peninsula to light up would be great!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I'm hoping things develop in NW France soon (no not the same place as Surrey, he meant NE France). Ideally the Cherbourg peninsula to light up would be great!

 

For Devon you want them storms to be slap bang in the middle of N France. 

 

The low is pulling anti clockwise (we all know that)

 

But the further west you go the sharper the pull west is, this is evident on the SAT

Edited August 13, 2015 by Surrey

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Mind boggling lightning strike rates on that lot in NE France now :O

[Marcus_surfer]

Bone dry here in South Wales, forecast says heavy rain

[A.J]

fairly early days, but for my neck of the woods, I'm calling a no show.......overcast with light rain and cool, with little instability modelled it's difficult to see how storms will develop to affect this region...some moderately heavy rain tomorrow morning from the encroaching CF is probably the best to hope for....Disappointing, but not surprising for this region as the synoptics and timings just haven't been right on this occasion 

 

 

 

of course I'm happy for mother nature to prove otherwise 

Edited August 13, 2015 by ajpoolshark

[Nick L]

fairly early days, but for my neck of the woods, I'll calling a no show.......overcast with light rain and cool, with little instability modelled it's difficult to see how storms will develop to affect this region...some moderately heavy rain tomorrow morning from the encroaching CF is probably the best to hope for....Disappointing, but not surprising for this region as the synoptics and timings just haven't been right on this occasion 

 

Yep, can't disagree with that sadly. If I were in Kent or Sussex I'd be excited for the next few hours, elsewhere not so.

[Carl46Wrexham]

Yep, can't disagree with that sadly. If I were in Kent or Sussex I'd be excited for the next few hours, elsewhere not so.

If I was in Kent or Sussex I'd be buying a bloody boat!

[Methuselah]

Unless it all starts moving in a more northerly direction, I don't expect too much...Can only hope!

Edited August 13, 2015 by Ed Stone

[stainesbloke]

fairly early days, but for my neck of the woods, I'm calling a no show.......overcast with light rain and cool, with little instability modelled it's difficult to see how storms will develop to affect this region...some moderately heavy rain tomorrow morning from the encroaching CF is probably the best to hope for....Disappointing, but not surprising for this region as the synoptics and timings just haven't been right on this occasion 

 

 

 

of course I'm happy for mother nature to prove otherwise 

Yep, depressingly familiar situation with Kent getting most of any action and the rest of us just sat wearily watching radar/sferic/satellite returns lol. Could be a few surprises later though! Am grateful for the rain here though would love something like NE France is getting. We used to get storms like that here but not anymore, sadly.

[Stormyking]

Im in one of those areas that's an absolute bloody pain with this set up in regarding hit or miss, had thunder all morning, but that was all connected to that main area that went through Kent, though wasn't frequent, it was a success still and I am not complain, as we have had a decent year... Now tonight is even more tricky to pin point, especially this area,  my thoughts, Kent and Sussex are in the best area, though the odd cell here and there maybe drift this far west, or another large area, with the storms being the east area, though further west of a band of stuff, would have the flash and bang here and there, a bit like this Morning

 

Its more frustrating for the fact me and my mate trying to forecast this for our local area

[Supacell]

I am interested as to how far north the cells across NE France can get before they die and if the westward pull as they enter the UK could send them towards the East Midlands?