North West England Weather Discussion 14/11/15 Onwards

[rain_shadow]

The rain shadow effect has worked in the Vale of Clwyd as well today, maybe a few mm, and the contours of the Sun could be seen for hours, when heavy rain the the West and N of us. The strength of the wind though is out of this world, especially the length of this strong wind....

[ManiaMuse]

Just now, Backtrack said:

What's crazy is, it's absolutely bone dry outside. Grass is dry, paths. It's warm. I love it!

I know I've been loving the mild winter so far as I cycle to work and can't be doing with freezing toes/fingers. It's my first winter 'oop North' after a few years being a soft Southerner working in London.

Only thing I miss is the sun,  Manchester does seem very grey even when it is mostly dry. But if that is the price to pay for mild I will take it.

[damianslaw]

Today has been a carbon copy of the events of 18-19 November 2009- uncanny how similar the set up is. A waving long front with very mild air pumping copious rain over the Lake District. The events of 2009 were supposed to be a 1 in 100 yr event... flood defences built to avoid similar occurances since have failed.

It is very worrying for the future, as these types of set up are likely to occur again and again.

Windermere as with many other places around here is cut off. I'm grateful we are on high ground.

[damianslaw]

Can't help but feel a much colder pattern will surface after all this very mild and very wet weather - mother nature always balances herself out.. Really we can't take any more rain, we've had more than our average Dec monthly total already, some places probably twice as much. It is abnormal.

[Miamay]

Winds and rain have died down her too 

[chillyblast]

I know, down here it touched16c during the day one day this week I thought I was imagining things.

[Miamay]

Lots of flooding in Co Donegal where my parents live 

[weatherobsuk]

Close to 11'c here when it was 2am, walking home even the wind felt like a hair-dryer instead of the typical windchill factor you'd otherwise get this time of year. Comfortable enough outside to wear just 2x shirts and a hiking jacket.

[SP1986]

11-15C in December here is fairly common due to the lee winds of North Wales, but as we've seen from the devastation around Cumbria.. the lee side of the mountain is definitely the best place to live. 

[Snow free zone]

Horrendous conditions in North Lancs and Cumbria, thoughts with all affected by the flooding. Am off up to Carnforth now to check on our warehouse that sits next to the river Bela fingers crossed that all is ok. It is bad around Lancaster the Lune has over topped defences,and the flashes that people saw were the electricity sub stations at Caton and Carnforth being flooded. We've no power at work and they are at the moment saying 18-24hrs for re connection. There's 55,000 people in the Lancaster and Carnforth area with no power atm. Was bad enough here in Preston over the past 24 hrs no idea what to expect further north. 

[Backtrack]

11 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Can't help but feel a much colder pattern will surface after all this very mild and very wet weather - mother nature always balances herself out.. Really we can't take any more rain, we've had more than our average Dec monthly total already, some places probably twice as much. It is abnormal.

Damian- I'd be exceptionally thankful for a high pressure dominated spell. Lovely sunny days and frosty nights proceeded by foggy mornings. We didn't even manage a sustained high pressure period in summer. Surely one is well overdue?

[Bolton67]

Wow I see blue sky 

[Summer Sun]

Rain warnings out for Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1449446400®ionName=nw

[Mokidugway]

No way to get out of south Cumbria tonight all roads and rail links shut ..

[SparkleS]

cold tonight

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Today was the day i seen the sun for the first time in about 3 week!!

[cheshire snow]

Been trying to look for some positives on this awful mild rubbish 

Unfortunately coukd not see much,Until i read the 30 day outlook

From the met office,the last line was the only positive i could fine

"End of December"mild spells becoming less frequent 

 C.S

[damianslaw]

A much better day - we had some sunshine hooray.. forgotten what it looks like. Mild again but not silly mild like yesterday, silly mild back tomorrow.

The last few weeks have been awful. Time for a change I think.

[Mokidugway]

Insured losses for Cumbria  could be as high as 500 million :0..

[iand61]

Just back from a weekend in London, no rain there but no sun either and a cold wind on Saturday.

saw the flooding on the news, hope everyone came out of it unscathed.

 

[Mokidugway]

Glad I went there last week ,I wouldn't of got home .

[tinybill]

hi  dreadful seen on the  tv  to-day  been looking at the radar   more rain looks like be there withing the next 3-4 hours  could be heavy in places something that area don't need at the  moment

[Thunder Snow]

Thankfully the rivers are slowly coming down, in my opinion it has been worse than 2005. With 2 bridges in Carlisle damaged. Flood water still remains everywhere but slowly going down. Big thanks to emergency services 

[Summer Sun]

Updated rain warnings for the coming days
 

Issued at: 1040 on Mon 7 Dec 2015

Valid from: 1700 on Mon 7 Dec 2015

Valid to: 0500 on Tue 8 Dec 2015

A spell of persistent rain, heavy at times, is expect to affect parts of Scotland and Cumbria later today onwards into the night. Whilst this rain will neither be as heavy nor as prolonged as recent rain, please be aware that in view of the saturated nature of the ground and high river levels further localised flooding and disruption to transport is possible. This is an update to the warning issued on Saturday to reduce the impacts to low-level.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

A cold front will start to move eastwards across the area on Monday night, clearing away eastwards early on Tuesday. This front will bring with it a few hours' worth of rain, heavy at times, to the area covered by this warning leading to rainfall totals of 10-15 mm, perhaps locally 20-25 mm. Although these rainfall totals are much less than those which fell over the weekend, given the saturated ground and high river levels, some further localised flooding is possible.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Issued at: 1130 on Mon 7 Dec 2015

Valid from: 0600 on Wed 9 Dec 2015

Valid to: 0900 on Thu 10 Dec 2015
 

Further rainfall is expected to arrive across central and southern Scotland and northern England during the early hours of Wednesday before clearing to the southeast on Thursday. Some very strong winds are also likely in association with this system with gusts of 60 mph possible around exposed coasts and hills. This could prove a further hazard. Please be aware of the potential for further disruption from flooding and to transport. This warning has been updated to bring forward the end time and to remove North Yorkshire and parts of Lancashire from the warning area.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

A frontal system is expected to run into the UK from the west early on Wednesday, bringing further rainfall and strong winds. This will then sink southeastwards across the UK, clearing through Scotland by the early hours of Thursday and clearing northern England by the middle of Thursday. There remains considerable uncertainty around the locations to be most affected by this system but further heavy rainfall looks likely across central and southern Scotland and northwest England. 20-40 mm of rain is expected widely across high ground and there is a very low likelihood of locally seeing 80-100 mm over the highest ground of these areas. Were this to occur renewed flooding is possible given the saturated ground and volume of water running through the river network. Rainfall totals and further flooding of the level seen over the weekend are not expected.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1449446400®ionName=uk

Edited December 7, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Backtrack]

15.2C, virtually no wind. Crystal clear blue sky. I'm wearing my shorts for university. It's December 7th! Fantastic!