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North West England Weather Discussion 14/11/15 Onwards

Liam J

By Liam J
in Regional

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iand61 Maestro

iand61

Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
Posted

A chance of snow overnight and again on Saturday but unless you live half way up a mountain I doubt you'll be making a snowman.

For most of us, including those at my altitude it's looking like another washed out Saturday although with colder rain than the previous ones.

personally though I'd swap a chance of snow for a dry few days although no doubt neither snow or dry will

materialise and the form horse will be just wet.

 

 

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SparkleS Community Regular

SparkleS

Posted
  • Location: Leyland,Lancs, uk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow,snow!! Ooh and sunny,warm days!!!
  • Location: Leyland,Lancs, uk
Posted

Im sure its snowing!

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SparkleS Community Regular

SparkleS

Posted
  • Location: Leyland,Lancs, uk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow,snow!! Ooh and sunny,warm days!!!
  • Location: Leyland,Lancs, uk
Posted

False alarm, obviously!!!! Just looked like snow cause of the way it was falling on car on the cctv cam, its cold though and cold, sleety rain, i know prestons had hailstone tonight.

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Author
Posted

Windy and feeling cold this morning, currently 5.6c. 

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cheshire snow Veteran

cheshire snow

Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
Posted

Strange thing about tomorrow is the temperature drops as the rain band

Approaches temperature before rain band is 5c,then drops to 3c,normally 

The other way round,Peak district,Derbyshire,pennines look to be the

Areas for brief covering of snow.

C.S

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Iceaxecrampon Veteran

Iceaxecrampon

Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
Posted

Big hail shower near Salwick - going out on bike soon (ouch!)

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cheshire snow Veteran

cheshire snow

Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
Posted

Well that was nice to see on the national weather with peter Gibbs

Just now,very surprised to see the snow over N Wales,cheshire,Merseyside, Greater Manchester,also stated the snow

Could start to pile up over N Wales and the Pennines,we shall see

Going to need some evaporating  cooling as temperature was showing 

5c also 

C.S

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dodge Accomplished

dodge

Posted
  • Location: Oldham, Gtr Manchester
  • Location: Oldham, Gtr Manchester
Posted

I'll take some wet slush if the it means the heaviest of the rain stays away from Cumbria after what they've been through - I expect it will be wet slush at best here, but M62 summit and that level of high ground could be looking at something a bit more wintry.  Shame it's coming in the middle of the day and not overnight.

As for the big day, the models are on a 12hr flip cycle at the moment, some suggest a northerly, other a southerly plume.... I expect it will be halfway in between.  Damp, grey and drizzly.

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Geordiesnow Accomplished

Geordiesnow

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
Posted
18 minutes ago, dodgeredee said:

I'll take some wet slush if the it means the heaviest of the rain stays away from Cumbria after what they've been through - I expect it will be wet slush at best here, but M62 summit and that level of high ground could be looking at something a bit more wintry.  Shame it's coming in the middle of the day and not overnight.

As for the big day, the models are on a 12hr flip cycle at the moment, some suggest a northerly, other a southerly plume.... I expect it will be halfway in between.  Damp, grey and drizzly.

One thing I don't get hearing that snow could be a good thing over the higher ground is that surely once that milder air arrives with its rain, then rain coupled with rapid snow melt will cause the potential for flooding anyways? 

It looks like the rain may miss Cumbria largely but its still far from certain and how quickly it clears is also a bit of a question mark. 

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WillinGlossop Maestro

WillinGlossop

Posted
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire
Posted

Looking wintery up here tomorrow..... Im not going anywhere tomorrow but will be interesting to see if we get snow.... Nmm, arpege and gfs going for snow/sleet/freezing rain...... Temps have steadily been falling in forecasts... Was 6c for tomoz but max now 3-4c and dropping as precip gets heavier.... Maybe evap cooling event? 

My height should help i guess.... Currently 4c but wind making it feel sub zero.....

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cheshire snow Veteran

cheshire snow

Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
Posted
56 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

Look ing wintery up here tomorrow..... Im not going anywhere tomorrow but will be interesting to see if we get snow.... Nmm, arpege and gfs going for snow/sleet/freezing rain...... Temps have steadily been falling in forecasts... Was 6c for tomoz but max now 3-4c and dropping as precip gets heavier.... Maybe evap cooling event? 

My height should help i guess.... Currently 4c but wind making it feel sub zero.....

 Will

 You get snow in October LOL,no problems for your altitude

 C.S

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WillinGlossop Maestro

WillinGlossop

Posted
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire
Posted

Bet whatever happens here that the snake qnd woodhead passes will be closed tomorrow..... 

Not got above 4c here today.... Met had this area 6-8c today.... Wind making it feel brrrrr..... Nextdoor is on roof trying to put up xmas lights up outside..... Much nicer indoors with hot chocolate..... All packed for monday for malaysia..... 34c there yesterday with humidity making it feel like 43c

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pip22 Accomplished

pip22

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, warm weather not too hot, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
Posted

I'm looking to this weekend's cold snap. It is going to be interesting. :)

I hope the rain will turn to snow here by tommorow.  Fingers crossed. I hope the rain doesn't affect Cumbria too much.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
6 minutes ago, pip22 said:

I'm looking to this weekend's cold snap. It is going to be interesting. :)

I hope the rain will turn to snow here by tommorow.  Fingers crossed. I hope the rain doesn't affect Cumbria too much.

5 or 6 of the GFS ensembles have the precipitation slightly further S than the 12z op run- more in line with the 6z. So there is the potential for this to go S a tad yet.

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WillinGlossop Maestro

WillinGlossop

Posted
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire
Posted (edited)

How far north will it go? Your bets now..... It lookslike it will be quite heavy precip..... Looking across various models anything from 20-60mm so could some places end up with 30cm? Ie hillier places like kinder/ top of woodhead/snake? 

 

Peak district updated forecast.... 

image.png

Edited by WillinGlossop
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I Cumbria Marra I Seasoned

I Cumbria Marra I

Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
Posted

Might see some sleet tomorrow if im lucky

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iand61 Maestro

iand61

Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
Posted
2 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

Might see some sleet tomorrow if im lucky

 

looking at the forecast I should be in the sweet spot  but even I'm not getting my hopes up for anything more than a couple of hours of wet sleet.

maybe something more for the higher parts of the region but  this is a short lived cold event and once again it could well be the intensity of the rain rather than snow that is causing issues.

 

 

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Frost HoIIow Accomplished

Frost HoIIow

Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
Posted (edited)

I think elevation will be the key tomorrow, and perhaps the further north you are with that elevation as milder air is likely to move up from the south.

It goes from this with chilly air over most of the region http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/nmm_uk1-41-22-1.png?11-17

To this in the afternoon with the south of the region in milder air http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/nmm_uk1-41-26-1.png?11-17

But still all to play for these things can change at short notice.

 

Edited by Medlock Vale
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weatherobsuk Veteran

weatherobsuk

Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
Posted

At the moment i'm going for 60/40 of snow over the higher elevations, say above 1000ft. But that doesn't factor in precip cooling or local variables so i'm looking forward to it here, but not getting my hopes up too high.

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WillinGlossop Maestro

WillinGlossop

Posted
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire
Posted

Diane her usual self on nwtonight again.... Transient and not saying much more about it.... We shall see.... I do remember good evap cooling events in 1990s in iom... Predicted rain got ten inches of snow... Nowcasting i guess... Precip atm looks quite heavy...

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