South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - 18th February onwards

[Ben Lewis]

Well the latest beeb forecast has nothing of note shower wise through the day at least.. Thank god. Seems to be West Midlands mainly.

Through the evening and overnight some 'heavy showers' possible over our region but quickly pushing away north. No mention of thunderstorms. 

[Blessed Weather]

Just focussing on this evening and first part of the night, considering we're so close to the event there's a surprising level of disagreement between the NMM and Arpege high res models. NMM says any heavy/thundery rain misses East Anglia and the SE corner, with outbreaks intensifying from the Midlands north. Any unstable air also to our west.

NMM 20.00  22.00  CAPE & LI 20.00

Arpege on the other hand does show some outbreaks of heavy rain crossing EA & the SE corner, but has some unstable air (but not a strong signal) scooting up the east coast, so maybe just the coastal fringes hearing an odd rumble:

Arpege 20.00  22.00  MUCAPE 23.00

Not long to wait to see which is nearer the money!

[Ben Lewis]

28 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Just focussing on this evening and first part of the night, considering we're so close to the event there's a surprising level of disagreement between the NMM and Arpege high res models. NMM says any heavy/thundery rain misses East Anglia and the SE corner, with outbreaks intensifying from the Midlands north. Any unstable air also to our west.

NMM 20.00  22.00  CAPE & LI 20.00

Arpege on the other hand does show some outbreaks of heavy rain crossing EA & the SE corner, but has some unstable air (but not a strong signal) scooting up the east coast, so maybe just the coastal fringes hearing an odd rumble:

Arpege 20.00  22.00  MUCAPE 23.00

Not long to wait to see which is nearer the money!

Well if the Arpege is anything like its snowfall predictions I'd go with the MMM. 

Cloud quickly burning off here now, suns out :-) 

[alexisj9]

Started off with cloud and mist blowing in off the sea, the sky is looking more milky now with the sun shining through thin cloud, still a slight mist visible over the hills. Might look hazy all day here, southerly tend to do that, blowing sea mist over.

[tinybill]

I see on  the radar showers are point up over the channel could  be interesting in our area  later

[stainesbloke]

Disappointingly cloudy today after a bright start, at least it's quite mild here at 16C with just light winds. I noticed that some thunderstorms have kicked off over the Bay of Biscay 

[William Grimsley]

2 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Disappointingly cloudy today after a bright start, at least it's quite mild here at 16C with just light winds. I noticed that some thunderstorms have kicked off over the Bay of Biscay 

Which are going this way! Hehe!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Strikes now north of France good luck all!

[lassie23]

4 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Strikes now north of France good luck all!

There's always strikes in France, many of them non weather related.

[alexisj9]

5 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

There's always strikes in France, many of them non weather related.

lol, 

[Snoopie42]

1 hour ago, Surrey said:

Strikes now north of France good luck all!

Unfortunately they seem to be losing their inensity and electrical activity as they move into the Channel! Hopefully, if they do manage the journey across and make landfall then maybe they will intensify again? Think it is a long shot as i dont see the ingredients or trigger available this side of the channel, unless im missing something? Fingers crossed, we can only hope!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

5 minutes ago, Snoopie42 said:

Unfortunately they seem to be losing their inensity and electrical activity as they move into the Channel! Hopefully, if they do manage the journey across and make landfall then maybe they will intensify again? Think it is a long shot as i dont see the ingredients or trigger available this side of the channel, unless im missing something? Fingers crossed, we can only hope!

There just showers tapping into some Cape in that area, stuff might kick off in an hour or so more closer to hope however th chance is slim 

[<<Ryan>>]

Towers sprouting upwards to my south. 
Just had a light shower, huge drops of rain.
A few more strikes showing in the channel again now

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Another cell has gone up over land our side south of London I wonder what it does 

[Snoopie42]

Sferics being produced from this cell South of Brighton.....things could be starting to initiate?

can anyone in the Eastbourne area confirm?

Edited April 3, 2016 by Snoopie42

[LeeRoyxD]

In Seaford.. between Brighton - Eastbourne on the coast and just had our first loud rumble of thunder for 2016. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Bit of activity getting going 

[Coopsy]

Not seen the sun all day. Chilly morning, chilly now, had a few hours of warmish haze. Now raining. Disappointed is an understatement.

[Snoopie42]

Thanks for confirming @LeeRoyxD and congratulations! Enjoy and then send it my way LOL 

[Dami]

Typical I get a light shower my home town gets thunder.

[LeeRoyxD]

Woah an onslaught of loud rumbles of thunder and flashes now. 

[TROY]

Just had a nice loud thunderstorm in Seaford, not sure they were forecast. but its heading North east.

[<<Ryan>>]

Flash and a huge loud booming rumble! Yay! 

And again 

6/7 flashes and rumbles, moving away now

Edited April 3, 2016 by <<Ryan>>

[Biggin]

4 Rumbles so far

[Biggin]

7 now getting closer