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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Rocheydub Seasoned

Rocheydub

Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
Posted
58 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

the EPS (can only comment up until 240) have downgraded the cold potential from D7 to D12

Mathematics not your strong point? Can't see you replacing Rachel on countdown anytime soon! 

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted
1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

It’s almost like the final outcome isn’t decided yet and that the op and the ensemble can and will change so winter isn’t over.

I do agree with you on this one. But to play devils advocate:

Isn't this simply another rehash of what happened last week. Indeed its almost exactly the same with the same models siding the same way as well and we all know how that went, plus climatology of this country would argue that the ECM solution is probably more likely, even withdrawing out the argument about last week.

A little part me thinks the GFS is going to buckle again tomorrow to be honest, just like last week, but equally to act like its a done deal is probably over the top as well!!

Plus the next 5-6 days do hold some interest, not for everyone, but there is enough out to warrant watching, regardless of the models longer term.

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Kentish Snowman in Yorks Experienced

Kentish Snowman in Yorks

Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
Posted

Any news on the ICON 18z (@shaky)?!

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January Snowstorm Accomplished

January Snowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
Posted (edited)

Well for me the short term holds a good deal of potential. I don't believe this has anything to do with SSWs just standard winter fayre..long term of course the ecm  looks more plausible. Same as last week without proper ( indeed any) heights to our North nothing can sustain imo

Edited by January Snowstorm
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snowbob Seasoned

snowbob

Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
Posted
Just now, Steve Murr said:

Yes

Big correction towards UKMO - more amplified @114 

What’s your take on this @Steve Murr

normally get some lengthy posts on what to look out for on future runs

do you see it as mediocre cold for this winter

 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
1 minute ago, shaky said:

Its brilliant at 120 hours and joins gfs with the smaller shortwave!!wow!!!

Well, if you say it's brilliant, it must be brilliant, shaky!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:yahoo:

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Its brilliant at 120 hours and joins gfs with the smaller shortwave!!wow!!!

looks like going with the GFS feature! still expecting GFS to drop that feature, as it's not on EC and ukmo

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, if you say it's brilliant, it must be brilliant, shaky!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:yahoo:

All we need now is gfs to stay on board and ecm can just p**s off!!always playin scrooge!

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
15 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Mathematics not your strong point? Can't see you replacing Rachel on countdown anytime soon! 

Not sure exactly what you're point is - depends whether you are capable of making an assumption on a chart that is 48 hours away or not.

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snowbob Seasoned

snowbob

Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
Posted
Just now, kold weather said:

Certainly a better 18z ICON, both lows look in a better position. Good movement towards the GFS on that run,. but it once again highlights the simple fact that things are shifting around still and its not certain.

How’s the south looking mate

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WhiteFox Community Regular

WhiteFox

Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
Posted
47 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Good to see that this thread is getting worked up by charts 7+ days away.

Up to day 5 things are looking ok. From there on any lateral thinking will show that this is not a bad position.

Indeed. Has Christmas been cancelled? All this furore over what is a tiny difference in a run at a time frame that is nearly a week away.

As for background signals, they are all still there. As many people seem to like to anthropomorphise the models, put it this way: cold has been dealt a strong hand. The problem is that it appears that not-so-cold (not mild I may add) has also been dealt a strong hand. It may seem that not-so-cold has the upper hand now, but does cold have a trump card up its sleeve? We're entering the period of winter when the PV would naturally be waning anyway having passed the peak period. We also have a more favourable phase of MJO upcoming, plus further downwelling yet to (possibly) impact further on the AO. All this adds up only to probabilities, not guarantees, but conditions are only becoming more favourable for cold, not less. 

In the meantime, it may be worth looking to closer time periods to see what may be coming sooner rather than later.

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted
1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Not liking the ECM mean at T168 and definitely not liking it at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.9429f89cddc4d29c600d032cb1c9774f.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.8deb337f1df52417fcc1752357e1a668.jpg

At T168 because the low is too far west, at T240 because it is an absolute hellmouth.  

We need:

image.thumb.jpg.49bc03a5f7fa1bba066572b3e549cb30.jpg

Mike if that T168 mean low is not further east in 48 hours time I will throw darts at the screen, because every other blinking time those ECM lows will correct east :0

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted
Just now, snowbob said:

How’s the south looking mate

Better than it was on the 12z ICON lets put it that way! Hard to know how it evolves after 120hrs, though the first low is certainly heading far enough south though for us.

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lawrenk Veteran

lawrenk

Posted
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and ice days
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
Posted
2 minutes ago, snowbob said:

How’s the south looking mate

Rain all the way I suspect.

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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted

Snowfall possibilities for the south look good on ICON 18z, from T63 through T120, the uppers remain around or colder than -5 at 850hpa so not a bad start!

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snowbob Seasoned

snowbob

Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Better than it was on the 12z ICON lets put it that way! Hard to know how it evolves after 120hrs, though the first low is certainly heading far enough south though for us.

Ok il wait for your 144 gfs commentary 

lol

Can’t disagree with your posts mate just a bit of banter

 keep the thread upbeat

Edited by snowbob
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Kentish Snowman in Yorks Experienced

Kentish Snowman in Yorks

Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
Posted
5 minutes ago, snowbob said:

How’s the south looking mate

Too expensive and full of traffic!  

ICON looks encouraging just need GFS to play nice now....

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
5 minutes ago, lawrenk said:

Rain all the way I suspect.

Personally, I find the term 'wet snow' to be much more positive...:santa-emoji:

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snowbob Seasoned

snowbob

Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
Posted
Just now, kold weather said:

If the 18z ICON shows us one thing is that the models can and will shift around more. Whilst the 12z ECM suite was a blow for sure, its not a done deal yet...

(ps, now watch the 18z GFS turn to mush!)

Or it might flip to a south of the m4 snowstorm 

you just never know

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