Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

The point being is that ridging is being modelled on ecm and gfs. Details of where it might be and go is why it’s interesting to me. Can it be in a position which does not benefit us? Of course but if there is nothing being modelled then it’s hard to get to cold.

Yes sorry haven't woke up properly yet double option on offer. Not sure if the east based ridging is my thing. Recently it just seems to sit there but get the 850s in place and guess wouldn't be so bad

[syed2878]

7 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

End of BBC update caught my eye:

Any threat of cold and snow in January? A higher chance than last January, but we may have to wait until later in the month.

One suspects they think a SSW may occur early-mid Jan to influence weather later in Jan?

  indeed I agree with you that that update did make me sit up and take notice it looks like we might be in for a interesting January.

[Griff]

144s

 

And 240s

Only 2 days ago it was the end of days due to lack of amplification, still a long way to go and perhaps a bust after all, but interesting nevertheless... 

[IDO]

14 minutes ago, swfc said:

Yes sorry haven't woke up properly yet double option on offer. Not sure if the east based ridging is my thing. Recently it just seems to sit there but get the 850s in place and guess wouldn't be so bad

The upstream Alaskan ridge was the precursor to our last cold spell, and although we may get better cold pooling on this 0z gfs run and thankfully no Russian high, this is a more lengthy process to getting snowier conditions, and inevitably more risk:

  

Not sure this will be the solution as we get a Pacific cut-off low and a second wave in the Pacific? The signals remain promising for the time being and there does appear to be background whispers becoming more resonant.

GEM is not dissimilar but messy in the Atlantic sector with troughing and a cut-off low, spoiling any ridge development.

gem d10>  ecm d10>

ecm also similar in style, substance less assured. Models coming into the d10 time-scale for an attempt at another shot of cold. Maybe just in time, as the trend is for the tPV to regroup with the alpha PV seemingly moving to its usual home:

d8-16 gefs mean>  

[Daniel*]

It’s funny it looked like like we were going to lose Russian high models now saying think again.

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

144s

 

And 240s

Only 2 days ago it was the end of days due to lack of amplification, still a long way to go and perhaps a bust after all, but interesting nevertheless... 

Yes Griff it's like someone is throwing a switch isn't it. Still complex imo but very interesting watching the PV being pushed and pulled with the forcing. Any forcing from the Pacific sector + the artic high may be the final piece of luck needed. The post mucka showed been a point of interest plus yours. Just a note from me, if I seem convoluted In my posts it's my bipolar and fibromyalgia. The dreaded brain fog, not freezing fog tho. Thanks

[Eagle Eye]

@Steve Murr come back, Winter's not over yet and the charts are still believing. The question is do ya feel lucky well do ya.

Lookingblike a Polar low or an Eastern ridge crossing the UK. 

Edited December 13, 2020 by XanderP007

[northwestsnow]

I prefer UKMO to EC at 144...

EC looks slightly more aggressive with energy near Greenland and slightly more expensive heights to our SE...

 

[dragan]

due to the lack of heights north, i mentioned we could be looking at weather from the Atlantic for a decent amount of time (about 10 days ago i said this)

Because the heights to the north are not strong enough, this encourages low pressure to move and behave as it does normally for our part of the word, this according to the latest GFS and ECM.

This obviously can’t last forever, and i wouldn’t be surprised, looking at the output to see high pressure sit very near to us, creating a cloudy full affair, perhaps 2/3 weeks down the line.

[PiscesStar]

1 hour ago, Mucka said:

ECM 168 is a huge change in the Op output re the blocking to the E and Scandi ridge

It is actually a similar longwave pattern to GFS Op just with more amplitude to the E

 

I expect Mr Murr will be making a reappearance at this rate.

 

GFS 00z ensembles (Central England)

slowly, slowly?

Morning People. It seems as though the ensembles remain steadfast about a cool Down after after 20th. If its still there on subsequent runs surely this is indicative of better things??  

[Daniel*]

56 minutes ago, swfc said:

Morning ec throws a spanner in works at 216 hrs and ridge from South. Still not all bad and fi ridging into Atlantic at day ten 

It’s terrible imo would not like to see this verify at all. No quick route out of that. The joys of day 10  

 

Day 10 from EPS offers much more hope with Atlantic ridge 

[dragan]

1 minute ago, Snowfish2 said:

Morning People. It seems as though the ensembles remain steadfast about a cool Down after after 20th. If its still there on subsequent runs surely this is indicative of better things??  

better things??? 

i think you could be right about a cool down, this would be from the winds veering more northwesterly, potentially bring temps (especially at night) somewhere close to average in clearer spells.

Day time maxima would be around normal, i feel, moderated by the wind

[swfc]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I prefer UKMO to EC at 144...

EC looks slightly more aggressive with energy near Greenland and slightly more expensive heights to our SE...

 

Morning nw. I'd agree with that. Il also give you 25 quid for Heighths to go away

[northwestsnow]

Not entirely sure what to make of the mean on EC...

Hoped for better ,still to flat to our west and flabby to the south east....

This is such a durable pattern to break from...not sure EC is as favourable with its MJO projections ?

Edited December 13, 2020 by northwestsnow

[northwestsnow]

Having looked at the 850s I would suggest there is decent support for a mid Atlantic ridge on the EC mean...

We might just get a more seasonal Christmas...

Pondering if Glasgow might be worth a shot at a white Christmas....

Edited December 13, 2020 by northwestsnow

[swfc]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Having looked at the 850s I would suggest there is decent support for a mid Atlantic ridge on the EC mean...

We might just get a more seasonal Christmas...

Yes I'd go with that. Think it would be limited cold initially with little snow but as you say seasonal and hopefully bright. That said 6z will probably show a raging northerly and white out now!!!

[northwestsnow]

That Eps day 10 looks very appealing !!

[Man With Beard]

ECM 00z ensembles is a return to the pattern of previous runs - by Dec 24th, about 70% put a weak ridge near Iberia leading to SWlies for the UK, and most of the other runs throw up a weak Atlantic ridge allowing a quick northerly.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

chart of the morning.  But it’s the control and how it gets there is a massive leap of faith.  Nice to look at though.  
 

I think ECM day 10 is primed to give us some seasonal Christmas weather and not a SW to NE flow.  Still on the table for Christmas cold

 BFTP

[bluearmy]

I’m a little concerned that so many seem to placing their eggs in the MJO basket .... if it were that straightforward we wouldn’t need anything other than a reliable MJO prediction ...... it’s a contributory factor to take into account but it’s not really predictable how different amplifications with different enso variables deliver certain outcomes and what the lead times are beyond the reading .....

simply saying that the MJO in a certain region will promote some upstream amplification is I think reasonable but to begin to relate the phase to specific features in our part of the hemisphere is a stretch when the projection of the MJO isn’t that reliable 

[DavidS]

I’m not sure what the GEM was drinking last nigh, but it is very different to GFS and ECM. This at D10 but the differences start before then. It sends the jet all the way to Turkey.

 

[mb018538]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I’m a little concerned that so many seem to placing their eggs in the MJO basket .... if it were that straightforward we wouldn’t need anything other than a reliable MJO prediction ...... it’s a contributory factor to take into account but it’s not really predictable how different amplifications with different enso variables deliver certain outcomes and what the lead times are beyond the reading .....

simply saying that the MJO in a certain region will promote some upstream amplification is I think reasonable but to begin to relate the phase to specific features in our part of the hemisphere is a stretch when the projection of the MJO isn’t that reliable 

We don’t have other baskets available at the moment! Got to pin our hopes on something!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

15 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM 00z ensembles is a return to the pattern of previous runs - by Dec 24th, about 70% put a weak ridge near Iberia leading to SWlies for the UK, and most of the other runs throw up a weak Atlantic ridge allowing a quick northerly.

I’ve just through GFS ensemble and much more pleasing to the eye.  So they are at odds currently 

 

BFTP

Edited December 13, 2020 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[bluearmy]

16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

That Eps day 10 looks very appealing !!

1.  Azores ridge (likely transient moving east but more solid into Iberia) 

2. Icelandic trough (but not low heights compared to normal dec feature ) 

3. W Russian ridge (e euro has edged east - looks a solid feature) 

4. Mid Atlantic ridge (wouldn’t expect this to sustain given the Canadian vortex )

we actually have three extended eps clusters today and they offer more than a little passing interest re blocking features 

 

[bluearmy]

9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

We don’t have other baskets available at the moment! Got to pin our hopes on something!

I think we are still very much in the game  ....of course some of the colder looking extended output could be a consequence of the particular model responding to its MJO projection ! 

initial look at the nwp today wasn’t encouraging but delving deeper revealed not too much change from yesterday .....