Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?

[Zak M]

The 12z GFS is also showing a northerly in time for Christmas Day!

   

Edited December 13, 2020 by Zak M

[TSNWK]

Heights over Greenland much better this run.. however for our part of the word it’s all shifted east and we are not seeing the northerly as well.

im actually a bit confused now.. but it’s positive that do appear to be developing a theme of heights to our north west in the run up to Christmas.. rest of the run as usual is for entertainment only, but always open foe eye candy!
 

Edited December 13, 2020 by TSNWK

[Ali1977]

If anything close to this verifies it’ll be amazing, what a chart. Yes it’s way out, and probably at the extreme end but it’s great to see.

[Matt H]

Where has this come from all of a sudden? I need a lie down.

[Jason M]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

I was thinking the very same thing myself yesterday on gfs high and low res at 192 which it was notorious for a few years back., however for some reason I have thing thought in my mind that it know runs at the same resolution throughout its who run following an upgrade a year or two ago.

Not sure on that tbh. Either way, I feel day 8 is a good check point. Once we get further out than it becomes pointless in my view. Just look at how awful the 240 hours ECM is and the fact it predicts about 30 northerly outbreaks a year! I actually think ECM at day 10 performs worse than could be expected from a random number generator. There are odd occasions where you can use the longer term output but that's usually when every chart in sight is showing a big fat Bartlett high . 

[Captain Shortwave]

As the 12z come out. Just some glimmers of hope just in time for Christmas.

This was the mean for the big day on the 06z GFS

Ridge west and trough east with a flow from an Arctic maritime source.  The current operational is following this nicely. Now does this narrative have shoots elsewhere?

ECM day ten mean

 

You can sort of see the amplification starting to occur, there is on both signs that a split jet could also occur to our west. It is a long way off but the next bout of interest is intriguingly timed.

[Tim Bland]

Merry Xmas from the GFS

[Ols500]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Merry Xmas from the GFS

northerly will just probably collapse F 

[Tim Bland]

Anyone seen the PV anywhere ? It may collapse but with a northern Hemisphere like this there will be a reload!

Edited December 13, 2020 by Tim Bland

[tight isobar]

19 hours ago, tight isobar said:

Certainly doesn’t.. the dice is loaded.. for the Xmas period... and that isn’t a ramp -or massive overview...@intresting is an- understatement!!!

The sarga gains... @amplification-. @ ARCTIC outbreaks-possibilities.. 

Edited December 13, 2020 by tight isobar

[SLEETY]

looks like greenland high building,could be stonker at the end.

[Ravelin]

3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

looks like greenland high building,could be stonker at the end.

Yep, it sure does

[Mike Poole]

23 minutes ago, Jason M said:

But its worth noting that GFS (opp) resolution drops notably after 192 hours. That's one of the reasons why I generally use day 8 as my benchmark for giving any potential cold spell credence. If something survives through that 192 timestamp only then do I sit up and pay any real attention. Over the last couple of years nothing very cold has survived contact with that point and the wait goes on. IMHO though, the current position isn't hopeless by any means but I'm waiting to see if those Iberian heights clear or become sticky (as per recent years). If heights stay over Spain any cold weather of note can be dismissed. All to play for at the moment though.

No it doesn’t.  The old version used to drop resolution at day 10.  But the FV3 version maintains high resolution throughout the 16 days. 

[That ECM]

Fun to look at. Few runs that have shown heights. Same as if it was not great, let’s see where it sits. Hopefully more ens on board.

[northwestsnow]

Somebody shout Steve Murr !!!

Is this Steve's equivalent to Ian Brown's WTF moment?

Towel launched and 24 hours later NWP heading towards a cold spell.

Unbelievable Jeff.

Edited December 13, 2020 by northwestsnow

[WxHerts]

All this and yet we still end up under a southerly lol. There will be some beautiful ens though, and GEM is also great if you haven't checked it out yet.

.

[Mike Poole]

GEM run also very good today.  Great WAA west of Greenland, T240:

[TSNWK]

Nice run.. enjoyed it and it kept going if anything re inforceing the momentum of previous couple of runs to build heights to our north west just in time for some Christmas cheer... 

[Captain Shortwave]

GEM suggesting the same scenario by day ten.

 

Similar idea here, the Euro high will retrogress into the Atlantic to deliver the Scandi trough beyond here.

Lets hope that this trend can be held.

[Matt H]

1 minute ago, WxHerts said:

All this and yet we still end up under a southerly lol. There will be some beautiful ens though, and GEM is also great if you haven't checked it out yet.

.

Yes, GEM is a beauty!

[booferking]

1 minute ago, Frosty Winter said:

Yes, GEM is a beauty!

Gem is

[northwestsnow]

Is it too soon to wheel my fav GIF out?

Ps hope the mods don't mind a bit of fun , its been such a crap year.

[Eagle Eye]

Southerners hert ready to bring out your happy faces. 

 

[bluearmy]

My musings on the 06z gefs provided for the latter stages of this run with west based neg NAO a risk based on the undercut of the wedge . ..... wonder how the gefs will line up on the 12z in this respect ....

[Mucka]

Plenty of variability in GFS ensembles out to 192 and quite a few hurdles to jump over and hoops to jump through before we be confident of cold over Xmas let alone chance of snow.

Thena gain GFSw as showing an Atlantic dominated Xmas just 48 hours ago. Cautious optimism.