Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?

[Drifter]

It’s actually quite impressive how the GFS manages to balls up the setup at the end from that promising position. 
 

Looking promising for now though. 

Edited December 13, 2020 by Drifter

[Day 10]

Good UKMO, GFS, GEM. Intrigued what the ECM comes up with later as it wasn't all that great this morning. 

Positive trends though, so far so good  

[mother nature rocks]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Steve lives in the South East of England and I little sign of any snow in that neck of the woods in the model output.

So sign of a really potent Northerly either. 

Some getting carried away and ECM not on board.

Wouldn’t say getting carried away is really true! Seasonal doesn’t just mean snow as I’m sure you understand!! Personally it would be typical 2020 if we did have a white Xmas- we can dream can’t we?? As long as the models are showing colder air aloft around that time there is always a chance!! 

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

My musings on the 06z gefs provided for the latter stages of this run with west based neg NAO a risk based on the undercut of the wedge . ..... wonder how the gefs will line up on the 12z in this respect ....

That is certainly one possible spoiler but there are others as well not least the Atlantic ridge is not even certain yet but from where we were 48 hours ago prospects for cold have improved considerably.

I will worry more about spoilers if and once a cold scenario is modelled across the output, until then it more hope than expectation.

[Skullzrulerz]

Let's get this into the reliable timeframe before anything folks 

I don't think we need a repeat of toys being thrown out of the window again 

[clark3r]

Been watching a possible cold spell over the Xmas period brewing over the last few days now, must say chances of cold are increasing over the Xmas period, but we all know it’s still too far ahead to predict, and models are likely to change, let’s hope models continue to increase the chances of cold for the festive period in the next few days. My gut feeling if we are going to see a white Xmas this is the year the way the year has gone. 

[Mucka]

My expectations

Improving GFS ensembles.

ECM comes on board tonight.

Pub run shows snowmageddon

Monday it all goes TU 

 

sorry, after years of model watching drama the emotional scars can run deep. 

Here is to a safe, secure and improving progression  toward seasonal Xmas cold and snow.

 

[SLEETY]

Lets  hope the ecm gives us a good cold run,if its similar to this morning I would expect more posters to be writing off this Winter seeing how volatile it is in here at the moment

[bluearmy]

Iberian ridge v strong on the gefs day 8/9. It will have to retrogress to allow deep cold to get across the U.K.  Scots could do ok though ! 

[That ECM]

T240 mean and control  gfs

Edited December 13, 2020 by That ECM

[Sweatyman]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Iberian ridge v strong on the gefs day 8/9. It will have to retrogress to allow deep cold to get across the U.K.  Scots could do ok though ! 

Flippin if it aint Russia its bloomin Spain

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Iberian ridge v strong on the gefs day 8/9. It will have to retrogress to allow deep cold to get across the U.K.  Scots could do ok though ! 

Yes the Iberian heights have scuppered us many times before ....

They need to be seduced by the mid Atlantic heights and pulled as far west as possible ..

We have a ticket though mate, we didn't have a dime to buy a ticket a few days ago !!

[Mucka]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Iberian ridge v strong on the gefs day 8/9. It will have to retrogress to allow deep cold to get across the U.K.  Scots could do ok though ! 

I will take this as a 10 day mean

 

A strong Iberian ridge is largely dependant on the upper trough not clearing cleanly East.

So long as the Atlantic lows phase with that trough as it moves E we will be in business.

If not then a West based Neg NAO becomes a real possibility but that might also offer an opportunity of rebuilding blocking to the E and something from the E late Dec, early Jan

Plenty to play for, palce your bets.

 

Edited December 13, 2020 by Mucka

[BARRY]

Lets hope it's in the right tier when the cold dou's arrive

[Ice Day]

More cautious optimism this afternoon, GFS was a very good run out in FI.  Looks like the Control is also going with the trend,  with a cold Christmas incoming?

 

[Tim Bland]

Can’t moan at that for a mean at day 12 / xmas day! 

[Ali1977]

Christmas Day and it’s a day for a sleigh !! Look at that for a mean, nice northerly with -6c mean uppers touching Scotland. Yes, it’s not éleveurs breaking and it’s 11 days away - but it’s Xmas day ️

We just need 22 more ECM Runs, 44 for GFS runs , and a partridge in a pear tree and we’ll be there

Edited December 13, 2020 by Ali1977

[Scott Ingham]

29 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

My musings on the 06z gefs provided for the latter stages of this run with west based neg NAO a risk based on the undercut of the wedge . ..... wonder how the gefs will line up on the 12z in this respect ....

Completely agree. I have the same thoughts. Its logical movement as Phase 8 and 1 are showing on the RMM plots 

What are your thoughts? I still believe this is all moving too quickly. I wouldn't have expected heigh rises in Greenland until after Christmas. 

Modeos picking up on Phase 7 of the MJO and over reacting or coming out of cod straight into phase 7 and bypassing 6?

Edited December 13, 2020 by Scott Ingham

[Zak M]

7 minutes ago, Mucka said:

 

Plenty to play for, palce your bets

 

I thought you said 'Palace your bets' at first and as a Tottenham fan, don't even get me started.

The GFS mean is actually pretty decent for Christmas Day - upper ridging to our west and troughing to our east, and even shows the -4c isotherm getting into central Britain. Good setup. Let's just hope this comes off.

The control looks to be heading in the right direction too

Edited December 13, 2020 by Zak M

[northwestsnow]

If EC comes on board and Steve returns I really will wheel out the....

Cmon EC get that Mid Atlantic ridge into the game for Christmas !

[bluearmy]

The Iberian ridge does sink away se as the trough drifts across courtesy of the building mid atlantic ridge 

[clark3r]

16 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Lets  hope the ecm gives us a good cold run,if its similar to this morning I would expect more posters to be writing off this Winter seeing how volatile it is in here at the moment

Ecm to bring the beast from the east for Xmas no only joking not expecting a great ecm 

[Tim Bland]

Control run adamant of a white Xmas - see below last 2 runs 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

The Iberian ridge does sink away se as the trough drifts across courtesy of the building mid atlantic ridge 

Oh I do like the sound of that!

Looking at MJO hoping for a spark..

[That ECM]

Many in this lot people would take on Christmas Day.