Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?

[Man With Beard]

13 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I’ve just through GFS ensemble and much more pleasing to the eye.  So they are at odds currently 

 

BFTP

It's possible we're looking at different charts, here's 5 of the first 9 ensembles for Christmas Day on the charts I can see. A NWly could follow on a couple by 26/27th to be fair.

EDIT: sorry I see you've updated your post to make it specific you're looking at GEFS, I was referring to ECM ensembles, apologies if I didn't make this clear

Edited December 13, 2020 by Man With Beard

[Eagle Eye]

Certainly an easternly low good ol snow possible if the temperature does get lower. 

Polar low has dissapeared of the charts. 

Litteraly. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

It's possible we're looking at different charts, here's 5 of the first 9 ensembles for Christmas Day on the charts I can see. A NWly could follow on a couple by 26/27th to be fair.

EDIT: sorry I see you've updated your post to make it specific you're looking at GEFS, I was referring to ECM ensembles, apologies if I didn't make this clear

It was my initial misread

 

BFTP

[bluearmy]

The gfsp more  interesting than the op with big amplification  ..shame it’s not verifying any better !  

[Tim Bland]

Awesome GFS and GFSp this morning! Just need the ensembles to catch up to before selling the kids toys to bet on a white Christmas ...

Edited December 13, 2020 by Tim Bland

[Methuselah]

Much better runs, today, especially for those of us who've barely seen a snowflake, for nigh-on three years!

    

    

    

Would be stonking were it to happen...But duff predictions based on Day 10 charts are hardly uncommon -- winter 2020-21 was being given a Code Blue, only two-days' back...?

 

[Jeremy Shockey]

GEFS 0z 2m temps ( Yorkshire )

Trending colder from 22nd Dec according to GEFS 0z.

Some really nice cold options in there including the Control and the Op. ( where the -8 isotherm is over parts of the UK )

Can we get N Atlantic amplification in the right place to deliver a Northerly just in time for Christmas or not ......that is the question ?

[markw2680]

Finally some light has been shown, definitely a downward trend starting to show hopefully with less scatter in the coming days, yes things change at the flick of a switch but you need to start somewhere so let it firm up please

[MATTWOLVES 3]

9 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

A thoroughly enjoyable thread tonight,  thanks for some brill contributions...

Onwards and upwards to the 00z runs...

And tbh mate there are some positive signs amongst those 0z ens again.. Many options seem to be on the table, and we are most definitely in the game... I ain't been so excited since I stuffed the Turkey last year..

[Eagle Eye]

Top 5 Christmas day models

5)An eastern low across the UK probably not much to get excited at though

4)A central low across the UK around the same pae if you're further west with number 5

3)A good low the more north you get perhaps some mountainous snow near the midlands if you're lucky. 

2)A very windy and southernly low A Scandanavian Dish Served Cold. 

1)A big Scandanavian Low across the UK a jolly good day for most of The UK

Merry Xmas

Edited December 13, 2020 by XanderP007

[The PIT]

Can show that times are bed when people are hunting for cold in deep fi. Thought there had been a massive shift closer to reliable time frame sadly alas not. Just the normal jumping around in la la land and nothing to get excited about.

[SLEETY]

Usual rubbish 06 run if your looking for cold,until fl probably

[tesaro]

1 hour ago, XanderP007 said:

Certainly an easternly low good ol snow possible if the temperature does get lower. 

Polar low has dissapeared of the charts. 

Litteraly. 

It’s disappeared because there was never a Polar Low in the first place. The transformation from a vortex to a polar low is usually very rapid And is rarely accurately forecast 24-48 Hours before the event.

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Usual rubbish 06 run if your looking for cold,until fl probably

Yeah no one likes to see that in the Atlantic do they?

[KTtom]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Usual rubbish 06 run if your looking for cold,until fl probably

Was just thinking its shaping up quite neicely at...er....day 10 To be fair there is some consistancy for a mid Atlantic ridge of some sort round day 10..until then i wouldnt expect any changes from the mild southwesterlies.

[Ice Day]

Good consistency between the GFS 6z and 0z at 246..... that's highly unusual!!!!

  

[SLEETY]

Good consistency at being correct? or hopelessly incorrect as usual at that timeframe

Edited December 13, 2020 by SLEETY

[IDO]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Usual rubbish 06 run if your looking for cold,until fl probably

As we always say, not only do you need the NH pattern to promote cold to mid-latitude but you need the luck in getting the cold to the UK? Very subtle differences comparing 06z to 0z but hit and miss for the UK on the first shot!

06z>0z>

06z> 0z>

[Ventnor Viking]

it really will be on a knife edge what happens here. The cold is not far away and just some slight changes in the positioning of the incoming LP will make all the difference. This will dictate where the amplification will take place. It will only take a small change for these things to happen. However, it could also go the other way and turn very mild. Its so close and things wont show up until last minute. 

[Drifter]

White Xmas for Aberdeen on this run. 

*looks for Paddy Power account details*

[Jeremy Shockey]

GFS 6z Christmas Day

 

The only thing that i am looking for in the GFS 6Z  is some evidence of N Atlantic amplification pre Christmas .........and we have that at least ( bringing a Northerly )

Edited December 13, 2020 by Jeremy Shockey

[bluearmy]

Topper, drifter or sinker ??

[swfc]

Even given my mind set there is nay anything going forward that points either way mild or cold? Sit back, watch the output, it is what it's just be warey like

[Frosty.]

OK...I haven’t checked the 6z yet but the 0z op..and GEFS mean indicates a cold Christmas with at least a chance of snow..which would be a vast improvement on recent pathetic Christmas periods..nah scrub that..I mean entire winters!

[IDO]

On this run on the second shot (when ridge topples) we get a cold feed, but unlike the 0z miss out on the initial cold so by d11-12:

0z>06z>

...the UK is still getting some cold; a good trend, different solutions getting us a blast whatever?

Post-d10 looks a minefield ATM as to how it all develops! That is assuming the models reaction to the MJO signal is correct and as we get nearer to T0 it does not suffer interference and is masked by other variables? Hopefully some interesting charts in the next week?

Not so worried about the toppler as cold is in lower latitudes due to the Arctic high so we could still see some interest in that event?