Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Steve Murr

...

When you get caught peeking around the corner

IMGUR.COM

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Imgur: The magic of the Internet

 

Steve will of course be viewing the models - but I doubt the current output has him looking in here yet ......and certainly not posting 

[Day 10]

Overall positive runs again this morning as the trend continues to grow toward a colder outlook and maybe even some snow for the lucky few on the big day who knows!

It seems like forever we have been looking towards the last third of the month to see what transpires and it's still only the 13th!

The main three this morning at day 6.

A fairly decent match, although I would say the ECM doesn't look as good with it making more of those horrid purples western side of Greenland we hate to see. More unsettled conditions to come but I think most realize that was always to be the case at this juncture.

Fast forward to day 10 however and things are starting to look interesting.

The latest GFS's take.

That horrible stuck pattern we have had to endure finally starting to change, can we continue in this vein and end up something similar to the control?

Not a bad GFS day 10 improving ensemble mean either.

For balance however, the ECM doesn't look anywhere near as good to me, unsettled throughout and less amplified at day 10.

Still many twists & turns yet i feel, onto the 12z's!

[Eagle Eye]

that low comes out of nowhere looking like the gulf has given up for us and sent it to Spin instead if this continues could mean a good start to 2021.

[Allseasons-Si]

JFF...

i raise you pert 15.

gefs ens,certainly trending colder over the Xmas period.

 

Edited December 13, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[feb1991blizzard]

Decent dip in the ens - decent and nothing more yet.

[Jeremy Shockey]

GEFS 06z mean for Christmas Day

To be honest that is not a bad mean for 25th Dec. There will be some very decent cold runs in there with a Northerly component and good uppers i suspect.

 

 

 Trending Colder ! 2m temps GEFS 06z ( Yorkshire )

Edited December 13, 2020 by Jeremy Shockey

[Scott Ingham]

1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Got 8/1 for Norwich.  It’s 3/1 now...

The timing is still consistent....last week of December, and as it gets closer the potential cold thrust remains at that time on the models.  It won’t be before as our window imo is and remains the last week.

 

 

 BFTP

New Year or a day or 2 maximum before

[Scott Ingham]

Mr Hugo is also seeing this now.

This for me is all MJO and AAM driven

[Ice Day]

GFS 0z v 6z

0z  6z 

More colder options showing on the 6z, Christmas and Boxing Day's seem to be favoured for cold.  Very Very early days though and too early to be a notable trend, but I'd rather see this than not!

Edit - Just to confirm that this is for my location, looks even better further north!

Edited December 13, 2020 by Ice Day

[Scott Ingham]

16 minutes ago, dragan said:

This post removed

Whos mentioned absolute arctic full on conditions? Is that what seasonal weather is? 

Let's just see what happens i wrote if you check my posts that im taking a few days off as this place will be depressive with bad runs up until nearer to time to the end of the month with the delayed tropical forcing and come back on cue this week.

I believe we'll see a cold spell the end of the month and a better one end of January ive not moved from it. In the meantime stop your tiresome trolling. Your meant to be an adult

Edited December 13, 2020 by Blessed Weather

[SqueakheartLW]

Just had to deliver this update here after what I have just seen with the 06z GFS and its ensembles

A new record so far since I started these GFS updates with now 15 of 32 options going for cold or very cold for Christmas Day. As always a mix of anticyclonic, odds on snow and marginal snow options in there. There's so many to pick out from just that 1 run

GFS 06z Operational Run

As with the 00z the operational run has yet again come out to play with a northerly potentially giving some snow showers on the big day

GFS 06z Control Run

You know things are looking good when both the operational and control run are showing almost the same identical pattern like they are here. Like the operational a northerly is showing with a snow threat for Christmas Day

GFS 06z Member 1

A more anticyclonic option here so more cold and frost than snow for Christmas Day

GFS 06z Member 2

A transient ridge here for Christmas Day giving a cold seasonable day at least with frost and fog possible. Just unfortunate where this run progresses after the big day into long fetch SW winds and milder air

GFS 06z Member 5

Another cold and frosty anticyclonic seasonable option for Christmas Day here

GFS 06z Member 7

This one looks like a real snow maker in the north especially whilst southern parts are milder with rain. The pattern remains decent after this with the block staying in place and low pressures riding around the southern side of it throwing rain into the colder air producing an ongoing threat of snow over the UK

GFS 06z Member 8

Another northerly option here with a snow shower threat. More decent than the first options but still not the coldest northerly in the set

GFS 06z Member 10

A less cold option here so more wintry showers than snow showers but still a threat here, especially in the N and SE

GFS 06z Member 13

Next northerly option for Christmas. A threat of snow showers here, mainly for the N as well as the E coast

GFS 06z Member 15

This is more of a transition day event. Looking at this chart it appears high pressure is retrogressing towards Iceland and Greenland. Good news is when I went through the rest of the run that happened and the cold northerly locked in right to the end of the run

GFS 06z Member 16

Another retrogression attempt showing on this Christmas Day chart but further advanced than the last option so colder air has already arrived, bringing a threat of snow. However unlike the last run the high collapses down to central Europe and we end up in a long fetch SSW wind instead bringing very mild air up from Africa

GFS 06z Member 21

A bit of a transitional ridge between low pressure systems which has cold air caught up within it so cold and frosty for Christmas Day here. On this run the high just sticks around so inversion cold becomes the main player here as milder uppers ride over the high pressure

GFS 06z Member 28

A cold high pressure area here with frost and fog in the N and W especially. The S and E have more of a breeze from a NE direction and a threat of wintry showers towards the E. This high moves to our NE and threatens a beasterly after this but the Atlantic breaks through and we end up in mild SW winds instead

GFS 06z Member 29

An anticyclonic Christmas Day here with frost and fog and quite cold uppers too. Could go either way looking at that chart in the days to follow. On this particular run we eventually turn milder but not without a snow event before that happens

GFS 06z Member 30

Last but by no means least the coldest option of them all and the most potent northerly option. Snow showers a real risk here, especially in the N and E. Even colder uppers close to the north and they look like they could push into the UK. On this run we do get the -10c isotherm into the UK but the northerly topples and we end up in mild SW winds by the end of the run

[Scott Ingham]

28 minutes ago, dragan said:

SNIPPED

i am looking at the charts and saying what i see:

If you take charts at face value and cant read and know why they might be wrong due to background signals known bias means trends and clusters then no offense you need to spend a bit more time learning. No one takes individual runs and proclaims thats what's being shown as the end result.

Newbies. Please take no notice. Look for the things above as in this distance the chances of things being correct are slim to none 

 

Edited December 13, 2020 by Norrance

[SLEETY]

Hope we see more gfs enesmbles dip below the minus 10 hpa line,seen that happen before when a cold spell is around the corner,although of course nothing is a certainty  where gfs is concerned lol

[Zak M]

The 06z GFS control run is an absolute peach in time for Christmas... if this was to come off then it would most likely result in some snow for the majority of the country on Christmas Day and the risk of more snow a few days after and potentially into New Years Day... what a run!

         

Edited December 13, 2020 by Zak M

[bluearmy]

21 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Hope we see more gfs enesmbles dip below the minus 10 hpa line,seen that happen before when a cold spell is around the corner,although of course nothing is a certainty  where gfs is concerned lol

-10 c!  You’re not asking for much given where those temps currently reside !!

[Daniel*]

5 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM 00z ensembles is a return to the pattern of previous runs - by Dec 24th, about 70% put a weak ridge near Iberia leading to SWlies for the UK, and most of the other runs throw up a weak Atlantic ridge allowing a quick northerly.

No real change as far as I’m concerned.

[Scott Ingham]

5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

No real change as far as I’m concerned.

I think this weak ridge near Iberia will be more mid lat to higher scrussian blocking come nearer time in line with the tropical signals then retro to Greenland (which is why weak signals) i think models are too fast with this cold spell but I hope I'm wrong) again obviously it's not all doom though as the scrussian block will hopefully be the final nail in the strato coffin. The other option is the tropical wave zips past 6 into 7 and gives us these Greenland heights at this time frame but isn't as good for longer term cold due to a lack of strat wave breaking 

Edited December 13, 2020 by Scott Ingham

[blizzard81]

54 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

I think this weak ridge near Iberia will be more mid lat to higher scrussian blocking come nearer time in line with the tropical signals then retro to Greenland (which is why weak signals) i think models are too fast with this cold spell but I hope I'm wrong) again obviously it's not all doom though as the scrussian block will hopefully be the final nail in the strato coffin. The other option is the tropical wave zips past 6 into 7 and gives us these Greenland heights at this time frame but isn't as good for longer term cold due to a lack of strat wave breaking 

I personally hope the models aren't being too quick to bring in the cold. I want to see this count down from day 11. I get what you mean about any delays may bring something more meaningful cold wise. However, from bitter past experience, I have found that any delay just leads to the potential for further delays.......... Then its April before we know it lol. 

[Eagle Eye]

Let it rain let it rain let it rain.

No use looking past a 5 day outlook, you get random charts that aren't going to come to pass that Easternly ridge isn't going to move is it, I findit better looking at shorter charts like this.

2 Days time and we've already got a better chrt

Ifyou like even more rain,

[northwestsnow]

Icon out shortly... 

Coldies now have a bit of hope for the Christmas countdown...

Should have a good idea by day 7/8 if seasonal weather is likely around the 25th... hope we get a bit of luck,we are long overdue some !!

Edited December 13, 2020 by northwestsnow

[Frosty.]

I think this is why most of us are here isn’t it?...the possibility of a rare white Christmas period!  ...the drinks are on me if we do..well, virtual drinks anyway! 

Edited December 13, 2020 by Jon Snow

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

I personally hope the models aren't being too quick to bring in the cold. I want to see this count down from day 11. I get what you mean about any delays may bring something more meaningful cold wise. However, from bitter past experience, I have found that any delay just leads to the potential for further delays.......... Then its April before we know it lol. 

In my opinion there's not enough amplitude in the wave to create a massive Greenland High. I don't see it being a prolonged spell I see a small high that becomes west based a few days later so my head tells me stop in MJO 6 for a bit longer and give us a SSW 4 weeks later for a proper spell. I get what you mean though lol but I bet you wished it did if we had a week of cold and a few flakes (the snow amounts part is only my opinion based on not injecting enough cold south) but that's certainly open to something more severe

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

In my opinion there's not enough amplitude in the wave to create a massive Greenland High. I don't see it being a prolonged spell I see a small high that becomes west based a few days later so my head tells me stop in MJO 6 for a bit longer and give us a SSW 4 weeks later for a proper spell. I get what you mean though lol but I bet you wished it did if we had a week of cold and a few flakes (the snow amounts part is only my opinion based on not injecting enough cold south) but that's certainly open to something more severe

At this juncture that looks a sensible position to adopt.

A collapsing Mid Atlantic high looks the form horse, how this High collapses is key , 6z showed enough energy dropping into mainland Europe to keep the UK cold....

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

At this juncture that looks a sensible position to adopt.

A collapsing Mid Atlantic high looks the form horse, how this High collapses is key , 6z showed enough energy dropping into mainland Europe to keep the UK cold....

Yeah agreed. The only way I can see the models going straight to a greeny high is if they are expecting a practically cod scenario into phase 7 but the rmm plots show low to medium amplitude. Id rather it play out as forecast which is phase 6 inside the next 5-10 days and some disruption high up then onto phase 7 and 8 and greenie heights

[legritter]

Hoping for a good Ecm this evening Gang, and Gfs of course ,we have crumbs of Comfort   so lets hope we can Bake a good Christmas crusty Loaf, Deep and crisp and even , good posts today , we have a great forum ,let the Hunt commence, take care all ,catch you up later .