Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

[Paul_1978]

Just been for a run here in Wakefield and there’s barely a breeze. Quite amazing that it’s so calm and we’re not even in the “eye of the storm” so to speak right now. 

[Wold Topper]

Currently 4c here but wind picked up noticably in the last half hour, feels a lot colder,

[mhielte]

Colleagues in Sheffield reporting snow above 200m.

[The PIT]

Last window of opportunity tomorrow and a very small chance as well. Then mild cloudy gloom for  awhile.

[johnholmes]

Well a beautiful blue sky, hardly any breeze and mild with the current temperature showing 12.1 C

It may upset some folk but I'd not be too unhappy if this lasted until 'real' spring arrived!

[NorthYorksWeather]

ECM snow forecast for Xmas Day. Very unlikely to verify but it would be the best day of my life if it came off. 

[mike57]

Last two days have been very pleasent at the coast, light winds and sunny. Lunchtime bike rides felt more like early autumn than December

[The PIT]

1 hour ago, mike57 said:

Last two days have been very pleasent at the coast, light winds and sunny. Lunchtime bike rides felt more like early autumn than December

Yup forecast keeps saying cloudy but that yellow thing just keeps making guest appearances.  Just needs to be cold and crispy.

[The Future]

There are some four letter words that are banned from this site.  I wish “Boom” was added to the list (model thread).

 

That said, looks like there is a chance of a white Christmas for our region, I’d go 33% at present.

[Scott Ingham]

Hi guys,

For reasons id rather not go into ill be posting this year but just in the local thread.

Ive copied and posted my thoughts from a discussion with Kasim.

 

This is also the first time i believe were in the ball park for a significant and cold snowy spell.

Run some of the models 2010 post the easterly that buried parts of yorkshire. The low pressure progged for the 22nd. 

Back than this was progged as a battleground low to hit first yorkshire and the midlands and then a south of the m4 event. The reality was this crossed the north of france and brought about a stiff eastlery. 

I predict significant corrections south due to the models under estimating the block over greenland.

Look at the ensembles. The 18z ensembles are the first to strengthen the block.

The ensembles 7 and 10 for me wont be far off the mark and forget battle ground. Easterly alternating noth and south easterly from the 23rd onwards for me.

The mjo as a standing wave in 7 circa 20+ days is the holy grail at the back end of December!!!

This is only happening due to a very rare combination.

Firstly the enso state.

The seasonals when programmed forecast a basin wide La Nina. This is where they got this year BADLY wrong. Its increasingly obvious for me this is becoming an east based La Nina. Now what this allows is the convective wave to make it just far enough into the phase 7 segment of the pacific but the Nina is just about cold enough for me to stop this hitting phase 8. (Phase 8 promotes west based nao in very weak la nina years and isnt what we want) So were hitting phase 7 and its stalling.

Why is it stying in 7 so long?

Its stalling due to not being able to reach any further east due to the enso state but its losing no convection. This is where the -qbo comes in. This tanking state is boosting convection and almost back building convection similar to back building thunderstorms back home.

For me if we hit 30+ days of phase 7 we have repeated strengthening of griceland heights and a lock in of cold next week till at the very least 2nd week in january.

Then what for the rest?

Well phase 7 is excellent for disrupting the strat via the trop. I believe the hits taken by the strat driven from the topospheric waves over the pacific could mid january lead to a ssw.

Its a 2010 pattern with a better enso and -qbo background state which should ensure we have a very substantial severley cold period of weather not disimilar in timing to 1962/1963.

In fact the whole year has been extrmeley similar to 1963.

Merry christmas!

Edited December 17, 2021 by Scott Ingham

[LeeSnowFan]

4 hours ago, Scott Ingham said:

Hi guys,

For reasons id rather not go into ill be posting this year but just in the local thread.

Ive copied and posted my thoughts from a discussion with Kasim.

 

This is also the first time i believe were in the ball park for a significant and cold snowy spell.

Run some of the models 2010 post the easterly that buried parts of yorkshire. The low pressure progged for the 22nd. 

Back than this was progged as a battleground low to hit first yorkshire and the midlands and then a south of the m4 event. The reality was this crossed the north of france and brought about a stiff eastlery. 

I predict significant corrections south due to the models under estimating the block over greenland.

Look at the ensembles. The 18z ensembles are the first to strengthen the block.

The ensembles 7 and 10 for me wont be far off the mark and forget battle ground. Easterly alternating noth and south easterly from the 23rd onwards for me.

The mjo as a standing wave in 7 circa 20+ days is the holy grail at the back end of December!!!

This is only happening due to a very rare combination.

Firstly the enso state.

The seasonals when programmed forecast a basin wide La Nina. This is where they got this year BADLY wrong. Its increasingly obvious for me this is becoming an east based La Nina. Now what this allows is the convective wave to make it just far enough into the phase 7 segment of the pacific but the Nina is just about cold enough for me to stop this hitting phase 8. (Phase 8 promotes west based nao in very weak la nina years and isnt what we want) So were hitting phase 7 and its stalling.

Why is it stying in 7 so long?

Its stalling due to not being able to reach any further east due to the enso state but its losing no convection. This is where the -qbo comes in. This tanking state is boosting convection and almost back building convection similar to back building thunderstorms back home.

For me if we hit 30+ days of phase 7 we have repeated strengthening of griceland heights and a lock in of cold next week till at the very least 2nd week in january.

Then what for the rest?

Well phase 7 is excellent for disrupting the strat via the trop. I believe the hits taken by the strat driven from the topospheric waves over the pacific could mid january lead to a ssw.

Its a 2010 pattern with a better enso and -qbo background state which should ensure we have a very substantial severley cold period of weather not disimilar in timing to 1962/1963.

In fact the whole year has been extrmeley similar to 1963.

Merry christmas!

Great to see you back  thanks for such a great post! 

[Winter Cold]

Good to have you back Scott.

And enjoying your posts in the model thread Kasim 

It's looking pretty good for Yorkshire over the next few weeks I think

[Decemberof2010]

Hi Scott. Great to see you back posting albeit just in here. Hope everything’s ok and let’s just say it’s the mod’s thread loss. 

[Mikey Skins]

Great to see you back Scott and I prefer it in here as the IMBY posts from down sarf seem to be were alot of negativity towards some.models come from. 

I'm feeling really quite positive about the next cpl of weeks and believe that I will see some of the white sky candy at some point. Will it be Xmas day? I don't know and nobody does right now but I'm not fussed. 

 

We are in a wonderful place moving forwards and considering previous Xmas periods have come and gone weather wise this year just has something special about it. 

 

As Bon Jon said " Keep the faith " 

 

Stay happy guys and let's enjoy the next cpl of days. Hopefully come Monday we will be alot firmer in the outcomes.

 

[Winter Cold]

Getting foggy here already. Was crystal clear this morning and just a bit of frost. Could get really foggy tonight by looks of it

[joggs]

Foggy start here in Bingley (low down). Sun from 11am. Max 5c. Low cloud now.

Interesting later next week!

Edited December 17, 2021 by joggs

[The PIT]

Another nice day until this afternoon when the cloud and smog rolled in. Models still unable to decide what xmas is doing. We are due a spring run tomorrow morning. If we get a spring run hospitality will be ever more jaffa cakesed off as people stay away due to covid.

[winterof79]

[bryan629]

29 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Thanks for posting that on the mod thread.. and the cheeky one liner you made.. had a laugh 

Great to see you back as well @Scott Ingham and @Kasim Awan great posters. 

It is quite refreshing to wander in the regional thread just to get away from the whingers elsewhere, to me its like the happening place to be and i reckon that bowling ball low will disrupt . as per GEM and JMA. 

Looking forward to a very good winter oop north :

[The PIT]

Too be honest I don't want it too snow xmas day as want too see some of my family. After that if it's mild and stormy great if it's cold and snowy even better.

[bryan629]

Just been outside and its drizzling here, surfaces are soaked.. sod all showing on radar. 

If skies clear later on its going to be like an ice rink in the morning. 

Is it drizzling where your are, or is it just a local thing  ? 

Edited December 17, 2021 by bryan629

[Guest]

1 minute ago, bryan629 said:

Just been outside and its drizzling here, surfaces are soaked.. sod all showing on radar. 

If skies clear later on its going to be like an ice rink in the morning. 

Is it drizzling where your are, or is it just a local thing  ? 

It was earlier yes, the ground was quite damp. I agree it could be very icy in places later should skies clear (not sure they will though).

[bryan629]

1 minute ago, Steel City Skies said:

It was earlier yes, the ground was quite damp. I agree it could be very icy in places later should skies clear (not sure they will though).

Im not so sure myself , but you would assume being in a Fog warning for the majority of Yorkshire , skies would be clear. Our lass sets off for work usually at 2.30am.. Hope she doesnt break a leg.. who the hell will cook christmas dinner 

[Wold Topper]

On 17/12/2021 at 21:40, bryan629 said:

Im not so sure myself , but you would assume being in a Fog warning for the majority of Yorkshire , skies would be clear. Our lass sets off for work usually at 2.30am.. Hope she doesnt break a leg.. who the hell will cook christmas dinner 

Just buy a stool and place it in front of the cooker

[SouthYorks]

Fantastic to see you back posting @Scott Ingham.  This thread is the place to be in winter, with friendly informative posts.

@Kasim Awan Brilliant contributions from you in the Mod thread.  Keep them coming!