Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

[Lincstim]

So the upgrade in cold has downgraded our snow risk. 

So, if the cold air doesn't sink as far south as it has this would allow the precipitation to move further east and in to Yorkshire and Ze Humber ? 

So, still a possibility  

[SouthYorks]

From our regional perspective, it’s definitely a downgrade from the snow shown on yesterdays charts for Christmas Day and Boxing Day.  But if the block is stronger the cold will likely last longer and more opportunities for snow further down the line and notably could be from the East. 

There were several mentions yesterday in the Mod thread where folks commented that lows shown to track West to East under the slider setup often trend further South as we get nearer that date.  As we are still 5 days away from Christmas Day and another 17 GFS, 8 UKMO and 8 ECM runs, I suppose anything could be shown and none of them correct!

[SouthYorks]

@Kasim Awan  Given the trend South for the cold on todays 12z runs, our region is likely to miss out on the snow on the front coming in from the West.  However, it looks as though the current setup will deliver an Easterly fairly quickly,  so what are your thoughts snow wise for us off that Easterly?

[The PIT]

LOL back to cold and dry after a few rain showers in the early morning ECM not out yet. I think that was the forecast at the end of last week.

[The PIT]

ECM seems to be luke warm on the idea. So anyway tomorrows run the models will show 20C and record breaking temperatures followed by -20C in the evening.

I know whats happening it's Rory Bremner

 

[winterof79]

[SouthYorks]

Latest Fax charts for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day look very interesting.

 

Edited December 20, 2021 by SouthYorks

[Guest]

Met Office forecasting sounding more interesting, too...

"Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Thursday and Christmas Eve often cloudy, breezy with rain at times. Becoming milder. Turning colder and windy Christmas Day, with further wet weather, possibly wintry to lower levels."

[bryan629]

Just for fun at this range. 

GFS and GEFS between 2pm and 5pm Xmas day.. both show a nice little snowy feature heading in off the North Sea into our region. 

Use 3 hours steps on GFS , easier to see

[SouthYorks]

Overnight GFS and Mogreps all show potential interest for the Christmas period.  
Forecasting where any snow will end up is probably going to come down to nowcasting, but here are the Mogreps postage stamps for Boxing Day.  Those that show snow mostly pick out the Midlands as the sweet spot with it just bordering on our region.  No doubt there will be more changes.

[The PIT]

Interesting none of the forecasts are going with anything  bar northern Scotland. I expected a change of emphasis.

[Gray-Wolf]

Bloody Weather's as bad as the Govt. a.t.m.!!!

Just make yer bloody mind up!

We have folk travelling on Christmas day!.....or not....

What seems sure is we will see some snow at some point?

[winterof79]

Pass us shovel dear back doors stuck shut

[Scott Ingham]

27 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Pass us shovel dear back doors stuck shut

Very interesting period coming up as high res modelling comes into view.

Right now i wouldnt want to be living anywhere but Yorkshire as things stand but still probably another 48 hours for that to change just yet.

If i took a punt id be happy living between chesterfield and nottingham as this has the biggest margin for error for me.

Also watch for a developing wedge between iceland and scandinavia for the new year.

Im seeing tentative signs of this atm but thats all it is

[marksp]

9 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Very interesting period coming up as high res modelling comes into view.

Right now i wouldnt want to be living anywhere but Yorkshire as things stand but still probably another 48 hours for that to change just yet.

If i took a punt id be happy living between chesterfield and nottingham as this has the biggest margin for error for me.

Also watch for a developing wedge between iceland and scandinavia for the new year.

Im seeing tentative signs of this atm but thats all it is

well that will do me fine living 8 miles south of chez, haha.

this has always had a classic 80s feel, cold air in situ, really cold at surface, systems coming in from the Atlantic with lots of PPN hopefully, and readily turning to snow, especially here.

its just do the systems bump into the cold air, then slide away south east, grind to a halt, then drop south, ride over it, or under haha, what am I saying haha. it will be fun to radar watch.

but I will be watching to see if the projected system has enough energy to get up to the North Midlands, as we know alot of posters think it might fall away south, but I hope not.

as a side note I have family coming down from Leeds Christmas Eve 8pm and some coming up from London, both hoping to travel back to Leeds on Boxing day afternoon, so that could be interesting.

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

1 hour ago, winterof79 said:

Pass us shovel dear back doors stuck shut

Looks promising for Yorkshire that.  It would be nice to see snow falling on Christmas day if nothing else even if it doesn't accumulate

[joggs]

I think that GFS is too progressive re snowfall. I'm going the front not reaching most of our region and then not much precipitation around when the colder air moves in.

Not much wiggle room for the sweet spot if CAA does move in quicker.

Edited December 21, 2021 by joggs

[winterof79]

Strap back

This period remains somewhat uncertain in detail, but generally sees a split between colder air to the north and milder air to the south. Snow showers are looking to continue across far northern areas, with perhaps some mainly light rain or snow for southern locations. To the south, mild, unsettled weather, with rain and occasional strong winds. To the north more settled conditions with brighter spells and perhaps some frost or ice. Feeling very cold in brisk northeasterly winds for many. Along the boundary, potential for significant weather with snow likely at times in addition to possibly strong winds. Becoming colder than average heading into January with any unsettled, milder spells most likely for the west and south.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Tue 21 Dec 2021

[winterof79]

Strap in....

Tuesday 4 Jan - Tuesday 18 Jan

Likely to remain colder than average heading into this period, alongside a largely settled pattern initially. Any unsettled, milder spells are most likely to be confined to west and southwestern regions, where longer spells of rain, and perhaps areas of snow, are possible with occasional strong winds. There is an increased likelihood of winds from a southeasterly direction, bringing colder than average temperatures more widely and risk of some wintry showers into eastern areas, with associated wintry hazards. Overall, the likely colder than normal start, becomes replaced by milder conditions from mid to late January.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Mon 20 Dec 2021

[Kasim Awan]

I still have 2ft drifts guys -

[swfc]

5 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Strap in....

Tuesday 4 Jan - Tuesday 18 Jan

Likely to remain colder than average heading into this period, alongside a largely settled pattern initially. Any unsettled, milder spells are most likely to be confined to west and southwestern regions, where longer spells of rain, and perhaps areas of snow, are possible with occasional strong winds. There is an increased likelihood of winds from a southeasterly direction, bringing colder than average temperatures more widely and risk of some wintry showers into eastern areas, with associated wintry hazards. Overall, the likely colder than normal start, becomes replaced by milder conditions from mid to late January.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Mon 20 Dec 2021

That's yesterday's

[winterof79]

52 minutes ago, swfc said:

That's yesterday's

No change

[The PIT]

Boxing days looks rather good if the GFS is correct that is. May sneak some back edge snow on xmas day but that will be a bonus.

[Mikey Skins]

Looks like the snow chances for Xmas day night into Boxing day are sliding south as usual. It's painful reading those darn sarf getting excited saying they never get snow. 

Anything north of the M4 is north and apparently gets buried every year under 5cm of snow. They want to try living on the North Notts snow shield. Have had no settled snow for nearly 2 years. 

I am praying to the snow gods for some on Xmas Day night. 

 

Merry Christmas everyone and fingers crossed we are the sweet spot. 

[Scott Ingham]

6 hours ago, Scott Ingham said:

"Also watch for a developing wedge between iceland and scandinavia for the new year.

Im seeing tentative signs of this atm but thats all it is"

Did we all see the iclandic/scandi ridge?

204 hours onwards?

On the 29th near new year?

Im glad im seeing a theory being modelled now.

It fits the latest guidance on mjo7 now forecast to stay with this phase even longer than invisaged 

Snow on boxing day is a given for this region now for me.

Its just how disruptive it is....

But im looking at our second course now which could be far more impactful