South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

[Dorsetbred]

Morning All, after an overnight low of -1.8°C at: 04:07, a calm, serene morning with hardly any air movement around, mist patches and cloud cover, a kinda of a hmmm day weather wise...currently 0.9°C RH96% 

[Dorsetbred]

Mist is lingering today, as the beachcam shot shows, the sun is trying to break through..

[CheesepuffScott]

Afternoon, a low of -2.3°C at: 05:37...

Foggy currently but trying to brighten up. 1.2°C

[matt111]

Stayed just below freezing for quite a while last night but eventually it dropped to -2.1°C. The overnight fog has only just cleared now and its started brightening up although still cloudy at the moment. 1.6°C

[Glenosnow]

Afternoon all,spanking new weather station set up....all good to go .

Cloudy 2.7C

Wind wsw 0.7m/s

Dew point 0.9C

Humidity 89%

Doesn't half feel nippy....not looked in the mad thread today....hopefully not too much wrist slitting going on....and plenty of ramping ❄.

 

[jtay]

Another poor METO forecast. We had one patch of blue sky and a hint of watery Sunshine that vanished as quickly as it appeared.

More Wisteria trimming today in 4 layers, while listening to the footie. Got a pint now, but probably won't stick it out much longer. At least this weather keeps your beer cold, which saves trips out to the fridge.

[Dorsetbred]

Some warm sunshine this afternoon, enough to tease me out in to the garden and do more tidying up of the winter dead foliage, after peaking @ 4.4°C at: 15:03, it's marginally lower than that now, but real pleasant in the afternoon sunshine...

[Dorsetbred]

1 hour ago, Glenosnow said:

Afternoon all,spanking new weather station set up....all good to go .

Sharing data or self contained?

[Glenosnow]

6 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

Sharing data or self contained?

Self contained until I get properly to grips with it.

[Mapantz]

[Dorsetbred]

18 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

mm of rain?

[Dorsetbred]

Temperature holding up well, currently 3.8°C not that far removed from todays high of 4.4°C....

[Mapantz]

4 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

mm of rain?

That's snow courtesy of a channel low. However, the GFS op run was an outlier in terms of MSLP, so that suggest to me that the channel low won't be anywhere near us.

[Dorsetbred]

Just now, Mapantz said:

That's snow courtesy of a channel low. However, the GFS op run was an outlier in terms of MSLP, so that suggest to me that the channel low won't be anywhere near us.

Getting a "perfect" channel low seems a real hard thing to come buy, to much north and we get the rain, too far south and we see northing, perfect placing PLUS the infusion of the colder air from the east is very much a precise art, one few and far between..

[matt111]

Warmer now than it was during the day, and than it's been for the last few days. 3.3°C

[Andy Bown]

Warmest temperature of the year right now, 3.5c!! 

[CheesepuffScott]

2.9°C was the high yesterday, just before midnight!

Temperature continues to rise now, 3.1°C... which is the highest temperature in 5 days.

[John88B]

Good morning all. I asked a question on the model output thread that got lost in the frenzy of posting going on there, so was wondering if anyone on here could help me out.

I was wondering what the OP and control runs were and whether they were somehow more powerful or reliable than the rest of the ensembles?

A very novice question I know but thanks in advance to anyone who can help me out.

[lettice]

Temp on the rise slowly all day yesterday to a high at 23:30pm of 4.4c
Temp has continued is rise through the night.

Now 7.4c, 1020.8 hPa. cloudy.
Wind now from the WSW 8mph. 

[Dorsetbred]

Morning All, an overcast start to the day, considerably milder than of late, with the overnight low of 4.7°C at: 03:03, currently 6.6°C with RH91% with patchy light rain in the area..

[dec10snow]

44 minutes ago, John88B said:

Good morning all. I asked a question on the model output thread that got lost in the frenzy of posting going on there, so was wondering if anyone on here could help me out.

I was wondering what the OP and control runs were and whether they were somehow more powerful or reliable than the rest of the ensembles?

A very novice question I know but thanks in advance to anyone who can help me out.

Very novice myself too - always (well some of the time) like to read the mod thread but have never got into trying to learn them properly.

However as far as I know, each ensemble member is fed slightly different (and therefore incorrect) starting data, which is why they then come out with widly varying solutions a lot of the time. Small changes can make a big difference!

Difference between the Operationals and Control runs though, must say I don’t actually know, I’m sure someone else will be able to tell us though.

[MP-R]

Sun is out for the first time in 4 days and it’s feeling mild at 7C!

[Dorsetbred]

2 hours ago, dec10snow said:

Very novice myself too - always (well some of the time) like to read the mod thread but have never got into trying to learn them properly.

However as far as I know, each ensemble member is fed slightly different (and therefore incorrect) starting data, which is why they then come out with widly varying solutions a lot of the time. Small changes can make a big difference!

Difference between the Operationals and Control runs though, must say I don’t actually know, I’m sure someone else will be able to tell us though.

So some information can be found here:

https://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/pages/ensembles1.pdf

 

And also here:

Weather: Ensemble forecast

WWW.WEATHERCAST.CO.UK

---

Ensemble forecasts identify the expected spread of weather conditions and assess the probability of particular events

 

[Dorsetbred]

Yup saw the sun for 15-20mins, it is still there, which is good to know!

Edited January 11, 2021 by Dorsetbred

[ARTDEMOLE]

Only a flicker of sun seen here. Cloudy with light drizzle. 7.4 c. Humidity 03% Rh.