Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

[mountain shadow]

GFS Op really trying to get there

 

[Anthony Burden]

Well this cold spell which started on Boxing Day in my part of the world looks likely to end 

some time next week after snow in some parts and frost.Charts have struggled after 144 hrs/168 hrs

so nothing definite with ECM yesterday showing northern blocking only to ditch it today.

We all still waiting with anticipation regarding SSW will it or won’t it,the proof will be in the charts.

[sebastiaan1973]

4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

GFS Op really trying to get there

 

You can argue that we 'just' have to wait for a good ridge in the Atlantic to get the cold air. The tropospheric vortex is split in three parts. Impressive (to me at least) are the geo's (green area) at the North Pole.

[mountain shadow]

Here it comes. My marker date is the 21st and i hope this is a sign of things to come...

[Purga]

Will we get seduced ? ....

[Battleground Snow]

Para with the impressive Arctic high just starting to drift towards our side of the hemisphere... This could help it join up with the Atlantic sector further down the line..

Looking forward to the MJO update later today. I remember it just taking off in terms of amplification through phase 6 and 7 in Feb 2018. 

Edit: close again at 264

 

Edited January 6, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Anti-Mild]

I have a question for the members of the forum that understand about these things better than I ever could.

The effects of the SSW are yet to be seen, but the models seem keen to throw a wedge of PV into North America (potentially bad news for us). My question is this; is it possible that a wedge of PV could find it's way towards Scandinavia, and if so what would be the result, not just for us, but also the rest of NW Europe?

[northwestsnow]

Cold gets in...

 

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, Anti-Mild said:

I have a question for the members of the forum that understand about these things better than I ever could.

The effects of the SSW are yet to be seen, but the models seem keen to throw a wedge of PV into North America (potentially bad news for us). My question is this; is it possible that a wedge of PV could find it's way towards Scandinavia, and if so what would be the result, not just for us, but also the rest of NW Europe?

The gfs ops run i have posted above shows just that. Portions of vortex in North America AND Scandanavia with Greenland heights in between.

[sebastiaan1973]

4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Para with the impressive Arctic high just starting to drift towards our side of the hemisphere... This could help it join up with the Atlantic sector further down the line..

Looking forward to the MJO update later today. I remember it just taking off in terms of amplification through phase 6 and 7 in Feb 2018. 

Edit: close again at 264

 

In 2018 we saw a (near) record MJO phase 6,7. We won't get this kind of MJO this time. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

Edited January 6, 2021 by sebastiaan1973

[sebastiaan1973]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The gfs ops run i have posted above shows just that. Portions of vortex in North America AND Scandanavia with Greenland heights in between.

In my humble eyes we see that the low pressure systems can't get pass the Atl. Ocean due to things going on in the atmosphere.

[That ECM]

The two air masses are going to meet in the channel, perfect well done gfs. It’s also a south of the M4 event..

Edited January 6, 2021 by That ECM

[Griff]

Homeschooling and a very poorly geriatric cat, at bit like the models, could be going a bit better in South Oxfordshire today... 

My bias towards GFSP is going to prove sweet or very silly, yes FI. 

Wishing everyone a good day and happy model hunting

[Anti-Mild]

2 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Why is it ALWAYS two weeks away?

Because at some point we angered the weather gods, and we now find ourselves in cold purgatory. 

[Ravelin]

There'd be no complaints from me if this happened....

 

[TSNWK]

Para again brings the interest a little earlier at around 250.. 

I'm torn on the para.. one part of me thinks it should be better, updated code, better resolution etc.. however the flip is that it is parallel testing in essence... Do we have any verication stats or just views on how it is performing?

[Griff]

11 hours ago, Griff said:

Interesting but possibly not that significant to us? 

 

 

4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Para again brings the interest a little earlier at around 250.. 

I'm torn on the para.. one part of me thinks it should be better, updated code, better resolution etc.. however the flip is that it is parallel testing in essence... Do we have any verication stats or just views on how it is performing?

 

See my previous comment, good question though... 

[Methuselah]

Just the sort of charts that might persuade one to become one of The Tennamen... Shame they're so far out in La La Land, they ought to be put on the backburner?

    

 

[Battleground Snow]

Operational and para both showing the met office long term forecast of deep cold over Scandinavia with us just on the boundary, which is high risk, high reward in terms of frontal snowfall. It could be a rollercoaster over the next week or so in terms of model output, with loads of booms and lots of toys out of prams.

Edited January 6, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[KTtom]

13 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Why is it ALWAYS two weeks away?

Its not!! ..?........its usually 10 days but were going through a particularly tough time at the moment

[northwestsnow]

Ends with cold air over the UK.

Meanwhile its frozen here today with -5 forecast overnight...

 

 

Edited January 6, 2021 by northwestsnow

[LRD]

Summary of the 6z GFS

Mid term - awful

Longer term - promising although still plagued with patchy European cold

We've had good synoptics that have failed to produce a flake where I live. Now they're declining we will have to endure a potentially very mild spell and wait, yet again, for things to improve. Looks like another poor January IMBY (and many other well-populated areas) for those who dare like seasonal weather but let's hope the month has a proper sting in its tail in the last 7/10 days and that continues well into February

[Valleyboy]

18 minutes ago, That ECM said:

The two air masses are going to meet in the channel, perfect well done gfs. It’s also a south of the M4 event..

Unfortunately we would be back to marginality, which is not what most people on here want.  The air sourced from the north is always moderated to a point where people get frustrated, especially the southern contingent.  A step in the right direction though.

[LRD]

22 minutes ago, Griff said:

Homeschooling and a very poorly geriatric cat, at bit like the models, could be going a bit better in South Oxfordshire today... 

My bias towards GFSP is going to prove sweet or very silly, yes FI. 

Wishing everyone a good day and happy model hunting

That's a stunner. The para seems like a dog with a bone on this. It won't let go of the idea of significant high pressure developments to our north and NW. Been like this for a few runs now. A real feather in its cap (that will be covered in snow and ice) if it proves right

Edited January 6, 2021 by LRD

[Chesil View]

10 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Operational and para both showing the met office long term forecast of deep cold over Scandinavia with us just on the boundary, which is high risk, high reward in terms of frontal snowfall. It could be a rollercoaster over the next week or so it terms of model output, with loads of booms and lots of toys out of prams.

Indeed so Battleground snow. It s the Meto extended made live. 

The risks are great but the rewards can be amazing.