Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

[johnholmes]

52 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

What do you class as Deep cold?

Well blocked Atlantic with either a major upper and surface high over Greenland/Iceland or central/northern Scandinavia. 850 mb temperatures in either of those synoptics well below what is needed for ppn to be snow at low levels in the south let alone further north, in either frontal or shower activity.

[DavidS]

20 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Just the sort of charts that might persuade one to become one of The Tennamen... Shame they're so far out in La La Land, they ought to be put on the backburner?

    

 

Cracking battleground scenario. Can we get lucky?

[wellington boot]

42 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

In 2018 we saw a (near) record MJO phase 6,7. We won't get this kind of MJO this time. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

Well if you look at that carefully, it's down in phases 1 and 2 by the time the BFTE actually hits. 

[Battleground Snow]

9 minutes ago, wellington boot said:

Well if you look at that carefully, it's down in phases 1 and 2 by the time the BFTE actually hits. 

I believe there is a time lag of up to 10 days with the MJO and it's effects on the surface

Edited January 6, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

A fair few ens dropping that deep cold into Europe...Im not going to get ahead of myself here,but currently I think this could be favourable for us come around the final 2 weeks of January.Either way you look at it,the Vortex looks knackered...hardly surprising as its been pulled from pillar to post for some time..

[Daniel*]

You can literally see impact of SSW on day 5 modelling so no that’s not two weeks away, what’s happening the vortex is being ejected to Eurasia but this time a part of it is going to NE Europe, there’s a reason MetO are talking about very cold air in Scandinavia. Displacement allows an Arctic high to form further displacing bitterly cold air south, this movement gives potential for Atlantic/Greenland blocking. If the stars align with blocking we could see this bitterly cold air come our way it’s not remotely difficult to envisage.

 

Pete’s chart has a very post SSW look very cold air draining into mid latitudes. 

 

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

A fair few ens dropping that deep cold into Europe...Im not going to get ahead of myself here,but currently I think this could be favourable for us come around the final 2 weeks of January.Either way you look at it,the Vortex looks knackered...hardly surprising as its been pulled from pillar to post for some time..

Indeed Matt, maybe the first tentative signs appearing now?

 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

My take on the next two weeks!

 

so deep cold seems highly unlikely to me anytime in the next 2 weeks possibly longer.

 

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

I can see a scenario by where a very short period of very cold air is over the Eastern half of the UK, the small wedges of high pressure ridging North are a recurrent theme on the models, whether its just a few snow grains down the East then the wedge / ridge topples so then a dry day followed by winds from a Westerly quadrant or whether one of these shortwaves or lows in the Atlantic can disrupt enough and elongate NW to SE (advertised on some runs as well) and engage the cold air giving a battleground or not is another matter, certainly towards the back end of week 2 its possible, even then though it would likely any significant snow wouldn't necessarily last long as the Westerlies get back in soon after.

Low probability (20%) as you are reliant on the track of small microscale features at long range to be exactly where you want them.

Edited January 6, 2021 by feb1991blizzard

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Indeed Matt, maybe the first tentative signs appearing now?

 

Yes mate...I state around 2 weeks..meaning that's possibly around the time we will feel the impacts. But the set up appears to be going in the correct direction. I said last week,we may start to see the models toying with these ideas come the latter Part of this week..Still along way to go,but wouldn't be surprised to see some crazy output come the Weekend.

[Froze were the Days]

1 hour ago, Purga said:

Will we get seduced ? ....

errrmm no!...recently you would have thought the Bella Hadid of chart seduction but here in the south all we received was Bella Emberg (people of a certain age would know). 

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, Valleyboy said:

Unfortunately we would be back to marginality, which is not what most people on here want.  The air sourced from the north is always moderated to a point where people get frustrated, especially the southern contingent.  A step in the right direction though.

Moderated, yes... But from a starting point of -25C T850s up to c. -10C? A bloody darned site better than being modified from +22C down to the dizzyingly wet, near-saturated air, with Uppers of -7C, we've endured, these past few days?

Edited January 6, 2021 by General Cluster

[That ECM]

1 hour ago, Valleyboy said:

Unfortunately we would be back to marginality, which is not what most people on here want.  The air sourced from the north is always moderated to a point where people get frustrated, especially the southern contingent.  A step in the right direction though.

Its 300 plus hours away if it gets to t72 then will worry about the details.

[LRD]

Op very much on the cold side in FI

Shame but, hey, we have to start somewhere right? And it's not an outlier. 3 or 4 ensemble members follow it. 

[Weather-history]

Struck me that GFS 06z op keeps it chilly in the SE almost to next Wednesday 

[mountain shadow]

8 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

Eastern Siberia this morning. 

Ahh, good old Yakutsk.

I won a famous battle there once with a double six.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Struck me that GFS 06z op keeps it chilly in the SE almost to next Wednesday 

Aye, posted that in regionals, any snow that falls, should remain until Tuesday evening, milder here Tues night

[Johnp]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Feb looks amazing..

Thanks for these Sebastian.

From SSW ?

I'm always dubious of these kind of charts - for example we have this for a few days time, but the reality won't be as wintry as you'd perhaps expect. 

[LRD]

4 minutes ago, Johnp said:

I'm always dubious of these kind of charts - for example we have this for a few days time, but the reality won't be as wintry as you'd perhaps expect. 

Yep, pressure anomaly charts are so easy to mis-read and build false hopes on. Temp anomaly charts are helpful but pressure anomalies? Pffft

[goosey007]

15 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Ahh, good old Yakutsk.

I won a famous battle there once with a double six.

Sounds Riskier than the battleground scenario the GFS 06z is throwing up in la la land 

[Premiere Neige]

47 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

errrmm no!...recently you would have thought the Bella Hadid of chart seduction but here in the south all we received was Bella Emberg (people of a certain age would know). 

She probably had a very nice personality....

[Penicuikblizzard]

1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

Just the sort of charts that might persuade one to become one of The Tennamen... Shame they're so far out in La La Land, they ought to be put on the backburner?

    

 

The good charts for the BFTE in 2018 started 2 weeks out then were quite consistent 10 days out until the event so maybe the evolution into cold has begun 

[Chesil View]

37 minutes ago, LRD said:

Op very much on the cold side in FI

Shame but, hey, we have to start somewhere right? And it's not an outlier. 3 or 4 ensemble members follow it. 

You mean trend setters.

[LRD]

2 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

You mean trend setters.

Ha ha! Let's hope so BB, let's hope

I do think we will start seeing some outrageously cold, wintry operational runs soon but it doesn't mean they'll verify of course. Must admit to getting a sinking feeling about things at the moment!

[TSNWK]

50 minutes ago, LRD said:

Op very much on the cold side in FI

Shame but, hey, we have to start somewhere right? And it's not an outlier. 3 or 4 ensemble members follow it. 

We do. The low point for me personally so far was yesterday 06z ensembles which were a tight bunch heading upwards throughout and only at the end did we see a few breaks from the pack and that only gave us -9 as best case.

More scattering this morning and a few sub 10s. 

[Purga]

27 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

She probably had a very nice personality....

Whereas Bella Hadid has a couple of nice personalities...