Autumn 2021 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[MattStoke]

Nice Autumn weather, at last. It was likely the coldest night here since early spring.

[markyo]

7 hours ago, Nick L said:

What a lovely morning. I love scraping the car on mornings like this.

By far the best exercise for waking you up on crisp day! Love it.

[Mandy Orme]

May I ask the experts.... 

Is my end south coast going to see colder temps this weekend. 

The met office says 5°c on Saturday which is so much nicer than the horrible mild double figures of late. 

Is this right

Thank you guys 

[Ali1977]

14 minutes ago, Mandy Orme said:

May I ask the experts.... 

Is my end south coast going to see colder temps this weekend. 

The met office says 5°c on Saturday which is so much nicer than the horrible mild double figures of late. 

Is this right

Thank you guys 

I’m no expert but i think you’ll be lucky to scrape 5c on Saturday 

[Mandy Orme]

53 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I’m no expert but i think you’ll be lucky to scrape 5c on Saturday 

Oooo I don't mind colder, just don't want it any warmer.

[stainesbloke]

Dreary, grey, boring ‘weather’ continues here, feels like an eternity of cloud. Has felt very chilly too. So I’m putting up the Christmas decorations early to cheer myself up

[damianslaw]

Apart from a couple of exceptionally wet days in late October.. I've never known such a quiet Autumn. One with barely anything to talk about.. roll on winter..

[legritter]

Hi gang ,would be nice to see some action weather .I am a true coldie ,still about a week or so till start of Meteorological winter so im sure that many of us will see at least a dozen flakes or so , (blizzards, lake effect snow ,510 damm line or lower ,walking from Southampton to Isle of white on thick sea ice , polar bears reported on the isle of man ) .no guarantee of course ,but if it all comes off i will provide free SAUSAGE BAPS ,leave your skis in the front porch ,please put a mask on untill seated, i said free sausage baps , i even provide all sorts of sauces and even fried onions if needed ,weĺl gang its goodnight from me and goodnight from my sausage dog named STella ,cheers to you all .

[Summer of 95]

Raining with a pressure of 1034hPa. That's impressive even for Britain... the sunny high was nice for the 2 days it lasted, just managed a frost in the evening before it filled with muck.

[jmp223420]

UKMO just issued two yellow warnings for wind, the first covering whole of Scotland down to Cumbria and parts of NI.  First is for Friday midday to midnight.  The second warning extends the location to cover essentially the whole of the UK bar a small portion of Kent/E.Anglia.  Going to be a wild weekend.  I bet they got into their offices and looked at the updated models and thought Oh Crap!  Some coffee may have been spilled also 

extending further south through the evening across the rest of Scotland, Northern Ireland and some exposed coasts of northern England. The location and strength of the very strongest winds remains uncertain. However, gusts seem likely to reach 50 to 60 mph widely, with 70 to 80 mph possible in coastal locations, particularly in parts of Scotland.

Edited November 23, 2021 by jmp223420
Updated info

[MattStoke]

As boring and uneventful as this autumn has been, the lack of strong winds and largely dry conditions have been great for hiking, running and more generally getting about. Now liking the colder, more seasonal feel.

Edited November 23, 2021 by MattStoke

[Freeze]

Been lovely and sunny here, cold mornings down to 1c this morning,but not as cold during the day as I expected, reached 11c yesterday And already up to 9c here now.

[Hoghtonwhite]

Am I right in thinking, that BBC and Met Office apps could change quite significantly between now and the weekend?

[NEVES SCREAMER]

Saturday looks utterly foul. Gales. Rain. Grey. 4c. Think i'll just stay in with the blinds shut.

[Blessed Weather]

1 hour ago, Hoghtonwhite said:

Am I right in thinking, that BBC and Met Office apps could change quite significantly between now and the weekend?

A warm welcome to Netweather Hoghtonwhite.  
I've moved your post over to this thread as it's more appropriate than the Model Output Discussion thread. Although I'll use some model output charts to answer your question. With another 3 days to the weekend the detailed forecasts such as where it will snow or just rain, and which areas will get what, will very likely change. To demonstrate that I'll use a few charts from the GFS to demonstrate how much the detailed forecast from that model has changed in just 12 hours. First of all the forecast for 07.00 on Saturday morning from last evening's 18Z run, followed by the updated forecast for the same time on the 06z run this morning:

18z Pressure  Precipitation

06z Pressure  Precipitation

Quite some change in the Low Pressure, its track, and where precipitation fall. Hatched shading is snow, unhatched rain. Hope that helps. You can find the charts at: https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/precipitations/3h.htm

[Hoghtonwhite]

28 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

A warm welcome to Netweather Hoghtonwhite.  
I've moved your post over to this thread as it's more appropriate than the Model Output Discussion thread. Although I'll use some model output charts to answer your question. With another 3 days to the weekend the detailed forecasts such as where it will snow or just rain, and which areas will get what, will very likely change. To demonstrate that I'll use a few charts from the GFS to demonstrate how much the detailed forecast from that model has changed in just 12 hours. First of all the forecast for 07.00 on Saturday morning from last evening's 18Z run, followed by the updated forecast for the same time on the 06z run this morning:

18z Pressure  Precipitation

06z Pressure  Precipitation

Quite some change in the Low Pressure, its track, and where precipitation fall. Hatched shading is snow, unhatched rain. Hope that helps. You can find the charts at: https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/precipitations/3h.htm

Brilliant. Very useful. Cheers for this.

[knocker]

I understand that special terms are on offer to NW members for a three month stay

 

[Puddy Galore]

43 minutes ago, knocker said:

I understand that special terms are on offer to NW members for a three month stay

 

Would still be magical experience to see all that snow and ice…

[Yarmy]

It seems the GFS 12z op run is both more and less amplified than the GFS 6z op run. Amazing scenes.

[shawty1984]

Is it just me or are people getting overly excited in the mod thread, posting pics of how many cm's the country will have? Some of the pics are basically showing snow over the hills and basically nothing for low land or just a cm, which will amount to nothing. 

[Stabilo19]

Saturday is looking interesting with strong winds, low single digit temps, freezing wind chill and a chance of falling snow even in the SE. Not bad for November. 

[swfc]

On 23/11/2021 at 16:50, shawty1984 said:

Is it just me or are people getting overly excited in the mod thread, posting pics of how many cm's the country will have? Some of the pics are basically showing snow over the hills and basically nothing for low land or just a cm, which will amount to nothing. 

You are correct.

[Bradley in Kent]

On 23/11/2021 at 16:50, shawty1984 said:

Is it just me or are people getting overly excited in the mod thread, posting pics of how many cm's the country will have? Some of the pics are basically showing snow over the hills and basically nothing for low land or just a cm, which will amount to nothing. 

I'll say balanced at the moment: not as overly excited as last week when models were showing height builds to our north which in my view will always be premature more than a week away. Many, including myself, are confident we'll have an interesting weekend, but most, if not all, know details can only be nailed down hours beforehand. I'd love to see settling snow end of November, which, if the 850s, DPs, precipitation intensity and mixing go the right way, is a real possibility! It's that possibility and uncertainty which is why most on NW even log on in the first place!

Besides, nothing wrong with a little, rationally restraint excitement  So long as one doesn't get attached to something in the future (like I did in Jan 2016 before a rogue hurricane ruined it all), looking at charts is always interesting!

[TSNWK]

On 23/11/2021 at 16:50, shawty1984 said:

Is it just me or are people getting overly excited in the mod thread, posting pics of how many cm's the country will have? Some of the pics are basically showing snow over the hills and basically nothing for low land or just a cm, which will amount to nothing. 

Correct.. fun isn’t it

[fergieweather]

1 hour ago, shawty1984 said:

Is it just me or are people getting overly excited in the mod thread, posting pics of how many cm's the country will have? Some of the pics are basically showing snow over the hills and basically nothing for low land or just a cm, which will amount to nothing. 

Detail tbc re scope of lowland snow potential in parts of south at least, but in broadest terms the cautionary point (& this is an annual one made by many of us on eg Twitter) is how eg ECMWF accumulates *all* solid ppn, ie sleet too; plus accumulation fields won't adequately represent depth temps (thus actual tendency of snow to genuinely accumulate on ground or not). What's seen falling from sky, as opposed to actually lying on ground (other than fleetingly), won't necessarily be adequately represented yet in model fields for lower elevations at least.