SE, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 5th Sept 21 onwards

[Blazerblue]

Had a rogue shower pass through around 8am, but now sunny skies and temp 10c. Dont know what the temp went down to last night, but a few paths were a touch icy and slippery this morning in places after the showers yesterday, but no frost.

[Atmogenic]

Lovely morning again, too bad it's winter though 

[snowrye]

Nice little streamer, shame it's rain lol

[lottiekent]

Temp up and down with every shower - was 11c a short while ago but another heavy shower dropped it back to 8.6c. On 11.2mm since midnight - if only it was colder!

[Weatherman_93]

Bright, sunny, breezy. Pleasant in the garden washing the patio down. Cant say im looking forward to the temperatures dropping later in the week after all these double figured days we've had in November, although will probably turn mild again as we head into December.

[Eagle Eye]

Good thing about having bad handwriting is that you have a laptop throughout the day and at lunchtimes you can do what you want, currently this flow is what the flow will be in about a weeks time so definitely a chance for some flakes to flurry perhaps more, looking after that @TomSE12 I know you love a Thames streamer and this year it looks like we'll get the general flow of it for probably the next month or so with breaks in between with a blocked high (more blocked weather due to a weaker jet stream which is due to the EQBO). So I think we could see one this year if we are lucky and the flow and ground temps coincide, this year the uppers won't matter as much with this flow, from what I've seen a hotter north sea and cooler ground temps is conductive for a streamer, the more significant the difference, the bigger the streamer and the anomalies around the north sea this year have been forecast above average so hopefully that'll continue with the sea temps. That's all from me for now.

[Soaring Hawk]

A bright sunny day with a top temp of 10.1 at 13:30 but as that coincided with a NE gust of 10mph it felt chilly in unsheltered areas.  This after an overnight low of 1.8c and an early light frost.  Current temperature is 2c with 92% humidity.   Apart from the brief moment of wind in double figures, its been falling light from around 2:30 pm onwards and with no recoded readings since 6pm.  Pressure currently 1033.5hPa rising slowly.  A total of 0.2mm has fallen in the last 24 hours, at 07:00 apparently, although I must have blinked and missed it. 

The moon is bright and casting lots of shadows again tonight , shining through high thin broken cloud. 

 

[iceman1991]

36 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yes quite a big upgrade for a cold weekend, control and mean below ️ some -9/-10 uppers sat night 

Any luck Ali for bit of snow for north Hampshire this sat ? 

[Blazerblue]

Getting chillier each day now, but thankfully blue skies and sun this morning, but only 4c currently, no frost this morning again but at least the paths had dried out enough with yesterdays sunshine so not slippery this morning  

[Sparky68]

See the Met Office and BBC at loggerheads as to wether or not we are in for a cold snap. Odds of a White Christmas down to 2/1 apparently.

[throwoff]

Looks like we are almost certainly going to see something this weekend in our region.

Who will be the lucky postcodes?

[Emz by the Thames]

Weather warning for wind on Saturday reaches as far  south as Bucks, Luton, Reading etc.

[Atmogenic]

another sunny morning, if winter was mostly this I wouldn't mind it so much as long as the dull and damp yuck stays away

[MAF]

3 hours ago, throwoff said:

Looks like we are almost certainly going to see something this weekend in our region.

Who will be the lucky postcodes?

me, because i live in SN0 1NG   

[Blessed Weather]

I used some of these charts in another post elsewhere but thought it might be useful to show them here too as they show the current uncertainty about Saturday - still 3 days away - and how quickly the detailed forecast can change. First of all the forecast for 07.00 on Saturday morning from last evening's GFS 18Z run, followed by the updated forecast for the same time from the 06z run this morning.

You can see there's quite some difference in the Low Pressure profile, its track, where the coldest uppers will be (at 850hPa) and where snow/rain will fall. Whilst it's all extremely marginal for our Region this 12 hour change is going in the right direction and who can be certain we won't see a possible snowy surprise.

Charts show pressure, 850s and precipitation:

18z 22nd:

0z 23rd:  

[Eagle Eye]

Another very sunny morning before the cloud rolled in, got some photos, will post when I'm out of school

[Floatylight]

44 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Matches the latest BBC graphics really, Friday will be blustery with wintery showers pretty much anywhere, then the front coming down the eastern half!! Complicated situation with a strong storm attached!! 

We have an outdoor Christmas fete with lots of gazebos on Sunday...

[snowrye]

Oooh, it's getting all exciting again

[Eagle Eye]

On 23/11/2021 at 09:48, throwoff said:

Looks like we are almost certainly going to see something this weekend in our region.

Who will be the lucky postcodes?

TN Nowhere knowing our luck

[Met4Cast]

Evening all. 

Not overly hopeful for our region this weekend, despite the low res models looking rather snowy they just don't have the resolution to handle these situations. 

The UK looks more realistic, broadly rain moving south through Saturday, perhaps the odd flake/wintry flurry over the highest peaks of the region but I think anyone below 250m or so will struggle. 

Due to strong winds, evaporative cooling seems improbable due to higher mixing of the air. If the system is delayed by a few hours until after dark, we might be able to squeeze a little more out of it.

[Hotspur62]

Well last 2 mornings have bought the feel of winter in and although pleasant in the sun between 11-3 it is noticeable that temperature drops significantly after 3pm.Weekend looks interesting for SE thread but far too early to say if snow will happen for this region.Think only by Friday morning will we know if and where snow may fall taken past experience into account.At least there is Interest though and hope this bodes well for the winter as a whole and for the vast majority on this thread who would like to see the landscape turn white.

[Soaring Hawk]

It has felt bitter every time I opened an outside door today but having actually gone out for the evening dog walk it feels milder than yesterday.  Today's sun helped a top temperature of 9c at 13:20 after an overnight low of -0.1c at 01:30.  This was part of a range of 0.something temps between 11:30 last night and 05:30 this morning. Woke to a light frost. Current temp is 7c with 87% humidity. Another light wind day, with no records for a good part of the day.  Currently WNW at 2mph.  Average over 10 minutes is 0.1  Pressure 1029.6hPa falling slowly.  There's been 0.2mm of rain recorded although that's more likely frost melt? 

Took a few photos around 10am this morning, just really to compare the amount and colour of leaves with previous years on same dates.  These two show lingering frost in the shade and the moon picked up by phone camera. 

 

Edited November 23, 2021 by Soaring Hawk

[Blazerblue]

Frosty grass, car windscreens icy and in need of de-frosting, was a nice sunrise appearing before the cloud covered it. 2c currently, I believe winter is almost here  

[Sparky68]

19 minutes ago, Blazerblue said:

Frosty grass, car windscreens icy and in need of de-frosting, was a nice sunrise appearing before the cloud covered it. 2c currently, I believe winter is almost here  

and yet, just across the border it was 6c. 

[snowrye]

Thought it would be a bit busier in here than this