Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[North-Easterly Blast]

4 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Another fact CC when winter 1947 is quoted but is forgotten, is that the first half of the winter was not actually mild. It was a fairly cold winter overall up to the start of the truely exceptional spell. A lot of people think it was a mild winter until the severe spell struck, that might be another reason why it is frequented quoted to give an example of a "mild winter turning severe...late"  

I believe that the early part of the 1947 winter was rather cold actually, just not significantly so, but there was actually a very mild spell over the middle of January before the start of the exceptional freeze up a week or so later.  I think the reality is that 1947 was one of the few examples that I can think of for a severe winter becoming severe "late", in the second half of January, whereas the severe winter of 1962-63 became severe around December 22nd, and the severe winter of 1978-79 became severe around December 30th, so just a week later than 1962-63; the earlier severe winter of 1939-40 also became severe in late December I believe, similar to 1978-79; 1947 is a bit different in that respect in becoming severe later than those other examples I can think of.

Edited January 7, 2022 by North-Easterly Blast

[Climate Man]

11 hours ago, Climate Man said:

Standard mix but not temperatures.  I am running almost 3 deg average to date!

Can't edit.  Should read above average 

[North-Easterly Blast]

2 hours ago, tesaro said:

I remember a certain, well respected Poster, say that it would be extremely unlikely there would be a below average Winter Month again. Then Dec 2010 happened!

That was now 11 years ago; and when we have not had a winter that could reasonably be described as "cold" or at least bringing a significant cold spell to the UK since 2012-13, you have to think is it even possible to see a spell like Dec 2010, a winter like 2009-10 or even a winter like 2012-13 ever again.

[frosty ground]

Just now, North-Easterly Blast said:

That was now 11 years ago; and when we have not had a winter that could reasonably be described as "cold" or at least bringing a significant cold spell to the UK since 2012-13, you have to think is it even possible to see a spell like Dec 2010, a winter like 2009-10 or even a winter like 2012-13 ever again.

I remember people saying the same thing in the mid 2000’s 

 

[Valleyboy]

4 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Another fact CC when winter 1947 is quoted but is forgotten, is that the first half of the winter was not actually mild. It was a fairly cold winter overall up to the start of the truely exceptional spell. A lot of people think it was a mild winter until the severe spell struck, that might be another reason why it is frequented quoted to give an example of a "mild winter turning severe...late"  

The first half of winter 1947 was mild, 14c was widely recorded that January.

[Premiere Neige]

1 minute ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

That was now 11 years ago; and when we have not had a winter that could reasonably be described as "cold" or at least bringing a significant cold spell to the UK since 2012-13, you have to think is it even possible to see a spell like Dec 2010, a winter like 2009-10 or even a winter like 2012-13 ever again.

Why would you think that? Between 1900 and 1940 there were very few cold winters, maybe 2 or 3 that stand out in any way over a 40 year period!!

[Premiere Neige]

11 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

I believe that the early part of the 1947 winter was rather cold actually, just not significantly so, but there was actually a very mild spell over the middle of January before the start of the exceptional freeze up a week or so later.

Correct. 14°c was recorded on 17th January 1947.

[Nick L]

10 minutes ago, Climate Man said:

Can't edit.  Should read above average 

Edited it for you!

While I'm enjoying the chilly weather, it's notable how much of a struggle it's been these last couple of winters to get decent enough cold for anything other than marginal rubbish. Cold rain and sleet suits nobody.

 

[stainesbloke]

Chilly morning here with -5°C recorded. Clear skies allowed a nice view of the moon and Jupiter last night. Looks like a colder 7-10 days with ice days possible and a flurry or two of snow. 

Edited January 7, 2022 by stainesbloke

[Penrith Snow]

4 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Another fact CC when winter 1947 is quoted but is forgotten, is that the first half of the winter was not actually mild. It was a fairly cold winter overall up to the start of the truely exceptional spell. A lot of people think it was a mild winter until the severe spell struck, that might be another reason why it is frequented quoted to give an example of a "mild winter turning severe...late"  

This is a really good point, it is highly unusual even unprecedented that a very mild first half of winter (which this is) is followed by a cold second half. Winter 1946/47 had several notable cold spells prior to the big freeze, on the 7th January many areas were swept by blizzards as Atlantic fronts came up against the block.

The BFTE in 2018 was preceeded by a generally cold winter, the cold February of 1986 was preceeded by several January cold spells including a 15cms snowfall in Birmingham on the 6th.

The cold spells of February 1978 followed several in January........I could go on.

The chances of a notable second half of winter cold spell following a very mild first half is exceptionally low, we have to be realistic.

Andy

[SnowBear]

A bright and chilly morning here in Colchester, if anything it's nice to see the sun as opposed to the grey cloud. 

I think often here we suffer due to the North Sea, being only 5 miles away and we often get cloud along that coastal margin. Although in winter it can be miserable, in summer it can bring a welcome peg back of a few degrees in very high temperatures. 

There is a very interesting area going from around Claction-on-Sea, across West to the A12, down to roughly Chelmsford, and across to the Blackwater estuary which very much has its own microclimate compared to the rest of East Anglia to the point where often you can take the general EA forecast and reverse it, especially when rain is forecast. 

But today, I am glad to see the sun and the blue sky. 

[Summer Sun]

A level 3 cold weather alert remains in place for part of northern England until 9am on Monday

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/?tab=coldWeatherAlert&season=normal

 

[Eugene]

Gloriously cold crisp week with some hard night-time frosts, much better than what so many in MOD thread were calling a mild first week to Jan just a few weeks ago.

[North-Easterly Blast]

27 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

This is a really good point, it is highly unusual even unprecedented that a very mild first half of winter (which this is) is followed by a cold second half. Winter 1946/47 had several notable cold spells prior to the big freeze, on the 7th January many areas were swept by blizzards as Atlantic fronts came up against the block.

The BFTE in 2018 was preceeded by a generally cold winter, the cold February of 1986 was preceeded by several January cold spells including a 15cms snowfall in Birmingham on the 6th.

The cold spells of February 1978 followed several in January........I could go on.

The chances of a notable second half of winter cold spell following a very mild first half is exceptionally low, we have to be realistic.

Andy

Winter 2017-18 wasn't particularly cold overall - it was close to average; there were a few spells of colder weather earlier on that winter, but nothing out of the ordinary for an average winter.  I think that January 1978 was quite cold in the north but closer to average in the south; as there were many polar maritime outbreaks that month and the north got the brunt of the cold outbreaks but less so for the south.  

One example I can think of for a good synoptic setup in late winter after a largely mild first part of the winter was February 2005.  The first half of February 2012 brought a decent cold spell after a mild winter overall up to that point; but as you say, after a first half of winter without a significant cold outbreak the chances of a late winter freeze up like 1947, Feb 1986 etc are very low, and after past winters with a first half like this one probably the best we could hope for in the second half is something akin to Feb 2018.

[Staffmoorlands]

4 minutes ago, Eugene said:

Gloriously cold crisp week with some hard night-time frosts, much better than what so many in MOD thread were calling a mild first week to Jan just a few weeks ago.

Agree. We have had snow on the ground (2cm+ falls) in November, December and January. I can remember far worse winters! 

[LetItSnow!]

51 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

I remember people saying the same thing in the mid 2000’s 

 

To be fair, it's true. Set the scene, it's February 2008. We'd just gone through 10 years of warmer than average winters with cold spells a rarity (if you count 1995 & 1996 as flukes then you could argue 16 years). I wasn't old enough to even use the internet properly at the time but I can only imagine the atmosphere on weather forums at the time. I've looked at old NW posts from 2006-2007 and I don't think anyone believed a cold winter was ever going to happen again, and to be fair you couldn't blame them. The freak warm spell from May 2006 to June 2007 was still fresh in memory and seriously challenged any expectations of normality in our climate (a spell still unbeaten up to now, imo.). But then the winter of 2009 came, not a severe one by any means but it was cold. Then the following winter came, then the December to remember, then the other cold spells of that time (also with cool summer periods frequent too). The point is that there isn't much of a difference to what people were saying then and what they're saying now. We've seen record cold spells occur across the world in the past five years, even in the UK in 2018. We know it can still happen. Scandinavia has been having it quite cold so far. Even April and May 2021 challenged our ideas of never having appreciably colder than normal months in the warmer parts of the year. The point I'm making is that to write off the rest of the decade, century, heck even the rest of January, is nonsensical. We know things are different now, but I do not believe we are incapable of very cold spells or even a very cold winter. It's gonna happen eventually, maybe even soon. Whether it'll be a 1963 redux.... prefer a1684 myself 

[Skullzrulerz]

14 minutes ago, Eugene said:

Gloriously cold crisp week with some hard night-time frosts, much better than what so many in MOD thread were calling a mild first week to Jan just a few weeks ago.

You just never know what the weather will do one day to the next, there's always a few surprises down the road as they say.

Here in the south west it's currently mild for the time of year, if it's not raining it's usually cloudy or somewhat misty.

Last time I can remember it snowed and it settled on the ground was about 2 or 3 years ago, changing climate or just plain unlucky.

 

[Stabilo19]

Honestly roll on summer. It's been a poor winter IMBY, often overcast and almost always milder than average.

[Weather-history]

2 hours ago, Valleyboy said:

The first half of winter 1947 was mild, 14c was widely recorded that January.

It wasn't, it may have got to 14C that January but that didn't make the first half of that winter mild. 

Look at the CET for December 1946:  just 3.1C   The 1961-90 average is 4.7C

[SussexSnowman]

Cloudy and wet start to the day here in Sussex, but the sun making a fist of it. 5oC. 

Next week looks drier. All I can say is hey Scotland send some of that snow down here  

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

To be fair, it's true. Set the scene, it's February 2008. We'd just gone through 10 years of warmer than average winters with cold spells a rarity (if you count 1995 & 1996 as flukes then you could argue 16 years). I wasn't old enough to even use the internet properly at the time but I can only imagine the atmosphere on weather forums at the time. I've looked at old NW posts from 2006-2007 and I don't think anyone believed a cold winter was ever going to happen again, and to be fair you couldn't blame them. The freak warm spell from May 2006 to June 2007 was still fresh in memory and seriously challenged any expectations of normality in our climate (a spell still unbeaten up to now, imo.). But then the winter of 2009 came, not a severe one by any means but it was cold. Then the following winter came, then the December to remember, then the other cold spells of that time (also with cool summer periods frequent too). The point is that there isn't much of a difference to what people were saying then and what they're saying now. We've seen record cold spells occur across the world in the past five years, even in the UK in 2018. We know it can still happen. Scandinavia has been having it quite cold so far. Even April and May 2021 challenged our ideas of never having appreciably colder than normal months in the warmer parts of the year. The point I'm making is that to write off the rest of the decade, century, heck even the rest of January, is nonsensical. We know things are different now, but I do not believe we are incapable of very cold spells or even a very cold winter. It's gonna happen eventually, maybe even soon. Whether it'll be a 1963 redux.... prefer a1684 myself 

Just out of curiosity, how old are you?

I remember the late 2000s and early 10s producing arguably the best winters since 1995, 91 or even the mid 1980s era.

Feb 2009, Jan 2010, November and December 2010, Feb 2012, and January 2013 all produced snowfall, even in the London area. 
 

I don’t think the 1980s even gave London that many years with snow in a row.

Even the mid 2000s during that warmer phase after 1997 still gave us one day snowfalls in January 2003, thunder snow in January 2004(although didn’t last more than an hour or so) and March 2005 produced a light covering. 
 

Even last winter gave us one day of snow across west London and other areas, so like you, I believe a widespread snowfall will happen again. 
 

It’s almost the same as waiting for another 2018 summer, it will happen again, but a summer with a one week hot spell and several warm weeks mixed in with cloudy humid or cool conditions is the order of the day since 2019.

2022 will hopefully give us a sunnier summer, or at the very least a sunny clear late spring and early summer similar to 2020.

Winters have become milder since late 1987, however I would argue our summers have not become much better since the same period. Really nice sunny summers are few and far between, and the last good one was 2018. 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Where's all my snow us Southerners were meant to get today eh??!

[SussexSnowman]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

Just out of curiosity, how old are you?

I remember the late 2000s and early 10s producing arguably the best winters since 1995, 91 or even the mid 1980s era.

Feb 2009, Jan 2010, November and December 2010, Feb 2012, and January 2013 all produced snowfall, even in the London area. 
 

I don’t think the 1980s even gave London that many years with snow in a row.

Even the mid 2000s during that warmer phase after 1997 still gave us one day snowfalls in January 2003, thunder snow in January 2004(although didn’t last more than an hour or so) and March 2005 produced a light covering. 
 

Even last winter gave us one day of snow across west London and other areas, so like you, I believe a widespread snowfall will happen again. 
 

It’s almost the same as waiting for another 2018 summer, it will happen again, but a summer with a one week hot spell and several warm weeks mixed in with cloudy humid or cool conditions is the order of the day since 2019.

2022 will hopefully give us a sunnier summer, or at the very least a sunny clear late spring and early summer similar to 2020.

Winters have become milder since late 1987, however I would argue our summers have not become much better since the same period. Really nice sunny summers are few and far between, and the last good one was 2018. 

I do recall even in the early 2000's 2 snow events which were in March 2001 I think (might be over on the month) and in Feb 2005 here on the coast. The winter of 1999/2000 was awful. Non-stop rain from late October to nearly March in 2000. Plain yuk and even though at that time I was 19, it did feel like a turning point for more milder winters that followed. 

From 2009 to 2013 down here we had decent snowfall events. Since then aside from the BFTE 2018 and a cold day in Jan 2019, there's been a real snow drought. It does feel like that will be the trend that we have 6-7 relatively snowless winters and then maybe a small cluster of 2-3 winters with more snow events. I still hold a candle we could see something this winter (wishful thinking if anything else ).

[Staffmoorlands]

8 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Where's all my snow us Southerners were meant to get today eh??!

That was GFS only. Same as the Christmas freeze up which never happened

[*Stormforce~beka*]

2 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

That was GFS only. Same as the Christmas freeze up which never happened

I have a love/hate relationship with that one!