Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[Wold Topper]

1 hour ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Winter 2021-22 has plainly been one of the all time classics of the warm September = mild winter theory.  If I was to ever make a forecast, I will say that there will not this century, or ever again, be a cold winter in the UK following on from a high September CET, despite how good some other background signals may be. 

It appears if you have just got one thing wrong; a strong ocean anomaly either way (ENSO or IOD), or being close to or just after solar maximum, a high CET in the preceding September, or in most cases a westerly QBO, the odds are well and truly stacked against any decent cold patterns developing during the winter in the UK.   

The signals for a colder winter looked good IMO up until the end of last summer, with a number of people thinking that a colder winter in 2020-21 than in most recent years, and the first really cold April for 32 or 35 years, could be a teaser for something greater this winter, and all this combined with the position of the solar cycle looked more promising for this winter, but then all those promising signals evaporated when along came September 2021, which turned out to have the seventh warmest September CET on record, and going by the way that the UK's weather patterns have developed in previous years especially in recent times, it is clear that a high September CET does not bode well for cold conditions in the following winter, so basically winter 2021-22 is a winter that looked promising six months or more before it but was ruined by the warm September which most likely nailed the coffin for anything colder this winter.

Oh not again

[cheeky_monkey]

6 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

^ For the rest of the members on this forum, please don't take any of that onboard.

4 minutes ago, Wold Topper said:

Oh not again

agreed its total BS and have stated why IMO previously 

[snowspotter]

1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

agreed its total BS and have stated why IMO previously 

I did post a while back for someone to show the number of cold winters following a warm September and there was radio silence . So unless someone can prove otherwise maybe it’s a bit harsh just to say total BS to this persons comment .Now if you show me a number of cold winters following a warm September then fair play I will accept it . But not seen anything yet ! I haven’t the time to go back on 100 years data myself

[North-Easterly Blast]

I have got some idea as to what went wrong in some of our recent rubbish winters.  2013-14 was near solar maximum but not sure what went wrong for it to be as devoid of anything remotely cold as it was.  2015-16 had a strong El Nino.  2016-17 had a very warm September before it.  2018-19 I do not know what went wrong.  2019-20 had a strong positive IOD anomaly.  2021-22 had a very warm September before it.  Further back 2007-08 had a strong La Nina.  2006-07 had a very warm September before it.  As I say, it seems as in the UKs weather patterns that when only one of the following are in play; strong ocean anomaly either way (IOD, El Nino, La Nina), near solar maximum, a preceding September with a high CET, the winter is ruined from a cold perspective.

[Freeze]

30 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

I did post a while back for someone to show the number of cold winters following a warm September and there was radio silence . So unless someone can prove otherwise maybe it’s a bit harsh just to say total BS to this persons comment .Now if you show me a number of cold winters following a warm September then fair play I will accept it . But not seen anything yet ! I haven’t the time to go back on 100 years data myself

If you go back a few pages, weather-history provides multiple examples. Where even north easterly blast admits himself that the idea is flawed.

Edited February 18, 2022 by Freeze

[Wold Topper]

9 minutes ago, Freeze said:

If you go back a few pages, weather-history provides multiple examples. Where even north easterly blast admits himself that the idea is flawed.

Its quite amusing, this line gets trotted out about once a week lately, gets disproven with facts and data, goes quiet, then gets regurgitated a week later and so on, its borderline WUM territory  

[MP-R]

5 hours ago, damianslaw said:

I suspect the winter will be remembered as stormy due to this current weather but in reality it has been overall unusually benign.. but we only ever remember the extreme events. 

I think other than general naffness, I will remember this winter for being back to front. Today really felt more like November or December.

[Nick L]

It's as if all the interesting weather for the whole of a normal winter has just been concentrated into one week. It looks as though things will settle down again later next week with high pressure taking over, and then that's pretty much that for any snow down here this winter.

[Bristawl Si]

It's been a very benign winter down here. In fact, today and next few days, will look like an anomaly when we look back over the 3 months February '22 back to December 2021.

As for the theory - warm September, mild Winter to follow? Bunkum!

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 hours ago, sundog said:

The only extreme I will remember it for is for being extremely crap.

nailed it.

[The real Lomond snowstorm]

5 hours ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

I appreciate that some on here don't like the current weather conditions, but after several weeks of essentially nothingness it is nice to have a change. 

 

The problem is that in this part of the world we haven't had several weeks of nothingness.

We've had three and a half weeks of almost continuous strong winds and gales combined with rain/sleet or squally showers. Pretty much what we're going to get for the forseeable. 

We did have plenty of very gloomy, calm and relatively dry "nothingness " in December and some of  January but since then we've caught the southern edge of a conveyor belt of systems coming across the Atlantic. The only consolation is that I don't live in Iceland where I'm sure they will be saying that I'm lucky.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

On 18/02/2022 at 23:55, The real Lomond snowstorm said:

The problem is that in this part of the world we haven't had several weeks of nothingness.

We've had three and a half weeks of almost continuous strong winds and gales combined with rain/sleet or squally showers. Pretty much what we're going to get for the forseeable. 

We did have plenty of very gloomy, calm and relatively dry "nothingness " in December and some of  January but since then we've caught the southern edge of a conveyor belt of systems coming across the Atlantic. The only consolation is that I don't live in Iceland where I'm sure they will be saying that I'm lucky.

I am sorry to hear that. 

Whilst I am enjoying the current conditions, I certainly wouldn't want to have them for weeks on end. I hope you get some nice weather soon. 

[Northwest NI]

6 hours ago, The real Lomond snowstorm said:

The problem is that in this part of the world we haven't had several weeks of nothingness.

We've had three and a half weeks of almost continuous strong winds and gales combined with rain/sleet or squally showers. Pretty much what we're going to get for the forseeable. 

We did have plenty of very gloomy, calm and relatively dry "nothingness " in December and some of  January but since then we've caught the southern edge of a conveyor belt of systems coming across the Atlantic. The only consolation is that I don't live in Iceland where I'm sure they will be saying that I'm lucky.

No they’re lucky getting to live in such a beautiful place!

[The real Lomond snowstorm]

They do live in a very beautiful place though perhaps a little too barren for my tastes to want to live there.  Much as I love mountains I am also fond of trees and forests and more greenery than they can provide. Plus I don't think I'd like to live in a country where there are is virtually no daylight for spells in winter. Finally, the total population is roughly the same as Stoke-on-Trent and that is a little too small  for me even though they enjoy a great standard of living.

BTW Glasgow being the nearest large city with direct flights to Iceland, used to get quite a lot of Icelandic people coming to do their Christmas shopping though I'm not sure if it still happens in the age of internet shopping.

Edited February 19, 2022 by The real Lomond snowstorm

[Summer8906]

16 hours ago, The real Lomond snowstorm said:

Well we had 5 to 7cm of snow today but as usual it fell for less than was forecast yesterday and turned to sleet and rain showers after 10am. It's mostly gone now.

And we have yellow warnings for ice tomorrow and for wind Sunday and Monday.

As Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to be even windier and next weekend is looking stormy, I'm wondering how many consecutive days we can have weather warnings.

Wondering if we'll reach Storm Zoe (or whatever name has been allocated) by the middle of March....

[NewEra21]

Just to touch on the warm September nonsense (imo).

Uk winters are always more likely to be mild overall than cold, and September is no player in what may be ahead imo.

The majority of winters we're ultimately relying on a SSW for any meaningful cold, so in September it's just a wild stab in the dark.

Obviously cold spells in the UK seem to be becoming rarer and rarer, but I don't buy the warm September stuff. Nowadays it's just more of case whether we can see a SSW to save winter or not. 

Edited February 19, 2022 by NewEra21

[Summer8906]

17 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me if we are heading into another mediocre summer. At worst, we will probably see 4 weeks of sunny warm days at some point between April and September, in between 2 months of cloudy dull weather.

 

I do think that this could be one of the warmest years on record for the UK, because it does seem that once a 'mild' pattern sets in, it persists for quite a while, in the sense that we get a long sequence of mild months with just the odd occasional cold one. For example spring 2006-spring 2007, July 2013-November 2014, June 1994-November 1995, or late 1988-late 1990. (The same also happens for a 'cold' pattern, so October 2020-August 2021 had a high frequency of relatively cold conditions).

So I am expecting a warm spring and autumn. Summer I'm not so sure about; one of the anomalies of the increasingly warm climate has been that summer temps have not risen so much, perhaps because the warming climate is related to increased Atlantic activity, and that raises temps in most seasons but not summer. So I am expecting a somewhat-disappointing summer, with CET perhaps average but mean maxima somewhat below (in 2 of the 3 months; in many years one of the three months is half-decent) and cloudier than average, simply because this has become the norm since 2007. I hope I am wrong about summer, but if April turns out typically fine again, I guess it'll be a good idea, on balance, to enjoy it!

So perhaps we'll get something like 2011, in which typical maxima flatlined at around 17-20C in the south for each month from April to October, due to the very warm spring and autumn and cool (by day) summer.

Maybe the next flip to cold will be just in time for next winter (the end of 1995 showed a marked flip to cold just at the 'right time'), and February 2023 will be the coldest since 1986, or at least 1991. Or, more realistically, at least it will feature a few days of lying snow, even if it's only slightly colder than average. You never know....

Edited February 19, 2022 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

3 hours ago, The real Lomond snowstorm said:

They do live in a very beautiful place though perhaps a little too barren for my tastes to want to live there.  Much as I love mountains I am also fond of trees and forests and more greenery than they can provide. Plus I don't think I'd like to live in a country where there are is virtually no daylight for spells in winter. Finally, the total population is roughly the same as Stoke-on-Trent and that is a little too small  for me even though they enjoy a great standard of living.

BTW Glasgow being the nearest large city with direct flights to Iceland, used to get quite a lot of Icelandic people coming to do their Christmas shopping though I'm not sure if it still happens in the age of internet shopping.

Iceland does fascinate me, and I would like to visit there at some point, though as you say a little too isolated to actually live there, plus the lack of warmth of course.

They do recover from their winter darkness very fast though, due to the high latitude. Reykjavik sunset is already at 18:15, later than the UK, so very long, very light evenings will be upon them very soon.

I would go as far as to say Icelandic winter weather is probably (I haven't experienced it) better than that of southern England even though springs and summers are much worse. They of course get much more in the way of damaging wind storms, but one might presume their architecture is built to withstand them; and critically they get much more in the way of 'proper' winter weather as in snow, ice and frost.

The problem with our 'Atlantic' weather here in the UK is maybe not the actual unsettled nature (although I don't welcome really damaging wind storms such as 'Eunice', nor washout Sundays like that of last weekend) but the mild, dull, wishy-washy nature of the weather for much of the time. Higher-latitude locations such as Iceland get the proper, real-deal Pm airmasses so I would guess are much sunnier (as well as colder, of course) in between the fronts.

Edited February 19, 2022 by Summer8906

[MP-R]

Back to uninspiring conditions again today. Cold too in that wind.

[snowspotter]

13 hours ago, Freeze said:

If you go back a few pages, weather-history provides multiple examples. Where even north easterly blast admits himself that the idea is flawed.

I’ll check it out must have scrolled past it 

[North-Easterly Blast]

1 hour ago, NewEra21 said:

Just to touch on the warm September nonsense (imo).

Uk winters are always more likely to be mild overall than cold, and September is no player in what may be ahead imo.

The majority of winters we're ultimately relying on a SSW for any meaningful cold, so in September it's just a wild stab in the dark.

Obviously cold spells in the UK seem to be becoming rarer and rarer, but I don't buy the warm September stuff. Nowadays it's just more of case whether we can see a SSW to save winter or not. 

A SSW does not guarantee cold conditions for the UK, it just significantly increases the chance of northern blocking, but everything else has to fall favourably for us in the UK, as the blocking has to set up favourably to bring cold airstreams into the UK, and an SSW still does not guarantee the pattern to set up favourably.

Looking back, I do not think that there was an SSW that influenced the cold patterns in winter 2009-10; correct me if I am wrong?  I also do not think that there was a SSW before the severe spell in December 2010?  Although I think that most recently, there was a SSW in early 2021 but I do not think that there was prior to the colder weather we had in late December 2020 and early January 2021?

So it appears that a SSW is not the be all and end all for colder winter weather in the UK.

[Summer8906]

Surprisingly early end to the rain here. The forecast GFS charts suggesting the 'kink' in the isobars over this area about 3pm, which meant I would not have expected the rain to stop until around 4pm or so.

Edited February 19, 2022 by Summer8906

[The real Lomond snowstorm]

3 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

I so very long, very light evenings will be upon them very soon.

I would go as far as to say Icelandic winter weather is probably (I haven't experienced it) better than that of southern England even though springs and summers are much worse. They of course get much more in the way of damaging wind storms, but one might presume their architecture is built to withstand them; and critically they get much more in the way of 'proper' winter weather as in snow, ice and frost.

The problem with our 'Atlantic' weather here in the UK is maybe not the actual unsettled nature (although I don't welcome really damaging wind storms such as 'Eunice', nor washout Sundays like that of last weekend) but the mild, dull, wishy-washy nature of the weather for much of the time. Higher-latitude locations such as Iceland get the proper, real-deal Pm airmasses so I would guess are much sunnier (as well as colder, of course) in between the fronts.

Though long summer evenings are nice, I have to say that when we get past 17 hours here it does mess with my body clock a bit. Even in cloudy Scotland. I'm not sure that extremely long days are an advantage. I know when it starts to get light at 03:30 I quite often wake up. It is not just the light but the sounds of the birds singing and squabbling, which is nice at a sensible time but...

I do agree that the worst part of UK weather and especially the wetter parts of the country is the gloom. You can go three weeks and never see blue sky or sun here and it rains about 200 days a year.

Reykjavik certainly gets a lot less rain than I do, less rainy days and overall it is less windy as well, though how much wind you receive is very much dependent on local conditions and geography. It also, as you say, has pretty terrible summers even by Scottish standards.

I think if I was looking for an ideal climate I would look south to the Alps, with warm summers, plenty of thunderstorms and mostly snowy winters and relatively quiet as far as the wind is concerned (they go hillwalking with umbrellas, if you did that in Scotland you'd do a Mary Poppins)

 

[Snowyowl9]

If you wanted extreme cold this winter you`d want to go to Turkey,where animals had frozen solid in the fields including sheep,never seen anything like that..before..

Turkey was getting all the cold and snow from 2005 if I remember..

Well this winter however brief has given a covering of snow each month here since november....Remarkable fete considering how boring its been.

[RabbitEars]

Ramp... snow starved Isle of Man saw 2 hours of lovely big wet sticky flakes today, between about 10am and 12noon.... all melting now. ❄❄