Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, Lance M said:

What are people's thoughts on how this year compares to 2020? I know that 2020 featured a mild January (but I can't remember how wet or dry it was), and of course we all remember how stormy its February was. So I can at least say it's been a similar year so far.

If we start to see the Spring becoming dry with crazily clear skies, we might be on for a repeat of the first half of 2020! (tongue in cheek of course; you can't predict future months based on a previous Jan-Feb period being similar alone!)

January 2020 was a lot milder, and significantly wetter than this one, and quite a bit cloudier with only limited frosts. Some similarity perhaps in the way the jet stream did sink southwards as February 2020 was  wetter than January.

I'd say 2000 is the best historical analogue (edit, sorry I see this has been discussed up-thread).

My feeling is for a warm spring, and based on recent trends and historical analogues I'd expect one spell of very sunny, dry weather most likely late March or April. I'm aware April 2000 was cold and wet but I'm weighing that against the tendency for April to be warm and settled these days.

Edited February 20, 2022 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

11 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

November 1996 was generally a northerly month, especially in the second half, and not especially a +NAO zonal polar maritime pattern.  You are correct that early March 1995 was another good example of a +NAO polar maritime cold zonal pattern.  What I meant is that January 1984 brought a good cold spell in the second half without any significant high latitude blocking.  For most of the month the zonal flow brought frequent snowfalls to the northern half of Britain, and in the spell of colder weather in the second half an Atlantic flow brought widespread snowfalls to large parts of the country, and that was still with a polar vortex over NE Canada and Greenland.  January 1984 was definitely up there amongst the all time classic spells for weather enthusiasts as it showed how it was still possible for it to be cold in the UK even when there was no significant high latitude blocking, and January 1984 still showed how it was possible for a zonal flow to bring widespread snowfall.

In the south Jan 1984 was a dud though; the MWR summary for the month is "Cold in the north but mild and wet in the south; stormy"  (which sounds, in the south, rather like the current month!) Mean max in SE England was +1.3C above average, mean temp +0.9C above average and rainfall 185% of average. Little wonder that I remember this as the 2nd-worst January of the 80s (behind only 1988). Even the Midlands was marginally above average, and NW England very, very marginally below average. Much, much better was the following January, and the one three years later.

I do take your point though in many cases "cold zonality" will fail to deliver for the south. March 1995 did much better though, with two snow events in the south IIRC; on the 2nd towards the SW and perhaps a week later towards the SE.

Re Nov 1996 I do seem to remember a NW-SE flow with fairly regular NW-SE travelling Atlantic lows, which is why I mentioned it, though yes it had more of a northerly component than the others.

Edited February 20, 2022 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

6 hours ago, damianslaw said:

No thanks to another 2000 a very wet year as you say. A poor summer followed by exceptionally wet conditions in Autumn. I remember a cold snowy northerly early April.. we'll probably get one of them this year! It was a slightly milder version of 2012 from April onwards probably worst such spell I've endured perpetually wet and cold.

I don't think 2000 was anything like as bad as 2012 down here (except, of course, the autumn).

Summer 2000 was nondescript. Rather cloudy, temps close to or maybe a little below average, but in the main, dry. Much better than summer 2012. The really bad weather only really started on September 18th, though of course then it didn't let up for three months - along with winter 13/14, by far the most extreme wet period of my lifetime (though autumn-winter 19/20 was notable for prolonged, if less severe, wetness).

[North-Easterly Blast]

20 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

In the south Jan 1984 was a dud though; the MWR summary for the month is "Cold in the north but mild and wet in the south; stormy"  (which sounds, in the south, rather like the current month!) Mean max in SE England was +1.3C above average, mean temp +0.9C above average and rainfall 185% of average. Little wonder that I remember this as the 2nd-worst January of the 80s (behind only 1988). Even the Midlands was marginally above average, and NW England very, very marginally below average. Much, much better was the following January, and the one three years later.

 

I never meant to say that January 1984 was a notably cold month like the same month in 1985 and 1987.  What I meant to say was that for its synoptics on the weather charts, such as a positive NAO pattern and a zonal flow, January 1984 was cold, and it did show that a +NAO pattern did bring significant snowfalls during the month even as far south as the Midlands at times, and it did become cold over most of the country for a time in the second half, and it showed that this was possible without high latitude blocking.  The overall CET for January 1984 was 3.8*C (close to average for that time but quite cold by recent standards); logic suggests that for its synoptics and a positive NAO pattern, its CET should have been milder than that but it wasn't.

[Summer8906]

3 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

November 2021 wasn't that especially mild though, it had a CET of 7.3, which is about average for recent standards but a little above older 1971-2000 and 1961-90 averages, and was a fair bit cooler than Nov 1999's 7.9. 

Strange how memory plays tricks on you because I do not remember Nov 1999 as mild; I do remember a prolonged settled, sunny dry spell for much of the month (which one might guess was colder than average) so I presume short spells of extreme mildness early and late dragged the CET upwards.

 

2 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

I never meant to say that January 1984 was a notably cold month like the same month in 1985 and 1987.  What I meant to say was that for its synoptics on the weather charts, such as a positive NAO pattern and a zonal flow, January 1984 was cold, and it did show that a +NAO pattern did bring significant snowfalls during the month even as far south as the Midlands at times, and it did become cold over most of the country for a time in the second half, and it showed that this was possible without high latitude blocking.  The overall CET for January 1984 was 3.8*C (close to average for that time but quite cold by recent standards); logic suggests that for its synoptics and a positive NAO pattern, its CET should have been milder than that but it wasn't.

Yes, that's a fair point. I think if I had had as strong an interest in the weather in Jan 1984 as I do now, I'd have spent the whole month envious of what was going on up north while us down here had perpetual wind and rain! (or at least that's how it seemed...)

Edited February 20, 2022 by Summer8906

[The real Lomond snowstorm]

On 19/02/2022 at 18:37, cheese said:

. Reykjavik gets 20 hours of sun on average in January, or 12% of possible sunshine. Even accounting for the latitude difference that is appallingly low. 
 

Reykjavik has what I like to call ‘limbo winters’ - cold enough to be unpleasant, but not cold enough for reliable snowfall. Average highs in January are 3C, similar to Copenhagen (another city with rubbish winters) and milder than cities such as Stockholm, Warsaw, Helsinki, Kyiv etc. Reykjavik is more likely to be wet than white I’m afraid. 

 

My nearest weather station says I get an average of 36 hrs in January, so it is better but it is hardly going to have the tourists coming for a top up of vitamin D.

Realistically, the sun is so low in Reykjavik in January that you'll probably not see it unless you're in quite an open space. Even here it is between 11 and 17 degrees at solar noon so in the unlikely event of a sunny day you're most likely only going to see it in the hours around noon and it is quite red shifted due to the low angle in early January.

[Nick L]

If it wasn't for high pressure taking over for the end of the week, we would be going the entirety of Feb without a frost.

[Puddy Galore]

Well, I am going to say I am absolutely sick fed up and totally weary of these troublesome never ending poxy windstorms now.

[Scorcher]

54 minutes ago, Snowycat said:

Well, I am going to say I am absolutely sick fed up and totally weary of these troublesome never ending poxy windstorms now.

Agreed, it really is getting extremely tiresome now. Hopefully we're through the worst of it after this week.

[mb018538]

2 hours ago, Snowycat said:

Well, I am going to say I am absolutely sick fed up and totally weary of these troublesome never ending poxy windstorms now.

You and me both. Can't stand them. Give me that quiet weather back any time.

 

[Azazel]

8 DAYS LEFT!

 

And we all know winter will actually arrive in March.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

I am in two minds about these windstorms. Whilst it is fascinating and I do like listening to the wind when I am nice and cosy tucked up in bed, the problem is that all this season's storms came at once as opposed to being more scattered throughout the winter; same thing happened with autumn. It does seem relatively common just lately to have weeks on end of benign conditions, only then for the atlantic to arrive with a vengeance before going back to weeks on end of benign conditions again.

Someone needs to get our weather, put it in a bag and mix it all up.

Edited February 21, 2022 by Weather Enthusiast91

[damianslaw]

Funny how just a couple of weeks ago many were complaining about lack of anything happening for weeks.. fast forward to now many saying they want nothing to happen again! Never happy are we!

[MP-R]

4 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Funny how just a couple of weeks ago many were complaining about lack of anything happening for weeks.. fast forward to now many saying they want nothing to happen again! Never happy are we!

I was quite happy with the settled conditions. Although a bit arduous when it was grey, the lengthy sunshine and frosts were welcome.

The last week, although eventful, has just been a nuisance.

[damianslaw]

7 minutes ago, MP-R said:

I was quite happy with the settled conditions. Although a bit arduous when it was grey, the lengthy sunshine and frosts were welcome.

The last week, although eventful, has just been a nuisance.

The last week has felt more akin to a week in December.

[NewEra21]

Feels like each season arrives a season late. Autumn finally shows up in winter, winter in spring, spring in summer and summer in autumn.

I just wish we could see proper seasonal weather for a change, is that too much to ask for in the UK nowadays? Sure feels like it!

[karyo]

59 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

Feels like each season arrives a season late. Autumn finally shows up in winter, winter in spring, spring in summer and summer in autumn.

I just wish we could see proper seasonal weather for a change, is that too much to ask for in the UK nowadays? Sure feels like it!

I don't see winter in spring. I think winter has completely vanished as a season. Spring and autumn have extended and taken its place.

[NewEra21]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

I don't see winter in spring. I think winter has completely vanished as a season. Spring and autumn have extended and taken its place.

Yep, have to agree unfortunately.

It feels like the only chance of seeing anything true winter related nowadays is if we see a SSW, and even then there's no guarantee.

But without a SSW, winter seems non existent nowadays.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

On 21/02/2022 at 13:20, damianslaw said:

Funny how just a couple of weeks ago many were complaining about lack of anything happening for weeks.. fast forward to now many saying they want nothing to happen again! Never happy are we!

All part and parcel of being British. We are notorious for moaning about the weather. No matter what it's doing. 

[LRD]

Even with the obvious warming in our climate, not seeing a single snowflake in my location all winter is still an incredible event. And that is going to happen this year by the looks of things

I like cold and snow in the winter months (and November and even the first half of March) but I'm willing the mild weather on until the end of Feb now to make it snowless - it'd be a real event. Not a welcome one but an event nonetheless. Early March can be cold if it wants. But the cold can sod off from mid-March until mid-October

Even in 1988-89 we had snow right at the end. I think I must have had other snowless winters before - 1991-92 maybe, 1997-98 perhaps? 2013-14? But even in most of the mild winters we have seen some snowfall even if it was short-lived. At our latitude having none at all is a remarkable thing and, unfortunately, will only become more common now. Especially in my neck of the woods, in low lying southern England

Edited February 21, 2022 by LRD

[LRD]

1 hour ago, karyo said:

I don't see winter in spring. I think winter has completely vanished as a season. Spring and autumn have extended and taken its place.

Yes got to agree. We've basically been in 'autumn' since mid-August IMBY

[cyclonic happiness]

3 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Funny how just a couple of weeks ago many were complaining about lack of anything happening for weeks.. fast forward to now many saying they want nothing to happen again! Never happy are we!

I'm happy with all this weather action, it's much better than the anticyclonic gloom we had for weeks a short while ago

[LRD]

3 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

I'm happy with all this weather action, it's much better than the anticyclonic gloom we had for weeks a short while ago

Agree. January was one of the most desperate 'winter' months I have ever experienced. A few frosts where I am but, basically, nothing happened. So at least something is happening at the moment

Thing is this weather we're experiencing now is very un-February like. This is more November in nature

[sundog]

I just want this pathetic excuse of a winter out of the way at this stage. Looking forward to the arrival of spring.  That's been my attitude over many recent winters ,very  poor winters regarding cold spells and snow. If February isn't going to deliver then its a waste of time,  time to move on. It can be depressing this time of Yr  especially  after many weeks of a winter that delivered nothing  and won't deliver anything with what is left of it only poxy wind and rain.

[damianslaw]

7 hours ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

All part and parcel of being British. We are notorious for moaning about the weather. No matter what it's doing. 

Yes it's the nation's grumble. Even in summer when we've had say 5 days of sunshine mid 20s and no rain, there will always be some saying it's hot and too dry! 

5 hours ago, sundog said:

I just want this pathetic excuse of a winter out of the way at this stage. Looking forward to the arrival of spring.  That's been my attitude over many recent winters ,very  poor winters regarding cold spells and snow. If February isn't going to deliver then its a waste of time,  time to move on. It can be depressing this time of Yr  especially  after many weeks of a winter that delivered nothing  and won't deliver anything with what is left of it only poxy wind and rain.

Last winter though was fairly wintry overall and felt like winter at least. Agree this one not the case and we've had too many recently in that group.