Model output discussion - Christmas approaches

[Ali1977]

ECM and GFS at 120, ECM shortwave a little further south so might be ok 

[Ali1977]

Too far North fir most although a nice shaped Greeny high, hopefully it inches south at 168. Decent GEFS but not good that all Ops have moved things North - hoping the EC ENS follow the GEFS 

Soooo close at 168, still it raises an eyebrow that the Ops are all shifting slightly North - but let’s not be concerned as they may well shift south - slider sets ups often do someone was saying

Edited December 17, 2021 by Ali1977

[Lukesluckybunch]

Setting up good here at 168

[MJB]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Too far North fir most although a nice shaped Greeny high, hopefully it inches south at 168. Decent GEFS but not good that all Ops have moved things North - hoping the EC ENS follow the GEFS 

Soooo close at 168

A week is huge in terms of modelling in  this set up , it's good we are in the game I say .

Edited December 17, 2021 by MJB

[Met4Cast]

Worrying about a shift of a couple of hundred miles really is wasting your energy, a shift of 200-300 miles globally is absolutely minuscule, sure it makes a big difference at the surface, but hardly worth worrying about 8 days out.

The broadscale pattern remains the same, GFS is still struggling with the split flow & subsequent trough disruption.

[sheikhy]

Theres a reason to my silence since 5pm yesterday when snowman and i kept mentioning keep your feet on the ground thanks to that shortwave whilst everyone was going mad in here!!!not over yet could still swing back but i just thought i sit back and just watch lol!!

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Theres a reason to my silence since 5pm yesterday when snowman and i kept mentioning keep your feet on the ground thanks to that shortwave whilst everyone was going mad in here!!!not over yet could still swing back but i just thought i sit back and just watch lol!!

Swing back to what? It's the coldest ensemble suite so far lmao

[Captain Shortwave]

Still plenty of time for changes in the medium range that could get the jet stream far enough south for widespread Christmas snow.

However longer term, the lower levels of the polar vortex are toast. Good agreement on a fatal three wave attack from the Pacific, Atlantic and Siberian ridges. If Christmas Day ends up wet then chances are that another chance will appear shortly afterwards.

That said I would love to get the cold in across the U.K. for the big day.

Edited December 17, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

Swing back to what? It's the coldest ensemble suite so far lmao

Lets keep it going met4cast!!!!

[mulzy]

Close but no cigar on the ECM (at least for the southern half of the country).  As I mentioned earlier the eastward progression of the southerly tracking lows is the problem - the jet is buckling over continental Europe raising heights in SE Euope.

Still in the game though!

[mountain shadow]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Theres a reason to my silence since 5pm yesterday when snowman and i kept mentioning keep your feet on the ground thanks to that shortwave whilst everyone was going mad in here!!!not over yet could still swing back but i just thought i sit back and just watch lol!!

Looks absolutely fine to me. Just a bit slower with the transition.

[bluearmy]

35 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Trending the wrong way guys.  Need a decent ECM.  Another problem that the eps picked up last night is not enough eastward progression of the southerly tracking lows - heights are beginning to rise over south east Europe resulting in lows stalling.  Let's hope that this trend reverses.  Meanwhile eyes down for the ECM.

It isn’t over yet because the lW trough could easily reset 500 miles further south come verification but at the moment, the failure of the heights to push nw as much means the jet encounters less resistance and we don’t drive as much cold air south before the troughs push in anyway. 
 

that failure of heights is not that far away and all the models on the same page so you’d think this initial chance of widespread wintry ness is a Scotland/n england risk for now. 
thereafter we olay a new game of clearing the trough and sinking the cold - may happen but just as likely not to as too far away for now. 

[Met4Cast]

I suspect the negative comments are from those broadly south of the M4, this forum is a bit of a joke sometimes.

Fantastic set of charts this morning, ECM very similar to yesterdays 12z run and marginally better than the GFS in that the lows phase further south. We don't need -10c 850hPa temperatures countrywide in these setups, -3/-4c will be plenty for widespread snow. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

The heights into Greenland are the main and crucial thing. How it evolves from that will be the question. I’d like to see those heights more widespread towards Scandinavia, and less influence of that big area of low heights there, as that is effectively going to bottle the cold up as shown. 

[Ali1977]

Much better by Boxing Day, this is soo close to 3/4 days of snow country wide!! C’mon EC ENS

 

Edited December 17, 2021 by Ali1977

[Battleground Snow]

This is what the ECM looked liked 3 days ago for Xmas eve, and this is what it looks like today,

Are people really worrying about a trend of 250 miles north on charts that are over 7 days away?

 

[MJB]

Anyone moaning about this please switch the light off and shut the door on your way out - yes much can change and will but for now that aint bad at all 

[That ECM]

There’s a naughty chart for some.

 

so the rain/snow roulette wheel is turning the ball is bouncing around. If lands on rain, with that nhp the wheel will get spun again. Fascinating and I’m really enjoying it.

[northwestsnow]

The broadscale pattern is fabulous ..

Synoptically incredible really.

Let's hope the models push the lows a little south ..

 

[Man With Beard]

To my eye, the ECM keeps the trend going, this time with the snow line dropping progressively further south during Christmas Day, eventually reaching the far south during Boxing Day.

But it's all about the trend for now. It's tight for snow, but then it always is for the UK. Just being within the margin of error at all is good news right now!

[mulzy]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

There’s a naughty chart for some.

 

so the rain/snow roulette wheel is turning the ball is bouncing around. If lands on rain, with that nhp the wheel will get spun again. Fascinating and I’m really enjoying it.

We desperately need @Tim Bland and his snow charts! 

Edited December 17, 2021 by mulzy

[northwestsnow]

Cold...

That chart is a thing of beauty...

❤

Edited December 17, 2021 by northwestsnow

[Ali1977]

Day 10 is a chilly one ️ The PV is shredded 

[That ECM]

On 17/12/2021 at 06:54, mulzy said:

We desperately need @Tim Bland and his snow charts! 

Especially for these.

[northwestsnow]

Western Europe cold.

Eastern Europe mild

very rare set up...

I can live with transient rain events if colder air is incoming...

Edited December 17, 2021 by northwestsnow