Model output discussion - Christmas approaches

[TSNWK]

To think a couple of days ago we worried about heights sinking south over Christmas and the jet riding over the top, now the worry for same time frame is heights too far north and the jet riding at too high a latitude underneath... Huge changes a tiny correction back south has to within the envelope at 7 days away

[Malarky]

Just now, frosty ground said:

What’s the story?

To my untrained eye, door to the east open for UK, pv much less organised.

[mulzy]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

What’s the story?

Stronger block over Greenland (this morning's eps vs yesterday morning set).

[saintkip]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

What’s the story?

Yeah what’s the story?  The not so clued up posters like me have no idea what that shows

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Stronger block over Greenland (this morning's eps vs yesterday morning set).

Yep much stronger , possibly much better longer term but Xmas day the cold is further North as per the Ops trend. As Blue says, still can change , and most likely will one way or another 

Edited December 17, 2021 by Ali1977

[SnowBlake]

30 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Western Europe cold.

Eastern Europe mild

very rare set up...

I can live with transient rain events if colder air is incoming...

This whole idea that -8 uppers are needed for the temp to be 0c more or less at 2m to me is nonsense.

I spent large parts of winter in Eastern Latvia, and what you see as being above 0c 850 temps will actually still be minus here at 2m. On 6-9th it was minus 18 to minus 24, and uppers were not minus 26 to minus 32.

It is forecast to be minus 15 in a few days and the uppers are looking around minus 12.

The 12 inches of snow we had last week is melting rapidly today as it has been 1 to 4c for a couple of days now but Sunday due more snow and temps to start dropping with more snowfall next week in the run up to Christmas. 8 inches fell on 25th here last year.

Anyway, things are looking up, may start looking at staking some chocolate coins on some white stuff in various parts of the country.

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, saintkip said:

Yeah what’s the story?  The not so clued up posters like me have no idea what that shows

The block over greeny has become a specific feature and the trough from scandi has extended down over us BUT the pattern has corrected too far nw - only 500/700 miles but it makes a huge difference to our little island! 

it’s a fantastic winter pattern for us IF it was adjusted east/southeast …… Please Santa ……

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, saintkip said:

Yeah what’s the story?  The not so clued up posters like me have no idea what that shows

Perhaps ba is trying to emphasise the shift of the colder air away to the NE

[bluearmy]

Just now, knocker said:

Perhaps ba is trying to emphasise the shift of the colder air away to the NE

That’s a consequence- yes 

[MattStoke]

Given that models often overestimate the north/east progression of Atlantic frontal systems up against blocking high pressure, it is probably better that they are showing things a little too north for the majority of the U.K. population this far out. If they were currently showing things just perfect at this range, it’d be more likely but far from guaranteed that fronts stay south/west of the U.K. come the time.

Edited December 17, 2021 by MattStoke

[Malarky]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Given that models often overestimate the north/east progression of Atlantic frontal systems up against blocking high pressure, it is probably better that they are showing things a little too north for the majority of the U.K. population this far out. If they were currently showing things just perfect at this range, it’d be more likely but far from guaranteed that fronts stay south/west if the U.K. come the time.

What I’ve never understood about this common perception, is why, if everyone thinks this, they don’t get the big Phillips screwdriver out and turn the adjustment screw 45 degrees clockwise to make the models more accurate?

[chris55]

1 minute ago, Malarky said:

What I’ve never understood about this common perception, is why, if everyone thinks this, they don’t get the big Phillips screwdriver out and turn the adjustment screw 45 degrees clockwise to make the models more accurate?

Think of Neo in the matrix, its an imperfect manifest anomaly in an otherwise perfect weather forecast algorithm

 

[knocker]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The block over greeny has become a specific feature and the trough from scandi has extended down over us BUT the pattern has corrected too far nw - only 500/700 miles but it makes a huge difference to our little island! 

it’s a fantastic winter pattern for us IF it was adjusted east/southeast …… Please Santa ……

Now come on.......this begging is quite unseemly.

[Ali1977]

Xmas day mean looks very good, especially further north . Do slider set ups need -6/8c uppers though - would heavier precip not bring snow to the south too

Edited December 17, 2021 by Ali1977

[Battleground Snow]

UKMO v ECM 168

Hard to tell where the ukmo would go after this

[Mair Snaw]

Very confusing in here this morning.. i cant work out if a trend north being bad for the south is a bad thing for those of us in the north?? Is Scotland in the firing line in this set up??

As always when cold is coming it turns very personal in here and people seem to get very short fused.

We always get these wobbles when cold and snaw is in the offering.. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

between the 24,25th the ECM op was almost the warmest the mean a lot colder!

[Ali1977]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

UKMO v ECM 168

Hard to tell where the ukmo would go after this

UKMO looks colder with the snow line further south does it not?

[chris55]

Cold air digging in xmas day into Boxing Day 

Boundary frontal snowfall a possibility as the cold air tucks in. Also snow showers in the north. 
 

Overall a slower evolution to colder conditions but the long wave pattern with the substantial Greenland high is very good for sustained cold.

[Battleground Snow]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

UKMO looks colder with the snow line further south does it not?

Pretty close I'd say, big difference to the east though

Edited December 17, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Bald Eagle]

19 minutes ago, saintkip said:

Yeah what’s the story?  The not so clued up posters like me have no idea what that shows

Noone knows... what will happen will happen. Its like being in Ladbrokes trying to pick a greyhound winner on a wet Tuesday afternoon

[damianslaw]

Confused.com this morning. Reading the posts was expecting the loe pressure to have shifted to Scotland. Alas all I can see from GFS and ECM is a slight shift north but everything going underneath enough to keep the UK cold and possibly get snowy. The charts for christmas day nd Boxing day this morning look very snowy to me. Am I missing something? 

[bluearmy]

12 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Given that models often overestimate the north/east progression of Atlantic frontal systems up against blocking high pressure, it is probably better that they are showing things a little too north for the majority of the U.K. population this far out. If they were currently showing things just perfect at this range, it’d be more likely but far from guaranteed that fronts stay south/west of the U.K. come the time.

The point is that the blocking doesnt get established nw before the Atlantic heads in. The block splits se/nw rather than pushing more nw ahead of the trough. Hence it doesn’t have to slide …..

 

4 minutes ago, Mair Snaw said:

Very confusing in here this morning.. i cant work out if a trend north being bad for the south is a bad thing for those of us in the north?? Is Scotland in the firing line in this set up??

As always when cold is coming it turns very personal in here and people seem to get very short fused.

We always get these wobbles when cold and snaw is in the offering.. 

always bad imo - if the south is cold and snowy then the north will be aswell at some point if not all the time! 

[MattStoke]

That doesn’t change that things can still end up further south, as they often do.

[Staffmoorlands]

Great charts this morning with a continued wintry outlook. Snow risk appears to be further north but looks good for those living north of the M4.

Best Christmas setup since 2010