Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

 Share
Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please remember this is a model based discussion - some chat is ok, but a weather model related theme should run throughout.

The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family friendly

For a less frenetic look at the models head over to the alternate model discussion. 

Recommended Posts

mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Such a poor GFS run out to D10

image.thumb.png.7d0bb8f592a8fed623017a99b839ad36.png

Ensembles out to D5 have trended poorer too

The GFS op has snow falling somewhere on these islands from Christmas Eve right through to day 10, including a white Christmas for many. So when you say poor it's actually great for me.

In any case  it's the GFS. So, likely wrong.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted

Laughable differences between gfs and ukmo in the more reliable timeframe.If ECM follows UKMO then another gfs run can be binned,its been woeful over the current situation and how the low interacts with blocking high.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)

WOW, still going too!! Obviously unlikely but nice to see 

827EB5A0-A6F9-4C07-9D93-971AB72FB2A9.png
 

50cm would do

52A8740C-108E-4F58-B276-3B4A680FC208.png

Edited by Ali1977
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)

Actually the GFS ENS are pretty good for Xmas day - colder than the Op down south so the Op will be a mild outlier I think . GEM and UKMO Therefore more likely - ECM will settle it - until the next run

CEBB3DE7-F9E1-4377-A3E5-D1D161DFFBD8.png

D9A0D329-D29A-4DA2-B7A1-131BF0A27313.png

Edited by Ali1977
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Best run of the season for me the gem, absolutely spectacular.

240

gemnh-0-240 (22).png

gemnh-1-240 (7).png

What sets it apart from the GFS is that it regenerates the Greenland blocking rather than losing the signal. The GFS is a poor run because there is no longevity, the blocking is lost.

I pray that the GEM solution is the way forward.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Kentspur Accomplished

Kentspur

Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
Posted
1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Best run of the season for me the gem, absolutely spectacular.

240

gemnh-0-240 (22).png

gemnh-1-240 (7).png

Yep nationwide snow except Cornish coasts! Not seen this since 2010! If it comes off snow for nearly all of us. Just takes longer for us in southern most counties to get in on the act

Screenshot_20211219-045841_Samsung Internet.jpg

gem-0-180.png

gem-1-186.png

gem-1-216.png

gem-0-198.png

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)

GEFS mean for Boxing Day, great run and just as good as the very good 18z  

F4CEF025-6C77-4DB4-9ACC-026E8DAA14A7.png

2352CAEF-402C-4682-96EA-1C5442BFAB7A.png

Edited by Ali1977
  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted
3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

What sets it apart from the GFS is that it regenerates the Greenland blocking rather than losing the signal. The GFS is a poor run because there is no longevity, the blocking is lost.

I pray that the GEM solution is the way forward.

If ECM is similar at 120/144 I think we can raise confidence to 60-70%, but like you say the consistency has been poor from all models recently, especially the GFS and ukmo

I think the GFS is reacting to its forecast of going into mjo 8 too fast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

GEFS mean for Boxing Day, great run and just as good as the very good 18z  

F4CEF025-6C77-4DB4-9ACC-026E8DAA14A7.png

2352CAEF-402C-4682-96EA-1C5442BFAB7A.png

Not quite as good.

This is the 18z-

image.thumb.png.3cf3cdcdad779a424d3739a03966c8b6.png

Notice the better placed blocking around Greenland, stronger too.

Now the 0z-

image.thumb.png.de02bbceaa8b04870a23064722d0c1ee.png

Blocking signal muted slightly and pushed further NW. We need it further SE. There's literally no margin for error with this suite.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

GEFS control sums up what is wrong with this suite-

Blocking diminishes and the Atlantic is primed to come in (look at SW-NE tilt on the Atlantic low)

image.thumb.png.2e291d83627e97db34ec9b77af2092a6.png

I really want to see stronger blocking signal on future runs. A weakening and shift NW is not one we want to see continue.

Edited by CreweCold
Link to comment
Share on other sites
swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

Think the gem looks pretty solid tbh but as cc said not the best gfs on the oz. Ukmo looks OK but could be better. Hopefully uptick from now in

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Why are people not happy with the UKMO looks brilliant to me,cold air already in place early Xmas day.isn't that what people want?

Wondering the same. Cannot see anything bad about it.

ECM looks further north than it’s previous run meanwhile. Hmm.

Edit: ECM does though disrupt the well and shunt the cold air southward by Christmas Eve. Phew!

Edited by MattStoke
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

T96 all 3. This is where they differ. 

B7260692-1D91-491E-98AD-62F5A1197AFA.png

93A0047A-D650-47A7-BF1C-E9B1233C7AA6.gif

83734C69-733C-4444-AA0D-96797D2F8213.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted
1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Wondering the same. Cannot see anything bad about it.

ECM looks further north meanwhile. Hmm.

The ECM yesterday was an outlier for pushing the cold fully south by Christmas Eve. However todays day 5 is pretty close to the UKMO.

image.thumb.gif.85f4a259f777992c2957045064a403be.gif
 

UKMO

image.thumb.gif.d681a8a8238281506cabb20979c5592e.gif
 

Hopefully the cold air will also be established by Christmas Day.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

T120 and the difference becomes noticeable. 12z will sort this. At this range I would not go against ecm and Ukmo.

076F520A-42FA-433A-8174-ADCA2F4EDE59.png

5A4C3531-A354-47ED-B960-431CE17C1197.gif

10D5EC1C-7DC2-4A90-A5FD-89BC35FC95A2.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...