Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[feb1991blizzard]

16 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I’ve never believed anything other than a SSW will get us over the wintry line after the New Year.

speaking of which.

[Man With Beard]

GFS is 10mb deeper on the Atlantic low by D3/D4 than the UKMO and GEM - very typical of the GFS, which is why it is often a little too progressive by D5/D6.

I'd expect the ECM to be more like UKMO/GEM later, going by the clusters this morning.

(Note: this is not a guarantee of snow!!)

Edited December 19, 2021 by Man With Beard

[Jeremy Shockey]

 

UKMO 12z 168 hrs chart for Boxing Day is still very good indeed ( as was the 144 chart for Christmas Day) 

 

[weathercold]

5 minutes ago, Don said:

It could all change again tomorrow though?

Possibly, but we need a fast turnaround especially for those in the south. 
still time but we are reaching last chance saloon here I think 

[MattStoke]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

speaking of which.

I’m no strat expert but, that looks like a displacement which rarely delivers cold to the U.K. particularly if the warming is over the Eurasian side.

[DOdo]

Still remains uncertain at this stage, Met Eireanm put Rain and Showers for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day but they still havent rulled out snow. So nothing is in stone as yet!!

[iowpompeylee]

2 minutes ago, weathercold said:

Possibly, but we need a fast turnaround especially for those in the south. 
still time but we are reaching last chance saloon here I think 

I think the 12z Ukmo for the south isn’t that bad. Gives us all easterlies by Xmas day night! I will take that 

[Ruzzi]

7 minutes ago, weathercold said:

Possibly, but we need a fast turnaround especially for those in the south. 
still time but we are reaching last chance saloon here I think 

Last chance saloon for what? 

 

[mountsbaysnow]

Well Darren Bett hasn't got a scoobie regarding xmas.

Edited December 19, 2021 by mountsbaysnow

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, Ruzzi said:

Last chance saloon for what? 

 

If people think this may be our last and only chance for snow and cold.. I swear

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, iowpompeylee said:

I think the 12z Ukmo for the south isn’t that bad. Gives us all easterlies by Xmas day night! I will take that 

For sure I’ve seen worse charts for crimbo day…BANK! …isn’t this fun?… ..for sure it’s more fun than watching Spursy v Liverpool!   

 

Edited December 19, 2021 by jon snow

[phil b]

Just watched Countryfile weather for the week, the Pro's haven't got a clue about Christmas Day either!

[Updated_Weather]

2 minutes ago, phil b said:

Just watched Countryfile weather for the week, the Pro's haven't got a clue about Christmas Day either!

The models don’t so the pros or amateurs deffo won’t!

[bluearmy]

This is fun comparing gefs and geps mean surface temp anoms  at T246

                

[ANYWEATHER]

13 minutes ago, weathercold said:

Possibly, but we need a fast turnaround especially for those in the south. 
still time but we are reaching last chance saloon here I think 

As been posted on here milions of times....... computer models will flip and flop more times than a laughing Dolphin , the cold and snow is coming, we are this year on a cusp of something very special for you Winter lovers....

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, phil b said:

Just watched Countryfile weather for the week, the Pro's haven't got a clue about Christmas Day either!

Yet in here people seem to know what will happen based off one of the poorest performing models in these situations.

[iowpompeylee]

7 minutes ago, saintkip said:

Always a bad smell in Southampton from an easterly

You’d take it this time though.

[Updated_Weather]

Update from Matt Hugo! 
- Got to admit this has to be up there with the most crazy set of synoptics and uncertainty in a long time. That spread is crazy! GFS Det yet another outlier but supported while the colder solutions have increased as well. Big EC on the way-

[weathercold]

11 minutes ago, Ruzzi said:

Last chance saloon for what? 

 

Wintery weather over Xmas day/Boxing Day 

[AWD]

1 minute ago, Updated_Weather said:

Update from Matt Hugo! 
- Got to admit this has to be up there with the most crazy set of synoptics and uncertainty in a long time. That spread is crazy! GFS Det yet another outlier but supported while the colder solutions have increased as well. Big EC on the way-

That doesn't make sense.

How can it be an outlier and supported?

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, AWD said:

That doesn't make sense.

How can it be an outlier and supported?

supported by other members i guess..

[TSNWK]

13 minutes ago, mountsbaysnow said:

Well Darren Bett hasn't got a scoobie regarding xmas.

Haha.. biggest plus of the day.. if mr ALIWBM is unsure then we are in with a decent chance… 

[TSNWK]

Well it’s quiet anyone seen @Griff recently… 

[Battleground Snow]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

This is fun comparing gefs and geps mean surface temp anoms  at T246

                

The control and mean were colder than the GEM op if that makes anyone in the South feel better about Xmas day

[swfc]

Man alive and strap my backhaven't been on for 5 hours and folk seem not happy and chaotic. Run to run variation still seems to be bringing panic. IF EC shows a epic run "it may or not" just comment on what you see. Saves a lot of bickering wheh folk over speculate, bin it, its wrong?, next run etc. I think it will be  a few days yet before low pressure positiong, 850s and longevity of any potential cold spell is sorted. Great model watching and potential for a great Christmas week weather wise. Enjoy uto

Edited December 19, 2021 by swfc