Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[TanHillWeather]

Pfft, only 1000ft? That’s pretty much sea level compared to here.

Latest GEFS for Yorkshire. Looking like a few days with snow chances after Xmas.

[Sweatyman]

8 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

That sounds a big switch from yesterday I think. When charts as reported by you were showing artic high and cold air?

waste of time then. what's to say this ones right !!

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

But that’s different from individual flakes 700ft away!

Kasim's been to Specsavers!

[Battleground Snow]

11 minutes ago, chapmanslade said:

 

Did either of you read @Cold Winter Night post above?

Posted at the same time so didn't no, but I'd disagree they haven't been flipping at short range, and other then the icon  has been the last to resolve the low interaction with the jet stream,

It's the reason why people like metcast have been so despondent when the EPS have all been showing 7-10 degrees in the South for Xmas  day and boxing day.

We could now be looking at highs of 3-5 for the south, a pretty big shift in my opinion

Edited December 21, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[ryanoroo]

3 minutes ago, TanHillWeather said:

Pfft, only 1000ft? That’s pretty much sea level compared to here.

Latest GEFS for Yorkshire. Looking like a few days with snow chances after Xmas.

Precipitation spikes look pretty good for Xmas day too @TanHillWeather I’m in Glasshouses near Pateley Bridge 

[sheikhy]

Oh yeh and to add the ecm could still be correct of course!!

[Polar Maritime]

13 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Even more so here as there are prominences of 1000ft in places. Where you are is flat in comparison.

I'm just over 1000ft here at my location with many hills up to the Moors behind me.

[sheikhy]

Almost no support with those mild humps for my area anyway!!might have picked up sumin new though so gota be careful....

 

[Mark Smithy]

Crikey! Those 6z ensembles are really good.

This really isn't over ...

[Methuselah]

If the GEFS ensembles are right (Don't worry. They're not!) our long spell of cold might have shrivelled to only 48-hours!

    

[tight isobar]

Huh - interpretive- of view!. Although some claim of “Bartlett high” scenario,geo potentially its  telling- or as now Xmas sargas not! I’ve taken a few snaps @ GEFS / EPS- to highlight foremost, the open book calander of pole shenanigans!.. block formations are now- and Cont to be worthy of note!. Raw operations and indeed layer model sync are still - as b4- in conflict/ confusion- the Nina pamphlet is also now 1 to untangle, as wide basin Pacific logs are rubbing against each other!.. so momentum will find its own drive in way of looking for an abstract way to resolve!. You’re over tripped looking (in anyway) large Europe height graphics, are to be taken lightly to say the very least. Polar spills will always look for land mass accomplish - and overlook the actual fruition slots!, we’ll see this once everything starts relaxing through the intake of dynamic!. There will be no @ base point Bartlett overide.. and even in raw modelling.. very soon it will become apparent that any height deployment will likely land @ the Scandinavia/ or Russian peninsula!. Some eye watering Synoptics await!.. we are just in the dark alley way of getting to the park atm!@ snaps for reference of spoken

[mulzy]

Slightly disappointing news in that the MOGREPS have trended milder on the latest run (at least for the south).

[Battleground Snow]

We now have the GFS MJO forecast back and it's a big change, phase 7 is here to stay for the foreseeable future.

I have seen the American Mets getting very frustrated with the this, and mentioning delays, as it is busting their mjo 8 cold USA pattern for jan

The amplitude relaxed in the last few days which caused the greenland heights to temporarily drain and become wedges, 

This I suppose could be seen as a positive to snow chances, as it allowed for sliders, instead of a colder drier theme, although, a convective eastlerly would have been superb.

I was in the opinion, the same as @Met4Cast that we would see a more mobile pattern in late January, as the MJO fell into cod, or phase 1, but it's really moving slow. ( More chance for the trop to bust the strat too)

finally I think a lot of winter forecasts have been busted by a east Pacific la Nina event instead of a central based one. Including the met office

 

Edited December 21, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Huh - interpretive- of view!. Although some claim of “Bartlett high” scenario,geo potentially its  telling- or as now Xmas sargas not! I’ve taken a few snaps @ GEFS / EPS- to highlight foremost, the open book calander of pole shenanigans!.. block formations are now- and Cont to be worthy of note!. Raw operations and indeed layer model sync are still - as b4- in conflict/ confusion- the Nina pamphlet is also now 1 to untangle, as wide basin Pacific logs are rubbing against each other!.. so momentum will find its own drive in way of looking for an abstract way to resolve!. You’re over tripped looking (in anyway) large Europe height graphics, are to be taken lightly to say the very least. Polar spills will always look for land mass accomplish - and overlook the actual fruition slots!, we’ll see this once everything starts relaxing through the intake of dynamic!. There will be no @ base point Bartlett overide.. and even in raw modelling.. very soon it will become apparent that any height deployment will likely land @ the Scandinavia/ or Russian peninsula!. Some eye watering Synoptics await!.. we are just in the dark alley way of getting to the park atm!@ snaps for reference of spoken

Not even a session on Wikipedia and languages of the Dark ages has been able to give me a translation of this post tight.

Your obviously unique mate  

[mushymanrob]

37 minutes ago, SteveB said:

Whaaat! Didn't want to here that Mushy. 

Dont worry, we still have a huge Arctic high, a weak east based La Nina, and eQBO, MJO phase 7 possibly 8, there are a lot of pointers suggesting a colder winter is more likely, and remember, several snowy winters had milder spells. Oh and we might get a SSW...
 

20 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

That sounds a big switch from yesterday I think. When charts as reported by you were showing artic high and cold air?

Nope..... 2 days ago i posted the 6-10 day chart which covers the Christmas / end of December mean. They did suggest Arctic air but only for a few days. This chart is the latest 8-14 day chart covering the end of the year/early Jan..

So over the last few days these charts showed a cold spell starting around Christmas day followed by a mild spell in time for the new year. they have been totally consistent with a smooth evolution between the two charts/outcomes.

[camturbo]

6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Huh - interpretive- of view!. Although some claim of “Bartlett high” scenario,geo potentially its  telling- or as now Xmas sargas not! I’ve taken a few snaps @ GEFS / EPS- to highlight foremost, the open book calander of pole shenanigans!.. block formations are now- and Cont to be worthy of note!. Raw operations and indeed layer model sync are still - as b4- in conflict/ confusion- the Nina pamphlet is also now 1 to untangle, as wide basin Pacific logs are rubbing against each other!.. so momentum will find its own drive in way of looking for an abstract way to resolve!. You’re over tripped looking (in anyway) large Europe height graphics, are to be taken lightly to say the very least. Polar spills will always look for land mass accomplish - and overlook the actual fruition slots!, we’ll see this once everything starts relaxing through the intake of dynamic!. There will be no @ base point Bartlett overide.. and even in raw modelling.. very soon it will become apparent that any height deployment will likely land @ the Scandinavia/ or Russian peninsula!. Some eye watering Synoptics await!.. we are just in the dark alley way of getting to the park atm!@ snaps for reference of spoken

I like reading your interpretations of what the models show but what the hell does it mean for a numpty like me.

[MattStoke]

17 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Oh yeh and to add the ecm could still be correct of course!!

The ECM op has though trended at least a bit towards the other models from seeing the 6z chart that was posted.

[NewEra21]

6 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Slightly disappointing news in that the MOGREPS have trended milder on the latest run (at least for the south).

Seems like these flip almost every run, guess it just shows the uncertainty still. It's crazy really!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Today is a pendulum day - tomorrow will be an envelope ……….  One of those small ones 

Btw, the drift on the gefs griceland heights edging se at midnight on Xmas eve is still not finished !  As evident on the ens mean comparison above, heights are generally that little bit higher, run by run as the euro upper ridge also extends a little further north ahead of the Atlantic trough. Until this movement stops we won’t have a landing point 

Tomorrow has been my model target day to tell us what we got for a while, I agree.  A further cold nudge from ECM this evening would be good to get to the scenario tomorrow.  As there still is the chance of a nudge back from others at this stage

 

 

 

BFTP 

[tight isobar]

6 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

We now have the GFS MJO forecast back and it's a big change, phase 7 is here to stay for the foreseeable future.

I have seen the American Mets getting very frustrated with the this, and mentioning delays, as it is busting there mjo 8 cold USA pattern for jan

The amplitude relaxed in the last few days which caused the greenland heights to temporarily drain and become wedges, 

This I suppose could be seen as a positive to snow chances, as it allowed for sliders, instead of a colder drier theme, although, a convective eastlerly would have been superb.

I was in the opinion, the same as @Met4Cast that we would see a more mobile pattern in late January, as the MJO fell into cod, or phase 1, but it's really moving slow. ( More chance for the trop to bust the strat too)

finally I think a lot of winter forecasts have been busted by a east Pacific la Nina event instead of a central based one. Including the met office

 

Far to much emphasis on the orbital MJO!!- there are factors that squeeze the signals! The Americans such as Cohen- will punt for madden julien oscillating syncs in a land mass American scale! 

[keithlucky]

Fascinating weather phenomenon is about to hit the UK,its called a Tropause polar votex which is moving down from the Arctic. 

[swfc]

7 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Not even a session on Wikipedia and languages of the Dark ages has been able to give me a translation of this post tight.

Your obviously unique mate  

He's a dude matt and knows his onions but I've kind of got a take on it, I think

[TSNWK]

12 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Slightly disappointing news in that the MOGREPS have trended milder on the latest run (at least for the south).

Thats a shame... I guess thats another 12 hours of 9c on Christmas day on my metoffice app..

[ICE COLD]

Always here MOGREPS are the best tool the met use . Well there just a useless as every other model tool . Spaghetti junction again on the 6z run

[Midlander]

MOGREPS 06Z Headline: Trended milder
 

Yesterday average for the 2 reading's in the Midlands (Time= 25th 15Z) were:
0Z Average temp 5.5*C

06Z Average temp 6.02*C

12Z Average temp 3.81*C

Today's 06Z average temp 5.5*C

Edited December 21, 2021 by Midlander