Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Always here MOGREPS are the best tool the met use . Well there just a useless as every other model tool . Spaghetti junction again on the 6z run

Trended colder on the 0z but look milder again on the 6z. Eugh.

Edited December 21, 2021 by MattStoke

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Always here MOGREPS are the best tool the met use . Well there just a useless as every other model tool . Spaghetti junction again on the 6z run

Still is very cold options when viewing the stamps, the consistency is frustrating tho

[NewEra21]

6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Always here MOGREPS are the best tool the met use . Well there just a useless as every other model tool . Spaghetti junction again on the 6z run

The one main concern is that the control looks like it's following a pretty similar path to the 06z GFS Op run.

Edited December 21, 2021 by NewEra21

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Always here MOGREPS are the best tool the met use . Well there just a useless as every other model tool . Spaghetti junction again on the 6z run

Control had gone from 0 to 6 on boxing Day for London..  annoying and adds to tension as we enter 12z suite..

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Still is very cold options when viewing the stamps, the consistency is frustrating tho

15 please with a cherry on top

[Premiere Neige]

13 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Not even a session on Wikipedia and languages of the Dark ages has been able to give me a translation of this post tight.

Your obviously unique mate  

He's saying more chances for cold in the near future, in a nutshell...... (I think)

[Beanz]

14 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Not even a session on Wikipedia and languages of the Dark ages has been able to give me a translation of this post tight.

Your obviously unique mate  

Try this..

 

[Uncertainty]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

We now have the GFS MJO forecast back and it's a big change, phase 7 is here to stay for the foreseeable future.

I have seen the American Mets getting very frustrated with the this, and mentioning delays, as it is busting there mjo 8 cold USA pattern for jan

The amplitude relaxed in the last few days which caused the greenland heights to temporarily drain and become wedges, 

This I suppose could be seen as a positive to snow chances, as it allowed for sliders, instead of a colder drier theme, although, a convective eastlerly would have been superb.

I was in the opinion, the same as @Met4Cast that we would see a more mobile pattern in late January, as the MJO fell into cod, or phase 1, but it's really moving slow. ( More chance for the trop to bust the strat too)

finally I think a lot of winter forecasts have been busted by a east Pacific la Nina event instead of a central based one. Including the met office

 

Pretty sure that’s why there’s significant strat warmings on many of the GEFS members now. Too early to call it, but these slow moving west pacific MJO events during La Niña are strongly correlated to strat disruption. And this is turning out to be an exceptionally slow event. 
 

I won’t post individual perturbations (not my thing) but I’ve been following it, there’s a small but growing signal and it’s also in the GEPS too.

The CFS members (including the BC) are torn between PV of doom V2: The PV strikes back) and a significant weakening. 
 

 

Nothing drastic either way from the 0z GEFS members but the 6z enhanced the warming signal late on 

6z mean

Not bad for a mean chart, surf zone for now but given the warmings on some members I think some serious heat would be about to enter the pole from there.

Early days this and not a forecast hence why it’s in the hunt thread and not the strat one. But a few more days of this and confirmation of the protracted stay in P7 and I imagine many more folk will be paying attention…

Im seeing this day 10 Iberian ridge too but personally I’m not seeing it there for the whole of the winter!

[sheikhy]

6 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Still is very cold options when viewing the stamps, the consistency is frustrating tho

Just goes to show though even though its mogreps the fact that it changes every run just shows that its not as good as its made out to be!!!

[Wingman Blue]

For those prognosticating about the sweet spot in all this, statements like ‘only good in the north’, or ‘once again, nothing for the south’ are no help whatsoever!

Please be more specific, north of X, a line between Y and Z would be a help, even the proverbial ‘north of the M4’ would be a help, otherwise it’s like the incredibly vague seer in Life of Brian, “…and there’l come a time when things happen, and lots of other things too…”

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

6 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

He's saying more chances for cold in the near future, in a nutshell...... (I think)

I know what he's saying PN..Just a little banter...I for one love his style.

A slight downgrade from mogreps but tbh this one is flip flopping around just as much as the others currently...so we still may not be sorted just yet.

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I know what he's saying PN..Just a little banter...I for one love his style.

A slight downgrade from mogreps but tbh this one is flip flopping around just as much as the others currently...so we still may not be sorted just yet.

Still looks good for us in the midlands mate!!!!aint gona complain from a selfish perspective!!!

[LetItSnow!]

I have a feeling we might not know what's happening until the 23rd... even Christmas Eve! Feels like this chase has been going on for years!

[Premiere Neige]

2 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I know what he's saying PN..Just a little banter...I for one love his style.

A slight downgrade from mogreps but tbh this one is flip flopping around just as much as the others currently...so we still may not be sorted just yet.

So much chaos within the models it's not inconceivable that it could be Friday before this saga is resolved!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Still looks good for us in the midlands mate!!!!aint gona complain from a selfish perspective!!!

I expect nothing less from you good man

[AltonMatthew]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Still looks good for us in the midlands mate!!!!aint gona complain from a selfish perspective!!!

Are we talking good in the Mids xmas day or in the period as a whole though. 

 

The models remain volatile in terms of a lack of consistency regarding a period which is not that far away. I cant be the only one seeking some clarity from the model suites now.

[keithlucky]

8 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

Pretty sure that’s why there’s significant strat warmings on many of the GEFS members now. Too early to call it, but these slow moving west pacific MJO events during La Niña are strongly correlated to strat disruption. And this is turning out to be an exceptionally slow event. 
 

I won’t post individual perturbations (not my thing) but I’ve been following it, there’s a small but growing signal and it’s also in the GEPS too.

The CFS members (including the BC) are torn between PV of doom V2: The PV strikes back) and a significant weakening. 
 

 

Nothing drastic either way from the 0z GEFS members but the 6z enhanced the warming signal late on 

6z mean

Not bad for a mean chart, surf zone for now but given the warmings on some members I think some serious heat would be about to enter the pole from there.

Early days this and not a forecast hence why it’s in the hunt thread and not the strat one. But a few more days of this and confirmation of the protracted stay in P7 and I imagine many more folk will be paying attention…

Im seeing this day 10 Iberian ridge too but personally I’m not seeing it there for the whole of the winter!

Mentioned  earlier its called tropause polar votex a rare polar votex.

[Ben M]

Someone's hacked all the models and is messing with us, there's just no other explanation at this point it's beyond ridiculous 

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, Ben M said:

Someone's hacked all the models and is messing with us, there's just no other explanation at this point it's beyond ridiculous 

It is madness  BBC just mentioned a risk of a haboob 

[lawrenk]

41 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Huh - interpretive- of view!. Although some claim of “Bartlett high” scenario,geo potentially its  telling- or as now Xmas sargas not! I’ve taken a few snaps @ GEFS / EPS- to highlight foremost, the open book calander of pole shenanigans!.. block formations are now- and Cont to be worthy of note!. Raw operations and indeed layer model sync are still - as b4- in conflict/ confusion- the Nina pamphlet is also now 1 to untangle, as wide basin Pacific logs are rubbing against each other!.. so momentum will find its own drive in way of looking for an abstract way to resolve!. You’re over tripped looking (in anyway) large Europe height graphics, are to be taken lightly to say the very least. Polar spills will always look for land mass accomplish - and overlook the actual fruition slots!, we’ll see this once everything starts relaxing through the intake of dynamic!. There will be no @ base point Bartlett overide.. and even in raw modelling.. very soon it will become apparent that any height deployment will likely land @ the Scandinavia/ or Russian peninsula!. Some eye watering Synoptics await!.. we are just in the dark alley way of getting to the park atm!@ snaps for reference of spoken

Mark E Smith lyrics at their finest!

[jvenge]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Just goes to show though even though its mogreps the fact that it changes every run just shows that its not as good as its made out to be!!!

Isn't that the general idea of mogreps? Runs so often and updates the metoffice forecast many times per day? Metoffice forecasts seem to update every two hours and they do indeed change, so I assume that changing output can only be from mogreps, unless someone else knows of something else they use?

But anyway, surely it is a good thing they run so often and can change based on what they see.

[Phil Blake]

The mogreps that people keep posting. I'm gathering it's the freely available one and run at a lower resolution as the one the met office use? 

[Sweatyman]

3 minutes ago, lawrenk said:

Mark E Smith lyrics at their finest!

Absolutely!  He would've been proud of that

[NewEra21]

16 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

I have a feeling we might not know what's happening until the 23rd... even Christmas Eve! Feels like this chase has been going on for years!

Wouldn't be a surprise if it just comes down to radar watching on the day, just to see how far north/south the low actually pushes.

[Nick2373]

12 minutes ago, weirpig said:

It is madness  BBC just mentioned a risk of a haboob 

haboob, strong wind that occurs primarily along the southern edges of the Sahara in Sudan and is associated with large sandstorms and dust storms and may be accompanied by thunderstorms.