Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[The Eagle]

1 minute ago, Kentish Snowman in Yorks said:

My comment was tongue in cheek.  In reality I suspect its verification stats are no better if not worse than the major models.  I'm sure it has its "days in the sun" but I don't think I will be ditching all the other output just yet!

For greater forecast accuracy we should just back whichever model shows the worst outcome for cold! 

Not saying anyone should ditch anything, just take all data in to account. 

[supernova]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

And the award for the least worst model goes to ……

@johnholmes ! Cos even with all our computing advances, for now at least you can’t beat experience and human intervention, as the MetO proves time and time again. Still not perfect (not meaning you John obvs), but once again the models have played us beautifully because in the end the weather is a law unto itself which is why, in truth, we all find it so fascinating.

Edited December 22, 2021 by supernova

[Stu_London]

Amazing how much 'groupthink' one measly weather related internet forum can create.

I would echo what others have said about cross model and ensemble agreement - whilst they do not exist there is uncertainty, and where there is uncertainty on most occasions our shores will end up on the other side of what most in this thread are looking for. 

Will the forum learn collectively from this experience?

You would hope so, but past experiences suggests not.

 

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

the ECM mean at 120 looks quite a bit better then the OP,at least it looked that way for a moment...the ens are absolute garbage!

Edited December 22, 2021 by Lukesluckybunch
adding text

[The Eagle]

6 minutes ago, supernova said:

Quite the bust for cold this morning and anyone that says I told you so, frankly, can do one

Why? Some of us knew it was a bust long before. Which means it's not a bust to us. 

Edited December 22, 2021 by The Eagle

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

1 minute ago, The Eagle said:

Not saying anyone should ditch anything, just take all data in to account. 

Yes we should but we all get sucked in by the thrill of the chase on occasions.  Me you and any number of the other told you so'ers are not immune to it.

On that note I'm off to find a day 10 cold chart to hang my hat on! 

[IDO]

I have been keeping my powder dry as I hate wedges as they are so unpredictable and unreliable that it is almost chaos when modelling. 

Anyway onto the next chase. When we get an abrupt pattern change, the models tend to over do those charts so hopefully the GFS and EC FI runs are not going to be as bad (for cold) as they show on the 0Z; London does not get negative uppers until D15 on the GFS op!!! Though IMBY was never looking that exciting. 

I would suggest this brief bridge to cold like the late Nov one will be followed by circa 5-7 days of unsettled westerly weather and then the Azores building north again. A repeating pattern is the first port of call as we regroup from this missed opportunity. 

[snowstorm27x]

4 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

Once again it's earned it. It should be top of the list but for whatever reason here...a trick is being missed.

I wouldn't give it to much credit. It was still flip flopping about like a dodgy sandal on a beach. The problem was the Nirvana charts that were the Dream scenario and we all dare to dream. All models at times have backed away wich always tells me they are struggling with the synoptics and final evolution. And like clockwork get it in the 72hrs window and shortwaves show up like a damm conga. Positive this morning is things can only get better.

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well well well.  Wednesday was my target day for model agreement re Xmas.  What a disaster.  The flip is astonishing 

 

BFTP

[SteveB]

39 minutes ago, Snowboy111 said:

Well that’s the final nail in the coffin!! Gonna be some miserable people on here today. 20 years of being on here I’ve learnt a few things along the way. 
 

1. Never get too excited until t48

2. Everyone is an amateur on here, nothing should be taken as gospel.

3. If you’re offended by number 2, then it’s cause the weather is the weather and it’ll do whatever it wants to do not what you hope or think it’ll do ! I’ve seen enough ‘pros’ come and go on this site, many with their tails between their legs. It’s one thing to discuss outcomes and it’s another to say ‘dead cert it’ll happen’ and then get your back up when it goes wrong ! The ‘bin it’ attitude needs to change  

4. The various models are still really quite poor when it comes to cold. Why there are so many it just seems pointless. Especially as half get written off as fodder as soon as the 6 hour update comes out. Should be 2/3 max. Waste of money. 
 

5. Global warming is killing history. People reference ‘47 an ‘63. Forget it. We’ll never get a repeat of those as the climate has massively shifted in the last 10/15 years alone. 
 

Today will hurt but it’s nothing new. I don’t want knife edge stuff, I want a scandi high and med low. That’s our best and most reasonable chance for cold and snow

I think that perfectly sums everything up nicely. This should be pinned as a reminder the next time a fantasy cold spell is modelled.

[The Eagle]

2 minutes ago, snowstorm27x said:

It was still flip flopping about like a dodgy sandal on a beach. 

 

 

But it wasn't. Sure, there were changes around the edges but it was rock solid throughout otherwise. 

[Ali1977]

EC op vs mean at 120 - mean May still have some snowy ENS but it’ll be 1 or 2 that’s all!! 

Edited December 22, 2021 by Ali1977

[goosey007]

Well ECM still the master then ......gutting conclusion so it seems....it is what it is. Snowy Christmas periods just don't happen in the majority of the UK but i guess its the hope that kills you. Been well and truly led down the garden path.....Time for a break. Take care and merry Christmas All 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Take note - NOTHING is 'nailed on'

 

[nick sussex]

NCEP discussion saying there’s a large degree of uncertainty over the eastern USA for this weekend . This impacts the troughing in the Atlantic to the west of the UK  so before the backslapping and I told you so comments become even more irritating can those doing this just muzzle it to this evening !

When you get a sudden shift it’s best to wait for another run to ensure the models haven’t over reacted .

[The Eagle]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

EC op vs mean at 120 - mean May still have some snowy ENS but it’ll be 1 or 2 that’s all!! 

It's over. It really is. Don't put yourself through it again 

[Malarky]

Just now, nick sussex said:

NCEP discussion saying there’s a large degree of uncertainty over the eastern USA for this weekend . This impacts the troughing in the Atlantic to the west of the UK  so before the backslapping and I told you so comments become even more irritating can those doing this just muzzle it to this evening !

When you get a sudden shift it’s best to wait for another run to ensure the models haven’t over reacted .

Thanks for the sensible analysis and insights as usual, Nick.

 

It’s always a shame to see posts that are quite blatantly written to antagonise or upset.

Fortunately I don’t see many of them because of the wonderful ignore feature.

[Sceptical]

14 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

Not saying anyone should ditch anything, just take all data in to account. 

Absolutely!

Especially a post like this which was swiftly dismissed last night.

 

[Coxxy657]

1 hour ago, Rayth said:

What a difference a day makes , unbelievable 

thats not even a day lol, thats 6 hrs isnt it ?? complete flip in 6 hrs lol

[Nick2373]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

NCEP discussion saying there’s a large degree of uncertainty over the eastern USA for this weekend . This impacts the troughing in the Atlantic to the west of the UK  so before the backslapping and I told you so comments become even more irritating can those doing this just muzzle it to this evening !

When you get a sudden shift it’s best to wait for another run to ensure the models haven’t over reacted .

Spot on as I elude to in a early post, usually when the models do this it’s indicative of a pattern change. Now it could go ether way. 

[cyclonic happiness]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

NCEP discussion saying there’s a large degree of uncertainty over the eastern USA for this weekend . This impacts the troughing in the Atlantic to the west of the UK  so before the backslapping and I told you so comments become even more irritating can those doing this just muzzle it to this evening !

When you get a sudden shift it’s best to wait for another run to ensure the models haven’t over reacted .

Yep, FI is at 24hrs out atm.  There is no super mild weather suggested in the Meto update either, so something has gone a bit squiffy.

I'll sit on the fence until maybe the 12z tomorrow and then just get drunk until new year

 

[Staffmoorlands]

Dreadful charts this morning folks. I really didn’t expect Marco Petagna from the Met Office to be correct with his warm up from the Azores tweet last night.

 

[Blessed Weather]

4 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

But it wasn't. Sure, there were changes around the edges but it was rock solid throughout otherwise. 

The ICON output on the 12z run on Sunday was pretty much in line what all the other models were showing for Xmas Day, so I'm not sure about your claims about the model "rock solid throughout" are fully justified?

[nick sussex]

The troughing to the west of the UK is impacted by any shortwave which tracks east from the USA and Canada . The depth of the shortwave and where it phases with that effects what happens over the UK.

With stronger heights to the n ne this wouldn’t be such an issue but the set up is very sensitive to small changes upstream .

It may well end up a disappointing festive period for coldies but give it one more run just to see .

 

[That ECM]

9 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

It's over. It really is. Don't put yourself through it again 

Of course we will put ourselves through it again, it’s what we do.