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Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please remember this is a model based discussion - some chat is ok, but a weather model related theme should run throughout.

The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family friendly

For a less frenetic look at the models head over to the alternate model discussion. 

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
2 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

What are we actually chasing? Can anyone remember? 

A white Xmas, but long gone here

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simon65 Rookie

simon65

Posted
  • Location: Linslade ,bedfordshire 331ft ASL
  • Location: Linslade ,bedfordshire 331ft ASL
Posted

Some people on here getting a tad heated ,soooo ,if you need a snow fix take a peek at this ,hope links are ok ?

 

 

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supernova Community Regular

supernova

Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
Posted
7 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

What are we actually chasing? Can anyone remember? 

No, but isn't it fun?!

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Is there more undercutting on gfs at 54 hours!!!

Looks better to me at T60

0A88C24F-A85C-4821-9D05-7F5379B2D54B.png

42C3F564-BCBE-4D66-B602-0C7078929ABA.png

Edited by Ali1977
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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
Just now, sheikhy said:

Is there more undercutting on gfs at 54 hours!!!

Maybe a smidge and the colder air although no further south has a bit more substance to it behind 0 line.. Enough to keep me viewing foe little while longer.,

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Snowmadsam Aficionado

Snowmadsam

Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Popular Post
Posted
Just now, sheikhy said:

Is there more undercutting on gfs at 54 hours!!!

Yes there is, heights clearly rising to the East at +54

also a side note, this place has been so vicious today, we all are here for similar reasons. No person be they ever so high should have to tolerate snide or abusive remarks. It’s almost time to have a few days off. 

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Is there more undercutting on gfs at 54 hours!!!

Yes Shaky,...goin under

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
Just now, Snowmadsam said:

Yes there is, heights clearly rising to the East at +54

also a side note, this place has been so vicious today, we all are here for similar reasons. No person be they ever so high should have to tolerate snide or abusive remarks. It’s almost time to have a few days off. 

Agree. It was awful this morning the worse I’ve seen it for many years…. I left for the day…

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

It’s a bit splitting hairs at T54, but here’s the pub run v 12z T60:

BFCD0165-1A8B-4827-BB5C-153C2CC201D3.thumb.jpeg.1d871b6d409dc6588024fd1ab2317aa0.jpeg56780130-C3DE-4B1E-8823-BB6F8F96B119.thumb.png.f1b94ad0ab34943db56bc93b2455f078.png

You can see that low A is a little bit deeper and low B is a little bit less deep, with the situation on the knife edge, this redistribution in the Atlantic could make the difference between low B sliding and not.

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Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It’s a bit splitting hairs at T54, but here’s the pub run v 12z T60:

BFCD0165-1A8B-4827-BB5C-153C2CC201D3.thumb.jpeg.1d871b6d409dc6588024fd1ab2317aa0.jpeg56780130-C3DE-4B1E-8823-BB6F8F96B119.thumb.png.f1b94ad0ab34943db56bc93b2455f078.png

You can see that low A is a little bit deeper and low B is a little bit less deep, with the situation on the knife edge, this redistribution in the Atlantic could make the difference between low B sliding and not.

Key point imo is that Azores runner is further south like ukmo 

Helps keep the sliding low from charging ne

Edited by Kasim Awan
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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

The first front turns to snow as it fizzles during the morning of Christmas day, there is a dusting over part of Norfolk, Cambridgeshire a little bit over the higher parts of northern England. Despite the figures over Scotland, most of this falls on Christmas Eve.

image.thumb.png.0aeaa113538d21dbe0efbdb891a6149f.png

Not much really and I doubt you could squeeze much more unless the cold air can dig in quicker. 

The second front will probably be of more interest as this will be more active at this point and will also collide with the cold air instead of having the cold end cutting into the front.

Out to day 4 - The GFS is a little better than the previous one for cold over Christmas though it probably needs to shift further to bring anything of real note.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

If it wasnt ridiculous before it is now!!!gfs continues the early upgrade!!

I just wonder if we can continue with incremental changes overnight, be interesting to see where the mean sits later .  Quite close to another borderline snow event here too, with a few small changes !! 

B8A28E40-94A7-4258-8682-7799695BA27D.png

859DC6D6-B5CF-4AF1-AC00-403C37EEAA40.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Snowmadsam Aficionado

Snowmadsam

Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
Posted
1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

Not far off something special.

gfs-0-102 (6).png

Indeed, a small slliideeeeee and a ton of opportunity emerges 

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Winter Hill Seasoned

Winter Hill

Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
Posted
1 minute ago, Had Worse said:

image.thumb.png.b7ae30959efd9163f903c8393ee19e0b.png

We just scrape under the precip 

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

Colder air tucking in behind this LP on the 27th, still rain but could turn - something to look at later or in the ENS - if the signal doesn’t disappear overnight that is!!

12D5E8A4-768A-4DB4-97C4-1F29A30557C1.png

53DE1A5F-C2B6-4F6E-BC52-34D01D3CFCB6.png

3B1A3BBF-D5B5-4336-9D8F-60EF1784FACF.png

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

Low heights anomaly a lot further SE into the BoB 

18z 114 vs 12z 120.

gfs-12-114.thumb.png.842fabfa06e0b5e167c658ce3fea35ae.pnggfs-12-120.thumb.png.603939871ba671f3f03425422700c211.png

huge correction south on the 850's thanks to the low clearing SE quicker

18z 132 vs 12z 138.

gfsnh-1-132.thumb.png.d7345c6745f1c96e289e16c8f73e4180.pnggfsnh-1-138.thumb.png.d69e6fd3928166fb325f19da801cd5a7.png

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