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Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please remember this is a model based discussion - some chat is ok, but a weather model related theme should run throughout.

The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family friendly

For a less frenetic look at the models head over to the alternate model discussion. 

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iowpompeylee Aficionado

iowpompeylee

Posted
  • Location: Shanklin, isle of wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and more snow
  • Location: Shanklin, isle of wight
Posted (edited)

Xmas forecast for the south wet and mild last week, wet and mild this week and wet and mild next week. The only consistent thing to come from these models! I’m looking into the new year now. Hats off to you guys though ????????

Edited by iowpompeylee
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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted
1 hour ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

The 'air' over the continent is not expected to get the mild air we might receive.

Look at the UKV graphs above. Colder air into the oncominng depression will re-invigorate it forming a discreet cell (in the Channel(?)), pulling colder northerlies in behind it.

MIA

 

Also the southerly is lowering due points and temp here in se Kent, although I haven't checked yet this evening, temps were suppressed all day, to spite the sun.

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

And now control undercuttin more into the continent at 54 hours!!

This obsession with the control run in here never ceases to amaze me, it isn’t an op run, it is a diagnostic for the ensemble suite.  Wonder if it is because at this time of night there aren’t many runs coming out…ARPEGE due to T60 imminently.  I’ve been musing why people don’t usually post this one, and have come to the conclusion it is because most people can’t spell it, I’ve seen APEGE, APERGE, APREEGE, and many more over the years.  Weird!

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Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted
5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

And now control undercuttin more into the continent at 54 hours!!

ptb 21 is the one we want!

spacer.png

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Had Worse Maestro

Had Worse

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
Posted

Snow around 250m and up on this run, maybe a few areas where it gets to 100m for a time before turning to rain.

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Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted
4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Massive difference at 138 for the better. Colder and I’m pondering if the heights to west will climb over us and flip into scandi..

image.thumb.png.8506a0a46d4bdfadba613cf0aa708e36.png

We really need that low out west to stall a bit more and it’d be game on for an easterly. 

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Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted
Just now, Mike Poole said:

This obsession with the control run in here never ceases to amaze me, it isn’t an op run, it is a diagnostic for the ensemble suite.  Wonder if it is because at this time of night there aren’t many runs coming out…ARPEGE due to T60 imminently.  I’ve been musing why people don’t usually post this one, and have come to the conclusion it is because most people can’t spell it, I’ve seen APEGE, APERGE, APREEGE, and many more over the years.  Weird!

The control run is the next best over the op

As you say diagnostic so acts to diagnose what support the op has

It is still valid output and atm I think this could be an occassion where more data is not neccessarily a good thing.

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

Anyway, ARPEGE 18z v pub run T60:

 

That’s as far as the run goes, but looks a lot more slidy to me!  Again note the differences at just T60.  Basically we want that two low system looking more like a penny farthing!

165FD7C4-64C1-4512-9DC2-6A6FEF358D56.thumb.jpeg.5bb5ea5f727a6077381632a4dfed40f2.jpeg58654F8E-7F32-472D-92DA-EE787218C1DD.thumb.jpeg.149304fcfe63b0f229da0cb3fee3d459.jpeg

Edit, and I’ve added the wedgeometer in black pen!  Much stronger on the ARPEGE.  

Edited by Mike Poole
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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

Still ridges in Azores high from 168 onwards but there is some brutal cold over the North Sea we can tsp into if things move back in our favour..

night.

 

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legritter Accomplished

legritter

Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
Posted
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

As anticipated GFS makes a move towards the UKMO model.

The FAX chart tonight might well be good ..

 

 

Hi , i think tonights Fax chart is already out for Monday 27th ,cheers . 

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

The synoptic evolution looks good on 18z GFS up to 144hrs, but it's a shame the colder air with T850s below -5C isn't already entrenched further south than northern England when the fronts move in from the SW over the weekend and early next week.

So what falls will be mostly rain away from hills of N England and N Wales. But the easterly surface flow won't be mild as the BBC temps for next 10 days make out. But wouldn't rule out a few snow surprises for lower elevations of the Midlands, southern N England and North Wales if cold and dry enough air can undercut from the northeast.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

As anticipated GFS makes a move towards the UKMO model.

The FAX chart tonight might well be good ..

 

 

They are out NWS

these are the latest 96-120.

1399082990_fax96s(1).thumb.gif.06a162b756f59214e370c6a5b5ec3419.gif1596079005_fax120s(1).thumb.gif.91db54976124e55654cf30f54636e79f.gif

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes, a swing towards cold tonight...

00z runs should go a long way to resolving xmas day and boxing day ...

Let's hope so, one way or the other, today has been a night mare, for now looks like cold might win out, at least up to the Midlands, may be even further.

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Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Anyway, ARPEGE 18z v pub run T60:

 

That’s as far as the run goes, but looks a lot more slidy to me!  Again note the differences at just T60.  Basically we want that two low system looking more like a penny farthing!

165FD7C4-64C1-4512-9DC2-6A6FEF358D56.thumb.jpeg.5bb5ea5f727a6077381632a4dfed40f2.jpeg58654F8E-7F32-472D-92DA-EE787218C1DD.thumb.jpeg.149304fcfe63b0f229da0cb3fee3d459.jpeg

Edit, and I’ve added the wedgeometer in black pen!  Much stronger on the ARPEGE.  

Notice the low digging into Portugal more on the 18z Mike?

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