Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

1 hour ago, A Frayed Knot said:

Don't bother chasing the charts. I stayed up to see the weather for the week ahead on BBC that use Meteo.. Mild and wet, some snow in Scotland on high elevation as for down here it's Dry and a damp squid. I'm sure someone is tweaking them charts to get your hopes up. I'm well puddled of but it what it is.. Until the next time of model hunting I bid you all farewell and goodnight. 

It maybe going mild and wet but I wouldn't put my house on a bbc forecast lol

[Kasim Awan]

3 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

Up ready for the (last chance its never going to happen why oh why always downgrades on us coldies) 00z gfs) . It can't upgrade can it ????.

Ps it's Xmas eve eve everybody. 

Last chance saloon

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

Last chance saloon

Yes definitely this morning @Kasim Awan good luck and merry Xmas pal.

[Kasim Awan]

Hopefully next time.

Night!

Edited December 23, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[Lukesluckybunch]

it was always fine margins in any case,its like that comedy show...they think its all over..it is now!

 

a quick rundown of the models: UKMO=poor gfs=poor icon=poor

Edited December 23, 2021 by Lukesluckybunch
rundowm of models

[Robin2012]

5 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

it was always fine margins in any case,its like that comedy show...they think its all over..it is now!

What’s all over?

xmas day snow, snow before new year? Winter? One liners that help nobody?? 

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Robin2012 said:

What’s all over?

xmas day snow, snow before new year? Winter? One liners that help nobody?? 

i thought it was obvious what we are talking here...anyways the hope of xmas day and boxing day cold and snow,the risk has diminished even further this morning

Edited December 23, 2021 by Lukesluckybunch
adding

[Robin2012]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

i thought it was obvious what we are talking here...anyways the hope of xmas day and boxing day cold and snow,the risk has diminished even further this morning

Thanks for the detailed analysis 

[mountain shadow]

44 minutes ago, Robin2012 said:

What’s all over?

xmas day snow, snow before new year? Winter? One liners that help nobody?? 

The risk of snow or even colder weather is gone away from parts of Scotland up until the middle of the first week of January based on the GFS and UKM ops runs.

 

[KTtom]

UKMO at 168- Its a long way to anything cold for the south from there...To be fair to the Met, they called this better than anyone, could have saved many hours of pain by just going off the app which has not deviated from 11-12 c for my area up to 27th. On the plus side, they are still bullish over a colder January so perhaps we will get a Scandi high further down the line.

[joggs]

15 minutes ago, KTtom said:

UKMO at 168- Its a long way to anything cold for the south from there...To be fair to the Met, they called this better than anyone, could have saved many hours of pain by just going off the app which has not deviated from 11-12 c for my area up to 27th. On the plus side, they are still bullish over a colder January so perhaps we will get a Scandi high further down the line.

Yes lol. The weather apps have trumped the model's this last few days

[That ECM]

9 minutes ago, KTtom said:

UKMO at 168- Its a long way to anything cold for the south from there...To be fair to the Met, they called this better than anyone, could have saved many hours of pain by just going off the app which has not deviated from 11-12 c for my area up to 27th. On the plus side, they are still bullish over a colder January so perhaps we will get a Scandi high further down the line.

Kind of defeats the objective of the hobby though doesn’t it? I’ve been watching the met forecast over the past few days for stow on the wold being high up in the Cotswolds and about as far south as the cold air ever looked like possibly getting. They have shown rain sleet and snow at various times for the 25th and 26th. That tells me they had as much uncertainty as many of us. 
 

What is now of interest is watching the output to see how that may look to fit their longer term thinking. ECM and gfs have hinted at the possible route. Ukmo doesn’t go far enough as it only goes to T168. If this becomes more prevalent then fair play to the met but the extended has changed more times than my mrs before a night out so far this season so I’ll watch with interest.

[jvenge]

GEFS Mean is quite representative of pretty much every ensemble member and Op towards New Year. What this means is the jet stream will run through the UK and bring quite wet weather and above average temperatures.

[booferking]

[lassie23]

It is your typical UK Christmas weather here, mild and gloomy, anything else would have been exceptional down south, Decembers here are usually pitiful for cold, so I wasn't expecting anything else apart from the default setting. At least those who were in here 24/7 looking for cold, can now sleep until January, that should be when the next load of being led up the garden path charts start to appear Luckily I listen to posters such as Crewe Cold who remain grounded and are not fooled by so cold boom charts, this avoids disappointment. If there has been an increase in sunspot activity, then expect a couple of weeks of Atlantic wet and windy boredom.

[PiscesStar]

7 minutes ago, jvenge said:

GEFS Mean is quite representative of pretty much every ensemble member and Op towards New Year. What this means is the jet stream will run through the UK and bring quite wet weather and above average temperatures.

Preciselywhat we didnt want but can anyone with any experience explain to me how after SO MANY RUNS across the model suites they get this cold spell SO wrong and within our grasp.. Its infuriating and so typical of our luck 

[iowpompeylee]

Morning everyone, still lots to be going on in a couple of weeks, I’m just hoping  that we don’t have too much rain on Xmas day Down on the south coast! Wishing you all a merry Xmas. To be honest we could all do with a week off all the best

[Captain Shortwave]

Not really much to add this morning, however moving forward the ECM is again suggesting that the Arctic high could drift towards a location that could be useful for the UK. Again the other models are not really going for this, but this looks like another ECM operational suggesting this movement. One to watch to see if it consistently catches on.

[nick sussex]

On to the next tease now !

The day 7 UKMO starts to sharpen up the upstream trough and cuts a shortwave se through Scotland .

The day 6 ECM is not without interest if there’s more sharpening of the trough day 7 .

[Cheshire Freeze]

Ahhh well, mid teens temperatures in early January…what is there not to love

[That ECM]

11 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Ahhh well, mid teens temperatures in early January…what is there not to love

And this is why there is such a difference between this and the extended. 

Edited December 23, 2021 by That ECM

[carinthian]

22 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

On to the next tease now !

The day 7 UKMO starts to sharpen up the upstream trough and cuts a shortwave se through Scotland .

The day 6 ECM is not without interest if there’s more sharpening of the trough day 7 .

Yes, Nick, it may appear the writing is on the wall for long term cold spell. Its been a long suffering week for cold lovers, just like the water drip torture to numb the grey cells. Anyway, still some cold about on Christmas Day into Boxing Day for a bit of interest , especially Northern Eastern parts of the UK , but looks like any Viking cold is limited to the outer reaches of the Humber Flue ( in the area of The Battle of Stamford Bridge) comes to mind , where King Harolds Southern forces marched up and repelled the Viking forces !  Lets give it another 24 hours of model runs before throwing in the towel on this one.

 

22 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

On to the next tease now !

The day 7 UKMO starts to sharpen up the upstream trough and cuts a shortwave se through Scotland .

The day 6 ECM is not without interest if there’s more sharpening of the trough day 7 .

 

Edited December 23, 2021 by carinthian

[jules216]

Its funny how these charts totaly dont represent these MJO Phase 7 intentions at all, for what its worth despite 3 day cold snap here in Slovakia month will finish above average, Also in UK, from reading Twitter,cold ramping etc you would think we "should" be running like 2C below av the less said about pattern Beyond Christmas the better. Here comes that Iberian high with only think preventing it to look like Bartlet is a tiny weaker polar profile in Arctic. Now look at MJO being quasi permanent in phase 7 looking  nothing like Phase 7 reanalysis, even analog years touted before - 2007,2016,2011 etc. naming few. To me in proves 2 thinks. 1. Analogs are obsolete in todays atmosphere. 2. Haddley Cell expansion - see that Iberian high that would in past perhaps stay in Africa now set to bring mild Európe weather. Subtropical highs are just too often inflated and in few degrees Higher latitudes.

[Nick F]

Deflated and defeated by some computer models. It's sure been a roller coaster ride like no other. At least we have Christmas TV, food and family to divert our attention away for a few days over the festive period, a well-timed break to forget the woeful output.

A nice long draw southwesterly from the Azores on the EC on New Years Day should make it pleasant for NY Day swimmers and walkers.

Edited December 23, 2021 by Nick F

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Its funny how these charts totaly dont represent these MJO Phase 7 intentions at all, for what its worth despite 3 day cold snap here in Slovakia month will finish above average, Also in UK, from reading Twitter,cold ramping etc you would think we "should" be running like 2C below av the less said about pattern Beyond Christmas the better. Here comes that Iberian high with only think preventing it to look like Bartlet is a tiny weaker polar profile in Arctic. Now look at MJO being quasi permanent in phase 7 looking  nothing like Phase 7 reanalysis, even analog years touted before - 2007,2016,2011 etc. naming few. To me in proves 2 thinks. 1. Analogs are obsolete in todays atmosphere. 2. Haddley Cell expansion - see that Iberian high that would in past perhaps stay in Africa now set to bring mild Európe weather. Subtropical highs are just too often inflated and in few degrees Higher latitudes.

Hard to disagree with any of that Jules.

It feels like a losing battle on the whole.

Oh well don't want to clog the thread with moans, maybe things will improve post Xmas.

Happy Christmas all .