Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[mulzy]

Poor charts this morning but as others have suggested the UKMO day 6 is the chart of the morning.  Let's see what this evening's runs bring.

Still look north east for that Arctic High - models historically struggle with it so expect significant run to run differences in the medium term.

 

[joggs]

51 minutes ago, jvenge said:

GEFS Mean is quite representative of pretty much every ensemble member and Op towards New Year. What this means is the jet stream will run through the UK and bring quite wet weather and above average temperatures.

The mean at the same time distance fir this week was nearly showing nirvana. So hopefully this one will be well off the mark.

[Duane S.]

Even the most optimistic and hardened of us must now relinquish our towels. As bonkers as this period has been, a turnaround from here is not going to happen. No doubt some will say it never was (you don’t get any kudos for that though I’m afraid). Yes it was becoming increasingly unlikely over the past few days but the possibilities remained there.

Whilst I’m not surprised to see us miss out on a decent cold and potentially snowy spell (we will always need a bit of luck with the timings) I am very surprised how quickly the heights above us are being shown to vanish, I certainly never saw that coming a week ago.

Don’t worry though about further lack of consistency, the now forecast long draw south westerlies will of course verify!

Still hopeful that after the mild spell we will see January look far more interesting than it currently does on the charts.

[sheikhy]

Ghastly charts this morning from start to finish!!job done

[JOPRO]

Well that was predictable to wake up to , guess its going to be very quiet in here over the next few weeks. That's the other killer when it goes the way of the pear is this place dies a death. I suppose we where due another Christmas 2015 after the last 2/3 being dry and chilly round my way. Will the last person to leave turn off the light. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Mild it will be for New Year period.  However, it won’t lock in….and neither will any cold synoptic.  I remember Xmas 1985….almost early summer like…walked to pub with my dad, brother and best friend….15/16c and sunny.  We know what happened in Feb 86 (not saying a repeat…I’m touting newsworthy ’major’ storms end Jan/early Feb).  Enjoy Xmas, we have some good news coming through re Omincron…have a great Christmas, it’ll be an interesting winter for sure.  Models won’t improve either….

 

BFTP 

Edited December 23, 2021 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Duane S.]

Whilst this is purely stratospheric, I’ll post it here for some Xmas cheer after the latest let down .

It may have big ramifications for the vortex trying to dictate matters. This is a now a very notable wave 2 forecast .

One to watch and why things could get interesting in the not too distant future...

 

[mountain shadow]

43 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Its funny how these charts totaly dont represent these MJO Phase 7 intentions at all, for what its worth despite 3 day cold snap here in Slovakia month will finish above average, Also in UK, from reading Twitter,cold ramping etc you would think we "should" be running like 2C below av the less said about pattern Beyond Christmas the better. Here comes that Iberian high with only think preventing it to look like Bartlet is a tiny weaker polar profile in Arctic. Now look at MJO being quasi permanent in phase 7 looking  nothing like Phase 7 reanalysis, even analog years touted before - 2007,2016,2011 etc. naming few. 

Yeh. This is the learning point for me from this. The MJO is essentially useless.

I mean, where exactly is the tropical wave that was supposed to aid colder weather?

[jules216]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Yeh. This is the learning point for me from this. The MJO is essentially useless.

I mean, where exactly is the tropical wave that was supposed to aid colder weather?

Look at USA, some.notable Twitter experts were touting change there for around Christmas because the MJO and NAO. How long does/did this -NAO stay and what change does it bring to East coast od USA? I agree that Scandi/Baltic and north Poland are having ok december, but how is december below 50° north in major European cities? Like 2013-2020 for sure and only latitudes above 800m cca did okay 

[Nick F]

55 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Now look at MJO being quasi permanent in phase 7 looking  nothing like Phase 7 reanalysis, even analog years touted before - 2007,2016,2011 etc. naming few. To me in proves 2 thinks. 1. Analogs are obsolete in todays atmosphere. 2. Haddley Cell expansion - see that Iberian high that would in past perhaps stay in Africa now set to bring mild Európe weather. Subtropical highs are just too often inflated and in few degrees Higher latitudes.

I'm afraid there's probably some truth there. It seems the analogs and composites of the traditionally colder phases of MJO could be becoming obsolete with global warming, though it is possible that ENSO forcing (La Nina cold SST anomalies over central Pacific) is perhaps actively interfering with usual poleward wave forcing of the MJO over the western Pacific  where we get the phases that promote colder patterns in the mid-latitudes. Certainly seems to me that the Azores / Bermuda high pressure belts driven by the Hadley Cell are extending further northwards and forcing the Atlantic storm track further north in winter, perhaps aided by basin-wide anomalously warm N Atlantic SSTs. This make it harder to get cold polar air south into Europe.

However, we did still get some cold spells last winter with snow and I've been of the mind that it could be a back-loaded winter for 2021-22. Not only could the basin wide La Nina become more east-based, which tends to force more favourable patterns later in winter for cold than a basin wide La Nina, we may also see a SSW in January, given the SPV has been modelled at times to become a punch bag as we head into the New Year from warming on the Pacific and Atlantic side and also weakened from the effects of the descending eQBO.

Given the MJO forcing in colder phases seems to no longer work, or interfered with by La Nina, we may have to rely on a SSW and more favourable changes in ENSO forcing to get colder patterns to develop later in winter.

 

Edited December 23, 2021 by Nick F

[Lukesluckybunch]

dear god surely it doesnt get any worse then this,if you want a cold outlook!

[SnowBlake]

A few days ago, many comments about southward corrections this, southward corrections that...

What happened? Was it wishful thinking?

Unlikely things will change in time now but still 3 months of chances ahead. We will get one of those winters to talk about again.

In a couple of weeks, grab a return flight to Riga (2 hours 30 runway to runway), catch a train if no snow in the capital to an hour away for a fiver, enjoy the snow for 1 day, explore the old town the next, hotels in Riga £30 a night for 2 including breakfast. Bus from airport to city 30 mins for €2.

Lateral flow test €24.

All in all including food, flight and accommodation doable for £150 for 2 nights, £200 for 3.

Meanwhile here in Eastern Latvia, minus 9 this morning (minus 16 in Riga), I'm off skiing shortly to the highest point in the country, about 312 metres.

Few snaps from the last couple of days out and about. Only an inch or snow after it all melted last week. More snow due later today and most of tomorrow, several inches perhaps.

Hasta la piste-a.

[Chesil View]

So there we have it another snow chase over with the usual results and no doubt those who predict mild in a mild country will think themselves rather smart, but predicting what happens in 80 percent of these cases anyway isn't really that clever or smart. The genuine talent lies in working out which ones will come off and that is still a work in progress for many of us. The added spice of the possibility of xmas snow probably coloured our hopes at welll

This one always relied on where the boundary between  the mild and cold would meet and that on such a small island nation as our is always going to be a hard call. Even the best Nwp has taken until two days before to sort it out and all of them at one point or another had channel lows and cold flooding south on the cards, so none of them have covered themselves in glory.

As a veteran of countless often fruitless chases in the Internet era.  I say to my fellow coldies and snowies don't be down hearted, my friends. Gird your loins for whilst this  chase has gone the way of the pear. The atmosphere is still primed in our favour going forward and this won't be our last chance for something wintry this season.

Meanwhile enjoy your Xmas whatever the weather. Because in reality any snow is just nature's icing on the cake. Family, friends and festivities are what really counts.

Happy Xmas, Netweather friends.

[SLEETY]

Good news is that we have deep cold air to tap in to,if we do get lucky,many winters havent even had a decent cold pool to tap into

Remember eary last jan the Easterly we had ? great looking charts but look at the rubbish uppers out East which were too high for snow,compared to the upper now.Potential is their!

[NewEra21]

So it's been a few weeks of ups and downs and ultimately not the ending we wanted. But I just wanted to say thanks to everyone on here for making these chases what they are with all of their insight and perspective.

Like most of us, I'm sure our girlfriends, wives, boyfriends etc etc just don't understand our thrill of the chase for cold. So it's a pleasure to share all of the ups, downs and the pain with you guys.

I'm sure we'll hopefully hit the jackpot into the new year, but in the meantime I hope that you all have a wonderful Christmas and stay safe!

HAPPY CHRISTMAS!!!

[PiscesStar]

3 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

So it's been a few weeks of ups and downs and ultimately not the ending we wanted. But I just wanted to say thanks to everyone on here for making these chases what they are with all of their insight and perspective.

Like most of us, I'm sure our girlfriends, wives, boyfriends etc etc just don't understand our thrill of the chase for cold. So it's a pleasure to share all of the ups, downs and the pain with you guys.

I'm sure we'll hopefully hit the jackpot into the new year, but in the meantime I hope that you all have a wonderful Christmas and stay safe!

HAPPY CHRISTMAS!!!

Would have been a lot happier with some snow.. Sorry this years been crap for a great many people 

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

So it's been a few weeks of ups and downs and ultimately not the ending we wanted. But I just wanted to say thanks to everyone on here for making these chases what they are with all of their insight and perspective.

Like most of us, I'm sure our girlfriends, wives, boyfriends etc etc just don't understand our thrill of the chase for cold. So it's a pleasure to share all of the ups, downs and the pain with you guys.

I'm sure we'll hopefully hit the jackpot into the new year, but in the meantime I hope that you all have a wonderful Christmas and stay safe!

HAPPY CHRISTMAS!!!

Damn right in regards to the second paragraph and i dont think they ever will❤!!

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, PiscesStar said:

Would have been a lot happier with some snow.. Sorry this years been crap for a great many people 

I feel you man!!!im gutted as well!!its like theres nothing to look forward to now apart from the standard stuff you do on a daily basis!!i guess it could be a lot worse but there just sumin bout snow that lifts the warm weather lovers as well!!

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

I feel you man!!!im gutted as well!!its like theres nothing to look forward to now apart from the standard stuff you do on a daily basis!!i guess it could be a lot worse but there just sumin bout snow that lifts the warm weather lovers as well!!

hi sheikhy have we finally given up hope on any cold next few days,or are we still hoping for corrections further south on 6z...hahaha im thinking this fire is already out

[Purga]

Pretty convincing shift to mild or very mild unfortunately this morning

[snowstorm27x]

Thank god we had that snow in early December because the charts are not pretty viewing this morning. Average and wet sums it up as we head into New year. Feel for the Southerners I know my family in Somerset haven't see a flake since 2018. Was hoping a nice White Xmas or Boxing day was on the cards. But nope oh well let's see if Jan can deliver. 

[sheikhy]

7 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

hi sheikhy have we finally given up hope on any cold next few days,or are we still hoping for corrections further south on 6z...hahaha im thinking this fire is already out

Well the back of my mind is telling me yeh still possible but thats just the hope i got in me!!realistically its all over my friend!!lets enjoy the rest of this year and the holidays with the family and start a fresh from the new year!!i think we all need a reset after the latest let down!!

[sebastiaan1973]

39 minutes ago, Nick F said:

I'm afraid there's probably some truth there. It seems the analogs and composites of the traditionally colder phases of MJO could be becoming obsolete with global warming, though it is possible that ENSO forcing (La Nina cold SST anomalies over central Pacific) is perhaps actively interfering with usual poleward wave forcing of the MJO over the western Pacific  where we get the phases that promote colder patterns in the mid-latitudes. Certainly seems to me that the Azores / Bermuda high pressure belts driven by the Hadley Cell are extending further northwards and forcing the Atlantic storm track further north in winter, perhaps aided by basin-wide anomalously warm N Atlantic SSTs. This make it harder to get cold polar air south into Europe.

However, we did still get some cold spells last winter with snow and I've been of the mind that it could be a back-loaded winter for 2021-22. Not only could the basin wide La Nina become more east-based, which tends to force more favourable patterns later in winter for cold than a basin wide La Nina, we may also see a SSW in January, given the SPV has been modelled at times to become a punch bag as we head into the New Year from warming on the Pacific and Atlantic side and also weakened from the effects of the descending eQBO.

Given the MJO forcing in colder phases seems to no longer work, or interfered with by La Nina, we may have to rely on a SSW and more favourable changes in ENSO forcing to get colder patterns to develop later in winter.

 

The MJO analogy charts show an average. With the MJO in phase 7 the chance for northern blocking is greater not guaranteed. We do see northern blocking, but not the extent we wish for. That can happen. Tamara and Singularity told us earlier that the pressure should rise in Spain, Portugal. We have to see the MJO in context. 

Edited December 23, 2021 by sebastiaan1973

[Guest]

I agree with all the heart felt disappointment above but this trip up the garden path was one of the cruelest, only 2 days ago it was looking like a white xmas for quite a few!

My reaction was more like this regarding the models as a whole!

 MERRY XMAS FELLOW SNOW FREAKS!

[Lukesluckybunch]

6 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Well the back of my mind is telling me yeh still possible but thats just the hope i got in me!!realistically its all over my friend!!lets enjoy the rest of this year and the holidays with the family and start a fresh from the new year!!i think we all need a reset after the latest let down!!

yes im with you,i actually feel quite upset about it all