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Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please remember this is a model based discussion - some chat is ok, but a weather model related theme should run throughout.

The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family friendly

For a less frenetic look at the models head over to the alternate model discussion. 

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shunthebartlett92 Enthusiast

shunthebartlett92

Posted
  • Location: West Mids, 100m asl
  • Location: West Mids, 100m asl
Posted
5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Anyone else setting alarm for 04.30

That was a very special moment on Tuesday in the early hours, but it’ll be 8am tomorrow, probably, here’s to some good upgrades, plenty of precipitation and a watering down of that tropical maritime influence!

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Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
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Posted
3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

I’m really not that sure what we are hoping or looking for anymore. 
 

it’s going to be a bit nippy and some places may get a bit of snow if you live up a big hill. 
 

next

Because there's big room for improvements given how much things have been changing. No definite tho.

Plus I'm finding this whole model divergence episode extremely fascinating.

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted

Woeful performance by the models, betting anything the  midnight runs be crud then flip back 12 hours later again, useless 

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

Because there's big room for improvements given how much things have been changing. No definite tho.

Plus I'm finding this whole model divergence episode extremely fascinating.

Its certainly gripping. Like the models are toying with us. 

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted
14 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Think the ECM spilt its coffee a bit before that!

Yep at about 24h, compared to others. 

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markw2680 Accomplished

markw2680

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
Posted
12 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Anyone else setting alarm for 04.30

If it’s anything like this mornings your going to be very upset and have sore eyes from the lack of sleep, if I was you I’d wait until it’s light mate 

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NorthernRab Accomplished

NorthernRab

Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
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Posted
8 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

I’m really not that sure what we are hoping or looking for anymore. 
 

it’s going to be a bit nippy and some places may get a bit of snow if you live up a big hill. 
 

next

There are many members from Scotland on this forum and the models tentatively support the possibility of sustained cold from Christmas Eve to Hogmanay.

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted
14 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Anyone else setting alarm for 04.30

I developed sleep problems after regularly waking up 4am during 2012/2013 cold weather, so I don't dare now! I'll probably be up for D6 on the ECM

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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

GFS closer to the ECM 12z by day 10... it’s not that much of a reduction in zonal flow away from setting up a Scandinavian High with the UK on the western fringes.

Regarding the control run - it’s essentially the ensemble member with zero perturbation to its starting point. So, the deterministic at a lower resolution. Useful for seeing if the det. is spotting something important in the short-term via additional resolution (be it rightly or wrongly so...). Otherwise no more significant than the other ensembles (uncertainty of starting conditions prevents it having an edge via not being perturbed).

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

JMA 18z - switch to ecm. Night all.

GN mate and have a good sleep,...you deserve it and need it 

i am also hitting the pillow,...goodnight all.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted (edited)

Hope the ECM is picking up on the next chase,with proper deep cold on the 9 and 10 day charts, beginning to head towards UK, the way it's been performing I would say not even worth a 2nd glance till it get to plus 48 hours, then it will still probably muck it up!! 

Edited by SLEETY
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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

If there’s not more than 200 new entries when I check at 0630 ish then I may not bother I think deep down most of us from south of the Midlands don’t expect anything white from Xmas day/boxing day - it’s only really the GEM that has supported that chance, so very unlikely!! Night all 

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

Wow. This is reminding me of that Dec 2005 Easterly! The one that vanished and then reappeared again at less than 2 days before it happened. Last night, I was seeing it being written off by many. It’s the equivalent of leaving a stadium when you’re losing 5 minutes until full time, and then the result gets flipped on its head. Always stay until that full time whistle blows!! 

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
14 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

If there’s not more than 200 new entries when I check at 0630 ish then I may not bother I think deep down most of us from south of the Midlands don’t expect anything white from Xmas day/boxing day - it’s only really the GEM that has supported that chance, so very unlikely!! Night all 

I've always used that as a good barometer for the morning model runs!

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
15 minutes ago, jamesgold said:

Ah, was fearing that

Yes, I'm not expecting any miracles tomorrow but who knows after this saga?!

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted

Complete mess from all models let's hope the next chase is better handled, which starts hopefully just after Xmas, the midnight runs hardly seem worth looking at any more, wait till the 12z runs tomorrow 

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted
10 minutes ago, Don said:

Expecting the UKMO, GEM etc to move towards ECM/ICON in morning.....

Needless to say, hope I'm wrong!!

I'm hoping for the opposite, but expect you are right.

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

I'm hoping for the opposite, but expect you are right.

Oh, I'm definitely hoping for the opposite, but fear I will be correct!

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A Frayed Knot Community Regular

A Frayed Knot

Posted
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
Posted

Don't bother chasing the charts. I stayed up to see the weather for the week ahead on BBC that use Meteo.. Mild and wet, some snow in Scotland on high elevation as for down here it's Dry and a damp squid. I'm sure someone is tweaking them charts to get your hopes up. I'm well puddled of but it what it is.. Until the next time of model hunting I bid you all farewell and goodnight. 

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weathermadbarnsleylad Aficionado

weathermadbarnsleylad

Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
Posted

Up ready for the (last chance its never going to happen why oh why always downgrades on us coldies) 00z gfs) . It can't upgrade can it ????.

Ps it's Xmas eve eve everybody. 

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