Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[swfc]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

There’s no denying the disappointment after this last week but we still have lots in our favour - notably the lack of any major PV to our North on any model at day 10, and the METO long range. Just a case of waiting , and hoping something will pop up in the medium range rather than have to track it in from day 15 as this is really painful - especially when it falls apart last minute!! 

Good point on the PV Ali it's been on holiday a good while. 

[Eagle Eye]

5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I bet the models don't back down on that ever inflating Iberia high . You have to laugh. Humour is the only way to get through it. 

That is the netweather way 

[jamesgold]

Well, I guess it’s look to the stratosphere time. That was a really good shot at blocking with strong signals, but you’d have no idea looking at the charts. Surprising to see with all the drivers in our favour. I have a bit of an all or nothing feeling about this winter, when will we get these drivers again in such a combination? Anyway winter in the UK pretty much begins in January so let’s see…

[joggs]

1 hour ago, frosty ground said:

The weather apps take raw data from the models, the data used is dependent on the model for each app.

 

of the apps got this right the models did, you’ve been chasing a phantom for the last few days.

very much a case of a dead parrot.

If they took the raw data from the model's,the model's at one point we're all in agreement if low single figure temps while a few apps were showing 8/9/10c.......

Something's not right about that then.

[swfc]

35 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

The GFS is sliding the low a tad more at 54 hours, why am I still doing this to myself haha

@sheikhy

You need to "let it go" as John rambo said

[IDO]

I suppose if it is not cold and/or snowy then rather have warmth, as per the 06z:

D6-D8> 

[swfc]

Just now, IDO said:

I suppose if it is not cold and/or snowy then rather have warmth, as per the 06z:

D6-D8> 

Yes why not, saves on heating bills. Onto the next chase. Fgs I sound like Bradley Walsh

[Jeremy Shockey]

GFS 06z precipitation

A few lucky ones in the North East of the UK will get a Christmas Day Wintry surprise on the Northern flank i would reckon. ( altitude will help of course )

The cold air digging down just a fraction further South on this 06z run

[Downburst]

50 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Yep, I'm convinced that increased solar activity has played its part in this dramatic turnaround. Multiple CME's being ejected from the sun these last couple of days towards earth. Perfect timing, as ever. 

I'm curious if this "Solar Activity" or sun spots only impacts the UK? not sure if I am following this as I haven't seen any scientific articles confirming this.  

[Methuselah]

Well, it certainly looks like possible mid-teens to me. I'll take that; I'd rather that than rain at 5C and pages and pages of incessant bickering. . . with temps like these, it won't snow in anyone's back yard!

    

[Eagle Eye]

Why couldn't I have done all this in Summer, La Niña seems to have been a good omen for storm season in the years it's been as strong as it seems to be now, if this were in Summer I could see a few good old plumes if this were in Summer, plus with a wandering Polar Vortex and the potential for a SSW continuously being mentioned, we shouldn't give up on Winter just yet there's plenty of time.

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Downburst said:

I'm curious if this "Solar Activity" or sun spots only impacts the UK? not sure if I am following this as I haven't seen any scientific articles confirming this.  

Its more to do with its affect on the northern arm of the jet over the Atlantic. Studies have shown that ejections (CME's) from the sun increase energy in the northern arm. Of course, this affects the UK but also north west Europe. Some have made the point that some of our severe winters have coincided with solar max but even during solar max, the sun won't be spewing out CME's all the time. Conversely, these CME's can be spewed out during solar minimum or like now, when it is coming out of solar minimum. The studies have shown it is these ejections that ramp up the northern arm in the atlantic and lead to a positive nao. I know Stuart Rampling aka Glacier Point put a lot of credence in this phenomenon. 

[MP-R]

4 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Why couldn't I have done all this in Summer, La Niña seems to have been a good omen for storm season in the years it's been as strong as it seems to be now, if this were in Summer I could see a few good old plumes if this were in Summer, plus with a wandering Polar Vortex and the potential for a SSW continuously being mentioned, we shouldn't give up on Winter just yet there's plenty of time.

La Niña summers tend to go a bit pear shaped though when a moderate to strong one. Many a La Niña year bring the right synoptics in the wrong months.

[Katrine Basso]

This is the first I have posted here and my view of the weather models using computer runs is that being an island where the weather can change very quickly from one day to the other as well as the geographical differences in the weather from Scotland, Ireland, Wales and England along with the influence of the weather from the continent and from the Atlantic jet-stream. Our weather is harder to predict than the continent countries. It is so many things to consider in forecasting our weather, compared to the continent. The only we can get consistently cold weather is for Ireland and the British Isles to move close to Iceland. I do not think the computer runs can cope with so many variables effecting our weather, that they either over estimate mild winter weather or over estimate it.

Edited December 23, 2021 by Katrine Basso

[Gowon]

19 minutes ago, IDO said:

I suppose if it is not cold and/or snowy then rather have warmth, as per the 06z:

D6-D8> 

@lassie23 Good for lassie, he can get his flip flops out 

Edited December 23, 2021 by D.V.R
typo

[Ali1977]

This is what we need I think , not sure we’ll get an Arctic high here but it could happen with similar set ups on future runs!! Heights coming in fast on the other side of the pole though

Edited December 23, 2021 by Ali1977

[Eagle Eye]

2 minutes ago, MP-R said:

La Niña summers tend to go a bit pear shaped though when a moderate to strong one. Many a La Niña year bring the right synoptics in the wrong months.

That is one trouble though, I do think that Spring will be better than Summer anyway this is going a bit off topic sorry mods, not much to comment on the output at the moment though 

[blizzard81]

Now this looks promising. What could possibly go wrong

[Gowon]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

This is what we need I think 

Get ready for the next chase everyone

[jayb1989]

Some solid consistency now for a mild new year. Well above the average for the time of year. Should feel spring like in any sun.

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, D.V.R said:

Get ready for the next chase everyone

Absolutely. Where is people's stamina and tenacity these days

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, jayb1989 said:

Some solid consistency now for a mild new year. Well above the average for the time of year. Should feel spring like in any sun.

The false assumption here is that there will be some sun 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, jayb1989 said:

Some solid consistency now for a mild new year. Well above the average for the time of year. Should feel spring like in any sun.

What I find fascinating is that nobody saw anything that this coming. 

[Staffmoorlands]

3 minutes ago, jayb1989 said:

Some solid consistency now for a mild new year. Well above the average for the time of year. Should feel spring like in any sun.

Unfortunately, we rarely get any sun at this time of year to really enjoy the mild weather.

I’m still expecting a return to colder conditions as we head in to January

 

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Unfortunately, we rarely get any sun at this time of year to really enjoy the mild weather.

I’m still expecting a return to colder conditions as we head in to January

 

A "return to colder conditions"? 

Did I miss something? We haven't had colder conditions to return too.