Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[blizzard81]

34 minutes ago, Tamara said:

@Singularityanswered this question very well a few pages back *and very much a similar message I repeat many times). The MJO is one component of the global wind-flow budget (a very important one) - but the extra - tropical circulation also has to be considered to get a fuller picture of the overall tropospheric circulation and how in turn this affects the relationship within the stratosphere

As far as I am concerned the tropical MJO and extratropical GWO (Global Wind Oscillation) have produced a' harmonious' wind-flow signal based on amplified rossby wave propagation from the tropics to extra tropics and created a profile for deceleration of zonal winds between 50N and 60N. Hence the presence of the wedged heights circa Iceland to Greenland, following on from the mid latitude block close to the UK. However, the impression among the disappointed within this forum that the diagnostics 'doesn't work'is not just down to the need to fit the diagnostic to one favoured outcome and which obscures that the synoptic response has actually been a close match in terms of height anomalies and placements (notwithstanding the failure for strong enough and sustained enough cold air advection to deliver the weather that UK members want to see). Its also to do with the following:

1) Insufficient cold air close by to the UK to tap straight into and create a stronger dense profile of cold air - hence harder to get enough negative tilt on low pressure areas to disrupt for the greater part of what is a small geographical area (the UK) within a large Northern Hemisphere, let alone island within a large continental landmass one side and a vast ocean the other. Precise geographical alignment is required at the outset to direct this to a small island, notwithstanding 2) which is most relevant of all

2) However another take-away, and really the more important one that looks set to facilitate the lifting out of cold air trying to advect southwards across the UK without too much resistance is the solar uptick/ -ve  (easterly) QBO interface helping to weaken the burgeoning heights over the Arctic and hence the blocking structures towards Iceland retrograding towards Greenland have been made weaker than they otherwise might have been.

At the same as the polar cell is weakened, a boost to the Hadley cell occurs and subsequent expansion of sub tropical riding. The interest, which I have repeated looking ahead, is whether the adjustments occurring within the Pacific to alter the rossby wavelength feedbacks and hence keep an unstable GSDM profile (which adds further amplification into the atmospheric circulation) can override the ongoing dampening down of blocking structures trying to establish further poleward as further momentum transport occurs, or whether the countervailing equatorward processes prove stronger than this and instead sustain strong sub tropical ridges amidst the backdrop of the lowering of pressure in the middle and upper layers.

Its very much one set of forcing coming up against an opposite set of forcing and really quite fine margins between a strong Hadley cell and weaker polar cell or vice versa,  weakened sub tropical forcing and increased propensity for momentum transport to migrate anticyclonic wave-breaking to higher latitudes. In this respect a floor to angular momentum is required additionally through active tropical convection sustaining deeper into the winter- as collapsing AAM entails greater polar jet strength which would add further weight and attritional forcing to the solar uptick/-ve QBO forcing lowering pressure at higher latitudes.

Its not straightforward one way or the other. Equally, the -ve QBO, on the basis that the solar uptick is not sustained could on the other hand dovetail with buoyant tropical convection and lead to the opposite regime and evidence of other winters with similar parallels to now has seen January and into February have quite different blocking structures to the ones advertised for the end of 2021 and into 2022. I am happy with the current evolution and some further balmy warmth down here in Portugal, but from a weather pattern point of view and suspending personal preference, it is also very interesting to see how these conflicting tropospheric/stratospheric factors play out and which gains an upper hand over the extended period.

Thank you Tamara. I'm relieved that more members of this forum are now open to discussions about solar activity. When I first mentioned it on this forum back in 2012 I was almost hounded off the forum with some incredibly arrogant and rude replies. I of course don't want the subject of solar activity to dominate this thread. However, people talk about 'drivers' on this forum and of course how important they are in trying to fathom out the complexities of our climate. I could argue that surely the sun is a huge driver (maybe the biggest) when it comes to earth's climate so I would therefore go on to say that it would be folly to put the subject of solar activity into a box. 

Edited December 23, 2021 by blizzard81

[andy989]

I for one strongly believe Solar activity influences the weather in a way where you don't have as much lag effect as say a SSW. Perhaps a solar activity thread?

[Staffmoorlands]

4 minutes ago, Don said:

Winters 1985/86 and 1986/87 were cold and the Decembers were 6.3C and 6.2C.  Albeit, that was a long time ago!

 

 A long time ago and very much harder to get cold winter months since 1989 (although still possible)

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Thank you Tamara. I'm relieved that more members of this forum are now open to discussions about solar activity. When I first mentioned it on this forum back in 2012 I was almost hounded off the forum with some incredibly arrogant and rude replies. I of course don't want the subject of solar activity to dominate this thread. However, people talk about 'drivers' on this forum and of course how important they are in trying to fathom out the complexities of our climate. I could argue that surely the sun is a huge driver (maybe the biggest) when it comes to earth's climate so I would therefore go on to say that it would be folly to put the subject of solar activity into a box. 

Has to be at least a factor considering the near evaporation in heights within a 48 hour period,

I suppose the next question is, if the solar output drops away, will the teleconnections put us back in a pattern conducive for blocking or have we missed the boat now this winter?

[blizzard81]

Also so typical that by the sounds of it, an uptick in solar emissions is more detrimental to North west european winters when the QBO is easterly as Tamara mentioned. I assume therefore that solar flares wouldn't be as detrimental in westerly phases of the QBO. How ironic and sickening that is when most of us were lauding the arrival of the easterly QBO giving us a better chance of a cold winter. What an awful twist. You just couldn't make it up. 

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Has to be at least a factor considering the near evaporation in heights within a 48 hour period,

I suppose the next question is, if the solar output drops away, will the teleconnections put us back in a pattern conducive for blocking or have we missed the boat now this winter?

Good question mate. The most frustrating thing about solar flares is that they can spring up at very short notice with little warning. 

[Staffmoorlands]

Sun spots / solar activity has been covered well by Piers Corbyn who has just been released form police custody. 

Everyone Complains About the Weather... Piers Corbyn Is Doing Something About It. | WIRED

WWW.WIRED.COM

---

Stay tuned: The 365-day outlook is next. Sitting in his office in Elephant and Castle, a seedy suburb of south London, Piers Corbyn admits he prefers to do his calculations by hand. It’s not a matter of "religious...

 

[booferking]

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Thank you Tamara. I'm relieved that more members of this forum are now open to discussions about solar activity. When I first mentioned it on this forum back in 2012 I was almost hounded off the forum with some incredibly arrogant and rude replies. I of course don't want the subject of solar activity to dominate this thread. However, people talk about 'drivers' on this forum and of course how important they are in trying to fathom out the complexities of our climate. I could argue that surely the sun is a huge driver (maybe the biggest) when it comes to earth's climate so I would therefore go on to say that it would be folly to put the subject of solar activity into a box. 

Yea I'm a believer of sunspots but is it not usually a delayed response lagged event we have just merely come out of a solar minimum doesn't add up to me at all.

Ps couple of great years circled on the  solar cycle23 min diddly-squat to show so far for solar cycle24.

[Methuselah]

27 minutes ago, Alexis said:

Bear in mind this easterly was really only a stonker on one ECM run 7 days ago. It was immediately watered down and ever since any predicted easterly has been a weak and transitory affair.

Maybe the models can factor-in a CME before it's even happened. European Clairvoyancy Model?

Edited December 23, 2021 by Ed Stone

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Yea I'm a believer of sunspots but is it not usually a delayed response lagged event we have just merely come out of a solar minimum doesn't add up to me at all.

Ps couple of great years circled on the  solar cycle23 min diddly-squat to show so far for solar cycle24.

I'm really not sure about the lagged effect theory. Solar emissions tend to affect everything else (radio waves, satellites etc) within 48 to 72 hours so I would guess weather patterns to be affected just as rapidly. 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Maybe the models can factor-in a CME before it's even happened. European Clairvoyancy Model

That is funny. However, joking aside, solar activity is forecasted on many space weather forecasting tools. There are lots on the Internet. 

[jonboy]

10 minutes ago, booferking said:

Yea I'm a believer of sunspots but is it not usually a delayed response lagged event we have just merely come out of a solar minimum doesn't add up to me at all.

Ps couple of great years circled on the  solar cycle23 min diddly-squat to show so far for solar cycle24.

I think this totally ignores other factors other than sunspot numbers. You have to look at total effect whether that is solar wind speed or cosmic ray levels or even the speed of change or not. Many many factors at play so just using sunspot numbers is a falsehood in my opinion

[jonboy]

7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I'm really not sure about the lagged effect theory. Solar emissions tend to affect everything else (radio waves, satellites etc) within 48 to 72 hours so I would guess weather patterns to be affected just as rapidly. 

I would disagree totally with this statement. Not enough is known about the total effect to say because of x y will happen in a few days.

It has long been speculated that cosmic rays helps cloud seeding. Increasing  cloud cover over time will impact weather patterns again over time it certainly is not an overnight event.

[Don]

59 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Wait for the 12z and have another moan I guess. Although there's still some interest if the 6z was correct, it's just not all that good now.

Not sure the 12z's are worth bothering with today if you want cold!  Maybe better to leave until after Christmas?! 

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

That is funny. However, joking aside, solar activity is forecasted on many space weather forecasting tools. There are lots on the Internet. 

True. But the way I see it, three things need to be accounted for: photons travel at C, other particles, at whatever speed the Solar wind is travelling, so no impediment to rapid action, there; but, heavier substances with much inertia (such as airmasses) need good old Newtonian forces to shift them, and that takes time? 

[mountain shadow]

17 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I'm really not sure about the lagged effect theory. Solar emissions tend to affect everything else (radio waves, satellites etc) within 48 to 72 hours so I would guess weather patterns to be affected just as rapidly. 

And it should be pointed out that solar activity is still only classed as moderate, having risen from low in the last couple of weeks. Solar activity is not high.

I remain to be convinced that an increase in solar activity from low to moderate can override a favourable MJO, favourable -eqbo and a favourable la nina in the space of week or two.  If it can, then again I state that medium term (8-14 days) forecasts are pointless.

[Scandinavian High.]

5 minutes ago, Don said:

Not sure the 12z's are worth bothering with today if you want cold!  Maybe better to leave until after Christmas?! 

I’m keeping Faith not for Christmas but further ahead meto seem on colder side I hope don’t change.

[Blessed Weather]

Folks - having joined in the discussions in here, I now find myself having to suggest we carry on the solar discussions over in the correct thread please, before I get into trouble with the rest of the moderation team.
Thanks.

 

[Eagle Eye]

I guess I'll have to add solar activity to my list of topics to research, next year has been looking much better to me with the end of cycles tending to be the time where we get better snowy Winter's in my experience, the QBO's cycle looks like it'll end sometime next year but I don't have the power of concentration to track the average time from start to end of the descending easterly winds

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Tamara said:

@Singularityanswered this question very well a few pages back *and very much a similar message I repeat many times). The MJO is one component of the global wind-flow budget (a very important one) - but the extra - tropical circulation also has to be considered to get a fuller picture of the overall tropospheric circulation and how in turn this affects the relationship within the stratosphere

As far as I am concerned the tropical MJO and extratropical GWO (Global Wind Oscillation) have produced a' harmonious' wind-flow signal based on amplified rossby wave propagation from the tropics to extra tropics and created a profile for deceleration of zonal winds between 50N and 60N. Hence the presence of the wedged heights circa Iceland to Greenland, following on from the mid latitude block close to the UK. However, the impression among the disappointed within this forum that the diagnostics 'doesn't work'is not just down to the need to fit the diagnostic to one favoured outcome and which obscures that the synoptic response has actually been a close match in terms of height anomalies and placements (notwithstanding the failure for strong enough and sustained enough cold air advection to deliver the weather that UK members want to see). Its also to do with the following:

1) Insufficient cold air close by to the UK to tap straight into and create a stronger dense profile of cold air - hence harder to get enough negative tilt on low pressure areas to disrupt for the greater part of what is a small geographical area (the UK) within a large Northern Hemisphere, let alone island within a large continental landmass one side and a vast ocean the other. Precise geographical alignment is required at the outset to direct this to a small island, notwithstanding 2) which is most relevant of all

2) However another take-away, and really the more important one that looks set to facilitate the lifting out of cold air trying to advect southwards across the UK without too much resistance is the solar uptick/ -ve  (easterly) QBO interface helping to weaken the burgeoning heights over the Arctic and hence the blocking structures towards Iceland retrograding towards Greenland have been made weaker than they otherwise might have been.

At the same as the polar cell is weakened, a boost to the Hadley cell occurs and subsequent expansion of sub tropical riding. The interest, which I have repeated looking ahead, is whether the adjustments occurring within the Pacific to alter the rossby wavelength feedbacks and hence keep an unstable GSDM profile (which adds further amplification into the atmospheric circulation) can override the ongoing dampening down of blocking structures trying to establish further poleward as further momentum transport occurs, or whether the countervailing equatorward processes prove stronger than this and instead sustain strong sub tropical ridges amidst the backdrop of the lowering of pressure in the middle and upper layers.

Its very much one set of forcing coming up against an opposite set of forcing and really quite fine margins between a strong Hadley cell and weaker polar cell or vice versa,  weakened sub tropical forcing and increased propensity for momentum transport to migrate anticyclonic wave-breaking to higher latitudes. In this respect a floor to angular momentum is required additionally through active tropical convection sustaining deeper into the winter- as collapsing AAM entails greater polar jet strength which would add further weight and attritional forcing to the solar uptick/-ve QBO forcing lowering pressure at higher latitudes.

Its not straightforward one way or the other. Equally, the -ve QBO, on the basis that the solar uptick is not sustained could on the other hand dovetail with buoyant tropical convection and lead to the opposite regime and evidence of other winters with similar parallels to now has seen January and into February have quite different blocking structures to the ones advertised for the end of 2021 and into 2022. I am happy with the current evolution and some further balmy warmth down here in Portugal, but from a weather pattern point of view and suspending personal preference, it is also very interesting to see how these conflicting tropospheric/stratospheric factors play out and which gains an upper hand over the extended period.

Hi
Can you tell me please, what "boosted the Hadley cell"?..

 

[Catacol]

54 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Thank you Tamara. I'm relieved that more members of this forum are now open to discussions about solar activity. When I first mentioned it on this forum back in 2012 I was almost hounded off the forum with some incredibly arrogant and rude replies. I of course don't want the subject of solar activity to dominate this thread. However, people talk about 'drivers' on this forum and of course how important they are in trying to fathom out the complexities of our climate. I could argue that surely the sun is a huge driver (maybe the biggest) when it comes to earth's climate so I would therefore go on to say that it would be folly to put the subject of solar activity into a box. 

It is certainly the case that in the blink of an eye heights over the arctic would appear to be bleeding away. On 11th Dec the sun was spotless. We now have 9 active regions with over 40 spots. Decent spike. Correlation however does not necessarily equal cause.

Edited December 23, 2021 by Catacol

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Hi
Can you tell me please, what "boosted the Hadley cell"?..

 

a cold weather vaccine.

[Don]

1 minute ago, Catacol said:

It is certainly the case that in the blink of an eye heights over the arctic would appear to be bleeding away. on 11th Dec the sun was spotless. We now have 9 active regions with over 40 spots. Decent spike.

That's one hell of a spike!  I hope the sun is not going to scupper the chance of a cold winter overall, but that is concerning!?

[mushymanrob]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

a cold weather vaccine.

.............. only 1?... lol

[TSNWK]

This time on Monday we had  generated at least a page on the icon model as the warm up act..  3 days later we wander into solar spots and climate change.. a broad remit... Be this thread