Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[Frosty_wsm]

36 minutes ago, SnowBlake said:

A few days ago, many comments about southward corrections this, southward corrections that...

What happened? Was it wishful thinking?

Unlikely things will change in time now but still 3 months of chances ahead. We will get one of those winters to talk about again.

In a couple of weeks, grab a return flight to Riga (2 hours 30 runway to runway), catch a train if no snow in the capital to an hour away for a fiver, enjoy the snow for 1 day, explore the old town the next, hotels in Riga £30 a night for 2 including breakfast. Bus from airport to city 30 mins for €2.

Lateral flow test €24.

All in all including food, flight and accommodation doable for £150 for 2 nights, £200 for 3.

Meanwhile here in Eastern Latvia, minus 9 this morning (minus 16 in Riga), I'm off skiing shortly to the highest point in the country, about 312 metres.

Few snaps from the last couple of days out and about. Only an inch or snow after it all melted last week. More snow due later today and most of tomorrow, several inches perhaps.

Hasta la piste-a.

The bit highlighted in bold, no I don't think it was wishful thinking at all, countless times we've seen low pressure pushed further south than originally forecast but in this instance the high pressure /wedge to our north imploded so nothing was there to force lp further south. 

I remember a few years back with a 'sliding' low pressure up against a block to our north, at the start of the week the snow line was forecast for northern england, by the end of the week when the event happened it ended up a  south west /south of M4 event! 

Edited December 23, 2021 by Smartie

[IDO]

I remember last year when forecasters were expecting more amplified patterns due to the MJO, that never happened as the underlying drivers overran the signal. I have been hesitant to get excited about any MJO hype this year for that reason and suspect, like last winter, we will need to rely on the machinations of the trop for weak ridges and wedges with a mid-lat Pacific high rather than a wave. An SSW is likely our shot at anything longer lasting and we are looking at Feb at the very earliest for any hope of that now, if at all.

A time to enjoy Christmas and await the next opportunity, hopefully early in 2022, for another potential colder shot. Even at D16 on the GFS the tPV looks weak and exposed to any ridge building. Whilst that remains, cold could still return sooner rather than later.

[johncam]

Think the model programmers need to go back to the drawing board 

[mountain shadow]

16 minutes ago, Purga said:

Pretty convincing shift to mild or very mild unfortunately this morning

And a couple of days ago, every single member went cold. Another epic GFS fail.

Remember when we were all criticising the ECM for showing mild, well looks like it was right.

At least things will be slower in here and give the MODS some peace and hopefully we'll see an SSW to lead to a colder end to Winter.

[Staffmoorlands]

9 hours ago, Kasim Awan said:

Anyone else setting alarm for 04.30

Just got up - hope the early start was worth it

On a serious note, that Iberian high is the death of many potential cold spells. We really need more analysis on what is causing this high to remain here rather than retreat to Northern Africa in winter which the old text books will tell you should happen.

[snowstorm27x]

4 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

I agree with all the heart felt disappointment above but this trip up the garden path was one of the cruelest, only 2 days ago it was looking like a white xmas for quite a few!

My reaction was more like this regarding the models as a whole!

 MERRY XMAS FELLOW SNOW FREAKS!

Yep I think that's why there was alot of emotion on this one as a White Christmas is the Holy grail. Some posts yesterday over stepped the mark but understandable as this was on a knife edge just one low pressure system wanting to kiss another screwed us all.

[sheikhy]

Just now, mountain shadow said:

And a couple of days ago, every single member went cold. Another epic GFS fail.

Remember when we were all criticising the ECM for showing mild, well looks like it was right.

At least things will be slower in here and give the MODS some peace and hopefully we'll see an SSW to lead to a colder end to Winter.

Never criticise the ecm!i dont call it king of models for nothing!!yeh it flapped around just like every other model but it never went full wack to cold and held itself back each time!!in the end it was closER to the mark!!!i mentiones this daaays ago!!

[bluearmy]

Well there are positives from this episode

ICON renews it’s claim to be respected 

GEM reminds us that it’s no better than gfs 

Ukmo loses its claim to be the prime arbiter at day 4/5 

ecm (and the eps) stand out as the gold standard in the period days 4/7. 

however, this was a complex evolution and a slight change here or there had big ramifications for our little island 

onto the next ‘amplification’……

[PiscesStar]

35 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

I feel you man!!!im gutted as well!!its like theres nothing to look forward to now apart from the standard stuff you do on a daily basis!!i guess it could be a lot worse but there just sumin bout snow that lifts the warm weather lovers as well!!

Yes. Its called magic!!  

[edinburgh_1992]

Is this a Bartlett finally? Seems to be in the right position and not shifting much from there either. 
 

I wouldn’t even mind cold zonality, at least it is usually quite long lasting and can deliver snow, especially here in Scotland. Early February 2020 was great. 
 

But with high pressure pushing north from Spain, anything other than very mild, wet and windy, is extremely unlikely. 
 

And for those that say these are normal Synoptics for our country, they are not. The temperatures are predicted to be about 5 degrees above average. 

[BarometerCat]

Average temps on GFS ens do trend mild after 29th  

this IMBY

 

for now.....

 

 

[That ECM]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Well there are positives from this episode

ICON renews it’s claim to be respected 

GEM reminds us that it’s no better than gfs 

Ukmo loses its claim to be the prime arbiter at day 4/5 

ecm (and the eps) stand out as the gold standard in the period days 4/7. 

however, this was a complex evolution and a slight change here or there had big ramifications for our little island 

onto the next ‘amplification’……

And the gfs?

Hey, chingedy ching, hee haw, hee haw
It's GFS, the donkey
Chingedy ching, hee haw, hee haw
The USA Christmas donkey
La, la, la, la, la, la, la, la, la
La, la, la, la, la, la, ladioda

 

[DIS1970]

Hence the song, keep it up :-

 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

And the gfs?

 

It would be cruel to lambast it completely …..it just flaps around, day to day, like a fish in a net waiting to be thrown back ….

Would be better if it did it run to run cos at least then we’d know it didn’t have a clue. The way it edges it’s solution, run to run, makes it quite convincing! 

[Anthony Burden]

49 minutes ago, Nick F said:

I'm afraid there's probably some truth there. It seems the analogs and composites of the traditionally colder phases of MJO could be becoming obsolete with global warming, though it is possible that ENSO forcing (La Nina cold SST anomalies over central Pacific) is perhaps actively interfering with usual poleward wave forcing of the MJO over the western Pacific  where we get the phases that promote colder patterns in the mid-latitudes. Certainly seems to me that the Azores / Bermuda high pressure belts driven by the Hadley Cell are extending further northwards and forcing the Atlantic storm track further north in winter, perhaps aided by basin-wide anomalously warm N Atlantic SSTs. This make it harder to get cold polar air south into Europe.

However, we did still get some cold spells last winter with snow and I've been of the mind that it could be a back-loaded winter for 2021-22. Not only could the basin wide La Nina become more east-based, which tends to force more favourable patterns later in winter for cold than a basin wide La Nina, we may also see a SSW in January, given the SPV has been modelled at times to become a punch bag as we head into the New Year from warming on the Pacific and Atlantic side and also weakened from the effects of the descending eQBO.

Given the MJO forcing in colder phases seems to no longer work, or interfered with by La Nina, we may have to rely on a SSW and more favourable changes in ENSO forcing to get colder patterns to develop later in winter.

 

Morning Nick,yes after so much promise for a cold period given EQBO/MJO /LA-NINA for northern blocking to bring

an influence on U.K. weather,up pops the Iberian high to rule the roost.January may bring promise for cold lovers

but as you say global warming perhaps has started to influence are weather that much greater,still the proof will 

of course be in the pudding.

[Man With Beard]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Well there are positives from this episode

ICON renews it’s claim to be respected 

GEM reminds us that it’s no better than gfs 

Ukmo loses its claim to be the prime arbiter at day 4/5 

ecm (and the eps) stand out as the gold standard in the period days 4/7. 

however, this was a complex evolution and a slight change here or there had big ramifications for our little island 

onto the next ‘amplification’……

Yep, ECM was the closest once down to D5, after all.

Finally I can accept there's no way back from this morning, white Christmas is off sadly.

Sliders are a nightmare. It seemed for all the world that this was going to slide but it failed - by the skin of our teeth.

[karyo]

All the models look poor this morning but the ECM is particularly hard to swallow with the ominous rise of pressure over Iberia! We have seen this happen many times in recent years, this is a very stabborn high and the models are very good at handling it once it appears. 

The sun remains very active (www.spaceweather.com). In fact, solar activity in this cycle is exceeding the forecasts and it looks like we will reach solar maximum much quicker than first thought. This is particularly disappointing for me, because the last solar cycle gave us two good winters (2008/9 & 2009/10) and it looks like this one has failed to even give us one! 

 

[frosty ground]

2 hours ago, joggs said:

Yes lol. The weather apps have trumped the model's this last few days

The weather apps take raw data from the models, the data used is dependent on the model for each app.

 

of the apps got this right the models did, you’ve been chasing a phantom for the last few days.

very much a case of a dead parrot.

[Ruzzi]

New thread to start the next chase then? 

[Sceptical]

Just now, Ruzzi said:

New thread to start the next chase then? 

Great idea! 

Think we've had enough despair and post mortem analysis.

[frosty ground]

6 minutes ago, karyo said:

All the models look poor this morning but the ECM is particularly hard to swallow with the ominous rise of pressure over Iberia! We have seen this happen many times in recent years, this is a very stabborn high and the models are very good at handling it once it appears. 

The sun remains very active (www.spaceweather.com). In fact, solar activity in this cycle is exceeding the forecasts and it looks like we will reach solar maximum much quicker than first thought. This is particularly disappointing for me, because the last solar cycle gave us two good winters (2008/9 & 2009/10) and it looks like this one has failed to even give us one! 

 

The rise in pressure looks like a repeat of what we’ve just had. Pressure will eventually move north over the UK 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Yesterday, in a post that got removed, I said that  the ECM had possibly over-reacted to a change of  one of the parameters causing amplification (causing the HP to zoom up to Scandy) ahead of the pack, but the fact that it saw it earlie

Chapeau to the ECM  .   Probably

MIA

Edited December 23, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[Jeremy Shockey]

GFS 0z ensembles for Newcastle and Aberdeen

Somewhere ....in the North East of the country there is likely to be a white Christmas  .......sadly not for the South though.

[Battleground Snow]

Motivation at rock bottom to continue the chase today, but I'm sure we will be back when an eastlerly appears at day 10,

Nobody seems to have a conclusive answer to why the heights drained so fast from Greenland, that was the killer of the  touted cold spell, if the jet had remained to the south it would have kept Iberian heights at bay, at least for a while.

The gem does still have a transient snow event boxing day, but even this you would say is a rank outsider.

Enjoy Xmas guys

Edited December 23, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Nick F]

7 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Yesterday, in a post that got removed, I said that  the ECM had possibly over-reacted to a change of  one of the parameters causing amplification (causing the HP to zoom up to Scandy) ahead of the pack, but the fact that it saw it earlier than the 'pack'  means then it was clearly the best at handling the tricky situation.

Chapeau to the ECM

MIA

Yes, the EC doesn't flip-flop around inter-run like the other models do, particularly GFS. When it changes to a colder or milder outcome and sticks with it - you know it's generally more likely to be on the money if other models disagree. Though there are exceptions, such as March 2013. 

But it's also prudent to note too, following the last few weeks chase for cold, that when there is likelihood of blocking or +ve height wedges with a cold vs mild battleground over the UK, it best not to trust anything beyond T+96 for any finer detail for our small island.

Edited December 23, 2021 by Nick F