Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[pages]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes, a swing towards cold tonight...

00z runs should go a long way to resolving xmas day and boxing day ...

The arpege is good at t60 the ukmo is good the Gfs is moving towards them.

Would be funny if these  improved further on the next couple of runs, While the ECM still says no that would be nerve racking.

At such short range the distance between them is huge.

Those that been on here many years what is the closet time frame that there been such huge differences between the models i.e has there been times when we got as low as 48 hours out and still massive difference

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Notice the low digging into Portugal more on the 18z Mike?

Not sure, and they are both 18z runs.  At as early as T60, I’m probably focussing on the differences you can see without a magnifying glass!  Any which way, I’m sure the morning runs will find a way to tear it all apart tomorrow!  Night folks!

[northwestsnow]

Just now, pages said:

The arpege is good at t60 the ukmo is good the Gfs is moving towards them.

Would be funny if these  improved further on the next couple of runs, While the ECM still says no that would be nerve racking.

At such short range the distance between them is huge.

Those that been on here many years what is the closet time frame that there been such huge differences between the models i.e has there been times when we got as low as 48 hours out and still massive difference

18z seals the deal for me...

I'd expect a better set of GEFS 18Z too.

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Colder air sweeping south on 18z ...

 

Yep,and after this cold blip,...we chase the next one towards day ten

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, pages said:

The arpege is good at t60 the ukmo is good the Gfs is moving towards them.

Would be funny if these  improved further on the next couple of runs, While the ECM still says no that would be nerve racking.

At such short range the distance between them is huge.

Those that been on here many years what is the closet time frame that there been such huge differences between the models i.e has there been times when we got as low as 48 hours out and still massive difference

Aye, and this is going to be one of them!

[shunthebartlett92]

8 minutes ago, Nick F said:

The synoptic evolution looks good on 18z GFS up to 144hrs, but it's a shame the colder air with T850s below -5C isn't already entrenched further south than northern England when the fronts move in from the SW over the weekend and early next week.

So what falls will be mostly rain away from hills of N England and N Wales. But the easterly surface flow won't be mild as the BBC temps for next 10 days make out. But wouldn't rule out a few snow surprises for lower elevations of the Midlands, southern N England and North Wales if cold and dry enough air can undercut from the northeast.

This is a fair assessment I should think (not undermining you by any means) but really reinforces that it’s probably too much of an ask for widespread snow this weekend, but the odd surprise can’t be ruled out?

That said, here’s to morning upgrades!

[Anthony Burden]

Hi latest fax for Boxing Day showing occluded front over Northern England,a definite upgrade 

could well see some surprises yet for Christmas period fingers crossed.

[Kasim Awan]

7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Not sure, and they are both 18z runs.  At as early as T60, I’m probably focussing on the differences you can see without a magnifying glass!  Any which way, I’m sure the morning runs will find a way to tear it all apart tomorrow!  Night folks!

Low into North Portugal is 50 miles further south on Arpege 18z than it was on 12z.

[blizzard81]

I'm going to nail my colours to the mast. Ukmo is in the driving seat with these rare synoptics. Gfs has moved towards it in the 60hr mark tonight. Ecm is clinging on by the skin of its scrooge like teeth tonight. It will climbdown in the morning. Victory to the ukmo and gem. 

[Snowman.]

It appears we’re off to Scandi from D12 on the GFS. ECM also smelling the same coffee?

[Allseasons-Si]

I am watching the back door on this one,...1035 mb heights building over NW Scandi.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Maybe we are seeing the winter pan out.  It’s been cold today but the model flip flopping of extremes, and we are seeing extreme boundaries, is this the winter ahead?  I still have a Scandi HP for early Jan deflecting LPs NW/SE axis over us before subsiding….and ‘major’ storm event end Jan into early Feb….big freeze will scupper it all

 

 BFTP

[ICE COLD]

Vortex being squeezed on gfs last few runs . Also looks like some more amplification coming around day 10 on the models . Very cold air to the north and east

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

It appears we’re off to Scandi from D12 on the GFS. ECM also smelling the same coffee?

Think the ECM spilt its coffee a bit before that!

[Man With Beard]

6 minutes ago, pages said:

The arpege is good at t60 the ukmo is good the Gfs is moving towards them.

Would be funny if these  improved further on the next couple of runs, While the ECM still says no that would be nerve racking.

At such short range the distance between them is huge.

Those that been on here many years what is the closet time frame that there been such huge differences between the models i.e has there been times when we got as low as 48 hours out and still massive difference

Been watching for 20 years and I can't remember thinking most of today's models will be proven wrong at T60, owing to the fact they are all different.

Only once, I think in 2006, can I remember a massive shift at T72, where all models backtracked on what looked a certain snow event to such an extent that they switched to westerlies.

[northwestsnow]

Don't know if anyone noticed but Xmas day is very cold ,especially in the North - 

In Scotland there will be some stunning scenes ..

❤

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Think the ECM spilt its coffee a bit before that!

It may be incorrect early but I have more belief in what happens after the beginning of next week than this Saturday!

Cant shake the feeling that Scandi heights are inbound. A lingering Jet with low pressure to our South East 18z and 12z ECM both looked decent to give it a good attempt of building a substantial block. 

[Kasim Awan]

Anyone else setting alarm for 04.30

[Had Worse]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

Anyone else setting alarm for 04.30

No. It will be there to look at when mine goes off at 7am lol.

[blizzard81]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

Anyone else setting alarm for 04.30

Nah! I love my lays ins at this time of year. I will view at about 9am to see ecm have scrambled breakfast egg on its face

[Nick F]

Scotland and the far north of England stay cold, with T850s staying sub -5C from Christmas Day right through to New Years Day. No complaints from coldies there. 

6 minutes ago, shunthebartlett92 said:

This is a fair assessment I should think (not undermining you by any means) but really reinforces that it’s probably too much of an ask for widespread snow this weekend, but the odd surprise can’t be ruled out?

That said, here’s to morning upgrades!

There's probably still scope for the fronts and their rain bands to adjust further south in how far north they advance. But the cold air to the north appears to be more reluctant to follow suit in adjusting further south too. We need this cold and dry air to undercut the frontal precip to get the snow level down, but so far it seems the cold enough air doesn't wanna engage the fronts, rather milder air is undercutting the fronts from the SW. 

But we can only go by the model predictions, on the day it may not play out how they predict, hence the nice surprises some can get, particularly if cold and dry air is more advanced in southward movement and precipitation heavier than models predict.

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Had Worse said:

No. It will be there to look at when mine goes off at 7am lol.

Reckon there’ll be 200+ posts by then.  But you don’t have to read them all.  

[Allseasons-Si]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

Anyone else setting alarm for 04.30

Yeh,...for 4:30 pm lol,did a backtrack at work this morning i am knacked,finished work at 10 last night and did a 6-2 today for a final day at work so a good lie in tomorrow

just need the grumpy ECM to come crawling kicking and screaming in the morning then we are good.

[Spah1]

4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Anyone else setting alarm for 04.30

I’m really not that sure what we are hoping or looking for anymore. 
 

it’s going to be a bit nippy and some places may get a bit of snow if you live up a big hill. 
 

next

[Don]

4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Anyone else setting alarm for 04.30

No I'm not! 

I'll be dreaming at that time of waking up to a foot of snow!