SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[lassie23]

21.5c still here

[clark3r]

I take it the met office and bbc are not following the gfs, for example for the region metoffice give a high of 36 tomorrow, gfs shows 39, and 40 on Tuesday, bbc show hottest day Monday and not as Tuesday, 2nd point i live on the coast which met office and bbc shows 30/31 following gfs this still looks incorrect, I will be very interested to see how this pans out here on the coast 

[Blessed Weather]

Here we go then, with the plume of hot air arriving over the UK later today to give a couple of days of extreme heat. Today bearable, peaking in the low 30C's, but Monday and Tuesday will be something else as 850hPa air of 25C (the dark red colour in the sequence) moves over us to give surface temps closer to 40C. The Met Office now giving an 80% chance of somewhere beating the 38.7C record set in Cambridge in 2019.

GFS 850hPa temps Sun - Wed morning:

2m temps 17.00 Mon:  Tues:

[Captain Shortwave]

So a slight snag this morning towards the north west of the region, there is more cloud than initially expected thanks to a front being a bit more extensive than most models forecast (Only the UKMO had rain over the Midlands first thing).

However any cloud should clear and break up to leave long spells of hazy sunshine. Winds will generally be between the south and south west. 
 

Temperatures - 30-32c, the highest temperatures across Cambridgeshire. A 33c cannot be ruled out and a value I am looking to see if we will hit, this upper value would also push past our current high set in June.

The UKV gives highs of 39c tomorrow and 41c on Monday, the highest chance again towards Cambridgeshire, however on Tuesday 40c could be reached in any of the counties in our region (away from coasts with onshore breezes, though even here temperatures will remain hot because the sea will only moderate temperatures so much).

Edited July 17, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[slater]

4 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

So a slight snag this morning towards the north west of the region, there is more cloud than initially expected thanks to a front being a bit more extensive than most models forecast (Only the UKMO had rain over the Midlands first thing).

However any cloud should clear and break up to leave long spells of hazy sunshine. Winds will generally be between the south and south west. 
 

Temperatures - 30-32c, the highest temperatures across Cambridgeshire. A 33c cannot be ruled out and a value I am looking to see if we will hit, this upper value would also push past our current high set in June.

We also have unexpected cloud this morning with a surprising breeze , currently 18.6c at 8.30, Just taken the dog out and was very pleasant…Will be interesting to see if cloud cover Monday Tuesday will make an unexpected appearance..Also local radio have said Wednesday could hit 30c in this part of Norfolk, with only a small chance of a shower

[lottiekent]

Morning

Down to 13.6c overnight! Lovely

Now 19.6c with unbroken sunshine and little to no breeze - the MO is showing a high of 23c here today which of course will be breached. 

36 minutes ago, clark3r said:

I take it the met office and bbc are not following the gfs, for example for the region metoffice give a high of 36 tomorrow, gfs shows 39, and 40 on Tuesday, bbc show hottest day Monday and not as Tuesday, 2nd point i live on the coast which met office and bbc shows 30/31 following gfs this still looks incorrect, I will be very interested to see how this pans out here on the coast 

Same here - they always underestimate the temperatures for us, in the record breaking spell of 2020 we were way over predictions 

[Captain Shortwave]

11 minutes ago, slater said:

We also have unexpected cloud this morning with a surprising breeze , currently 18.6c at 8.30, Just taken the dog out and was very pleasant…Will be interesting to see if cloud cover Monday Tuesday will make an unexpected appearance..Also local radio have said Wednesday could hit 30c in this part of Norfolk, with only a small chance of a shower

Tomorrow looks pretty clear on all models and so does Tuesday for a good part of the day. The track of the low currently west of Portugal is still uncertain, some take this south of the U.K. and are slower with its approach to the point where most of the England pushes towards 100F, however others are still quicker and restrict the heat towards the east (Though still fine for us… or not depending on your preferences).

Rainfall looks pretty limited later on Tuesday, just a couple of scattered showers. Wednesday looks a little more active with a showery trough moving east during the day.

[Eagle Eye]

Heat low is a little bit too slow compared to the models, which might slow down the temperature development today but increase the 'potential' for significant heat on Tuesday.

[Blessed Weather]

Yes, Arpege suggesting cloud cover will have little/no impact on Mon/Tues. Forecasts for 15.00 each day (black is clear sky):

Mon:  Tues:

[sunnijim]

Temperature predictions for my part of the South Coast have been ticking up over the last few days.

We started at 28c for Monday and Tuesday we are now showing 31c via Met Office.

The more Easterly we can get rather than Southeasterly will aid the high temperatures here with a cut off of the sea track.

Ideally a modified NE flow would see us in the game for 40c!

Still time for slight adjustments to the position of the Iberian heat low.

[Long haul to mild]

Interesting difference between the Met Office and BBC forecasts for my location, with the Met going for a hotter day Monday and then a little less hot on Tuesday, whereas BBC suggesting less tomorrow but then hotter on Tuesday! Wonder who will be correct?

 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Central parts of East Anglia are currently leading the pack today, 25C at 10am at Mildenhall and Lakenheath Air-force bases.

Edited July 17, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[Kent Blizzard]

1 hour ago, Captain Shortwave said:

. Wednesday looks a little more active with a showery trough moving east during the day.

Chance of a decent storm with monsoon rain please?

[Hammer]

Currently 25C at just after 10am. Meto and BBC say I will get no higher than 30C today. Let's see. 

[Mizzle]

About 2C ahead of the curve here in NE Hants. Just reach 26C and MetO had us down for that temp at midday.

[Hammer]

Actually now reporting 26C here before 11am. Beautiful weather.

[Hammer]

2 hours ago, Hammer said:

Currently 25C at just after 10am. Meto and BBC say I will get no higher than 30C today. Let's see. 

Just ticked over to 29C at 12:45 here.  I am sure we move above the 30C predicted today. 

[Polaris]

Very milky skies here. Temp 27c 

The non existence of bright blue skies in summer continue. 

[slater]

10 minutes ago, Polaris said:

Very milky skies here. Temp 27c 

The non existence of bright blue skies in summer continue. 

Same here, all of a sudden the clear blues skies have gone, very hazy and not even bright , well strange ,

[Mizzle]

My garden based weather station is reporting 29.8 - rural site. MetO forecast 28C max. 

[MAF]

29.9 here in the shady back garden. but just out of the car and it was 32 whilst driving here in SE london

[sunnijim]

Milky sky here in London making for a pretty hazy sun,might be knocking a couple of degrees off maximums today.

[Polaris]

Here now, I miss the blue skies we had back in the 80’s 

[Captain Shortwave]

30c back home, currently in South Essex and there is actually some mid level convection developing. I wouldn’t have thought there would be enough to create showers but obviously that stuff is much thicker than the surrounding high cloud.

[MAF]

1 hour ago, MAF said:

29.9 here in the shady back garden. but just out of the car and it was 32 whilst driving here in SE london

an hour later and 31.5 here. still shady as the sun has not come round fully into the garden. high cloud though seems to be tempering the strength of the sun