SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[Methuselah]

Well, here, it's the usual story: Nothing to the east; nothing to the west; nothing to the south, and nothing to the north! 

[BLS]

I think Kent will see some snow over night and rush hour tomorrow as will most places and then the same for tomorrow evening.

In my opinion don’t worry what the met office and BBC weather symbols are saying in my experience they always stay as rain or sleet until 2/3 hours before the snow arrives and then change.

Ignore the most recent Icon run moving Wednesday night north, I’m pretty sure that will drop it south again!

The models to Watch are the UKV, Arome and ARPEGE 2 of 3 of which seem to be in agreement for most of us to see laying snow tomorrow.

 

GFS and ECM are also on bored which is good  

[Tn9]

I see snow falling in Sidcup from a heavy shower about half one you could see it streaming out of the cloud ..but oh to be 2000 ft higher lol 

[Tn9]

1 hour ago, Freeze said:

The south coast seems to have been stuck under this front for an eternity it just doesn't want to push through, I doubt it truly will tbh. I feel I won't have any chance to see a few flakes falling although seeing the sun would be a nice second prize. 

Well there it is.. the back end of it just coming over Eltham..couple hours too you then  gone ..

Edited March 7, 2023 by TN9

[throwoff]

Looking at the latest met office I’m not feeling it for overnight now.

I got a strong suspicion we are in for rain.

[Kent Blizzard]

20 minutes ago, throwoff said:

Looking at the latest met office I’m not feeling it for overnight now.

I got a strong suspicion we are in for rain.

I wouldn't worry what they show at this stage, outskirts of Maidstone had 2 to 3 heavy(ish) snow flurries  Between 12 and 3 this afternoon, App said cloud!! 

Respectable 20p sized flakes....just a bit wettish 

 

 

 

 

[Wilko999]

29 minutes ago, throwoff said:

Looking at the latest met office I’m not feeling it for overnight now.

I got a strong suspicion we are in for rain.

I agree, only rain, not cold enough for any snow.

 

[SLEETY]

No snow I reckon, doesn't even feel cold and mosquitos are flying around

Where are these deep-cold easterlies the SE used to get with Kent East Anglia in particular buried in the stuff, this is nothing in comparison 

Edited March 7, 2023 by SLEETY

[Londonweymouth]

Don’t expect any snow here tbh, still don’t feel as cold as it did in December for example, and anything that settles will be washed away pretty quickly 

[East Kent Snow Desert]

2 hours ago, Jamie M said:

Exactly what I was thinking, it's good the Estuary hasn't killed off all of the potential for falling snow so we might be alright somewhat. You're definitely getting a better shout in Herne though than me a bit closer to the town centre 

Yep, a mile or so inland and a little elevation does seem to make quite a difference in these marginal situations. Not long to find out I guess. 

[throwoff]

16 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

I wouldn't worry what they show at this stage, outskirts of Maidstone had 2 to 3 heavy(ish) snow flurries  Between 12 and 3 this afternoon, App said cloud!! 

Respectable 20p sized flakes....just a bit wettish 

 

 

 

 

Just can’t see it myself

[East Kent Snow Desert]

Those talking about temps not feeling low enough for snow need to remember that the precipitation when it arrives will drag these temps lower which will increase liklihood of white not wet

[Hotspur62]

Another raw day here with light rain/sleet this morning into the afternoon and the skies started to clear about 4ish.Temperature peaked here at 4.6 but has dropped to 2.6 now.

 

Dropped into Mod Thread and what a state of confusion !!Even the models can’t agree on the overnight precipitation starting from 1-2 am let alone Thursday and Friday.If I had to take a guess for overnight I would say those west or north west of London will see snow(Oxfordshire/bucks and higher parts of Surrey & Hampshire),those to south and east (Kent ,Essex,both Sussex’s and Suffolk) elevation will be key to any settling snow(over 400ft asl) and those North of London again will hopefully see snow(again the caveat being elevation) and also we need to take into account how far north this system goes(the models differ on this as well!).It’s a right old Fred Karno.Hopefully I am wrong and temperatures fall quick this evening so that if and when the precipitation arrives we all in the SE thread get a good coveringThere is still interest Wednesday evening into Thursday morning,especially for those north and west of the region but that is for another day.

Good luck to everyone with regards to getting some “white gold” and don’t forget to send in the pictures if we strike lucky

[snowrye]

19 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

No snow I reckon, doesn't even feel cold and mosquitos are flying around

Where are these deep-cold easterlies the SE used to get with Kent East Anglia in particular buried in the stuff, this is nothing in comparison 

Seems to be getting increasingly difficult, to get anything like that now. The climate has, and is definitely changing 

[SLEETY]

Surely  at 800ft on the South downs can get some snow, I can drive there in 10 mins if not time to jack this hobby in. 

[Hotspur62]

Just dived into MAD thread again(couldn’t help myself) and although in weather terms it’s a long way off every system seems to be shifting southwards for Thursday and Friday.I reckon North herts,Oxfordshire ,Buckinghamshire and Bedfordshire could be the snow winners in this weeks Snow drama!tbc….

[SLEETY]

Yes the models have been Woeful in tracking down the path these low pressure systems are going to take, ukmo the worst, its been useless 

[SHM040519]

Well models tonight (ECM) even take Thursdays snow further south. God knows. Seems to be a complete nowcast 

[Mark wheeler]

1 minute ago, SHM040519 said:

Well models tonight (ECM) even take Thursdays snow further south. God knows. Seems to be a complete nowcast 

Quietly hoping For another shift south tomorrow. I dare not say anything in the mad thread , I will pounced upon

[WheresTheSnow]

I’m surprised it’s not more busy in here with the short term upgrades with the snow tomorrow, seems we all have a great chance tomorrow looking at the ECM. 

[SHM040519]

3 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Quietly hoping For another shift south tomorrow. I dare not say anything in the mad thread , I will pounced upon

Amazing how cocky they’ve been in there! I hope it slides and slides. All about IMBY in that thread! 

[Mcconnor8]

Does tonight's system moving in look more North on the radar than modelled to anybody else?

[Hotspur62]

16 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Quietly hoping For another shift south tomorrow. I dare not say anything in the mad thread , I will pounced upon

Yes I very rarely post in there as you can get pounced upon!!Agree just another 75mile southward shift should just about do it for us in the SE Thread

Edited March 7, 2023 by Hotspur62

[lewis028]

This is going down to a nowcasting event as it pretty much always is with snow, I wouldn’t hang everything on every single model run. All eyes now on the radar watching the track..Good luck to all, il be driving to work near city airport around 5am watching with caution..and hopefully turning back around

Edited March 7, 2023 by lewis028

[BLS]

4 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Does tonight's system moving in look more North on the radar than modelled to anybody else?

I think it seems a tad south and flatter regarding tonight’s system