SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[Blessed Weather]

Nice storm going through atm with frequent lightning and heavy rain. EA doing well with several organised areas of activity.

12.10

[Norfolk Sheep]

Back out of hibernation yay!

Apparently there were some flashes and bangs at home, but as I wasn't there I probably missed the only storm we'll get this year!

[Methuselah]

19 minutes ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

Back out of hibernation yay!

Apparently there were some flashes and bangs at home, but as I wasn't there I probably missed the only storm we'll get this year!

Welcome back, NS. I've just heard my first thunderclap! 

[Dami]

Hubs has reported thunder. i didn't hear any inside

[Tn9]

2 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

Nice storm going through atm with frequent lightning and heavy rain. EA doing well with several organised areas of activity.

12.10

Nothing here not even a dollop:(

[Freeze]

Nice sunny day here a few whispy clouds around but no showers in sight. Fairly warm aswell at 16c .

[Blessed Weather]

3 minutes ago, TN9 said:

Nothing here not even a dollop:(

No, looking like Kent will be a storm-free zone today. Never mind, it's making up for all the times I've looked with jealously as you guys enjoy imported storms from France that never make it as far as here.

[Norfolk Sheep]

Just had another pretty active storm pass by, I've probably heard and seen more thunder and lightning from that than the whole of 2022 (and possibly 2021!) 

Attleborough has just had a LOT of rain.....

[Blessed Weather]

The day that just kept giving here. Yet another storm with plenty of lightning and torrential rain, even some pea size hail. This radar grab at 18.50 has my location somewhere under the storm (the big one to the right):

[Harry's House]

Dry day here with impressive cumulus congestus inland. Although we missed out on the storms by a big margin, the fine evening was welcome for our church barbecue. 

[Wivenswold]

Pretty good past 12 hours considering we've yet to see a warm summer day yet. 

Only got the edge of the Colchester storm but it was nice to sit in the garden and listen to thunder for the first time this year. The Suffolk storms were agonisingly close. Family about 8 miles north of us were treated to 3 storms in total with some superb lightning and constant loud thunder, such are the margins on days like this.  

[lottiekent]

Friday ended up being a better day than expected, sunny despite the MO forecast of mostly cloud. 

Had a look back on when I first hit 20c on my weather station in this house (moved November 2019) and apart from 2020 when we had a very warm start to spring, it’s been later than I thought:

2020 8th April(!) = 22.5c

2021 28th May = 20.1c

2022 15th May = 22c

2023 = not yet, highest 19.7c on 3rd May

Does anyone else have similar stats to share?

[alexisj9]

Sun is about here today from time to time  

[Snowangel-MK]

On 02/05/2023 at 09:03, MAF said:

things ramping up here in Westminster, lots of BBC outside broadcast lorries parked up around the abbey and houses of parliament and parliament green has been re-turfed and looks splendid again, unlike the patch of mud it looked like a week ago.

Yesterday was a day of splendour that brought the world’s eyes to our wonderful country to marvel in the spectacle of history being relived in the symbolism of the ceremony and the beauty of our regalia, such a shame the weather decided to be so typically British 

Today however we have been typically British and enjoyed cream tea in the garden (and before anyone comments the jam & cream on the scones are the correct way round according to how they are served at Buckingham palace) 

[Summer tyre]

3 hours ago, Snowangel-MK said:

Yesterday was a day of splendour that brought the world’s eyes to our wonderful country to marvel in the spectacle of history being relived in the symbolism of the ceremony and the beauty of our regalia, such a shame the weather decided to be so typically British 

Today however we have been typically British and enjoyed cream tea in the garden (and before anyone comments the jam & cream on the scones are the correct way round according to how they are served at Buckingham palace) 

Of course! Who was the last Duke of Cornwall?

[Blessed Weather]

Really muggy this morning with the temp up to 16C by 10 am. But it then plateaued and didn't get any higher as the sky clouded over, although today's rain band did a great job of fizzling out as it moved across the Region. Despite the radar saying there should be some light rain, nothing reached the ground here and in fact its just starting to brighten up a bit.

Looking at the radar there's an impressive area of rain in the western approaches which is forecast to give us some heavy overnight rainfall tonight.

Radar 14.25

[Summer tyre]

Horribly dull and indifferent day here. It was so gloomy I couldn't see properly inside the house after about 4pm and while we have just had spits and spots of rain that haven't troubled the rainfall recorder, the cloud has been almost full cover all day. Top temperature a laughable 14.0 deg C, dank conditions making it feel a lot colder.

[Eagle Eye]

Convective Outlook ️

On the western tip of a moisture tongue, a PV lobe along a shortwave trough will act as a forcing for either clustering pulse-storms or a weak squall line. This will depend on the exact maxima of the forcing.

If we assume a squall line forms then it'll move in the direction of highest MUCAPE and if we assume pulse-storms then they will form strongest potentially in areas of highest CAPE-kinematics forcing. A moderate has been issued in that area based off CAM guidance. Convection depth appears to be about 9KM in these areas but will be increased by kinematics so a low-end moderate has been issued. SBCAPE in excess of 1000 J/KG appears possible in areas and with the tallest storms, they may create other storms from their gravity waves so clustering of frequent lightning in the area of tallest storms is plausible. However, its difficult to forecast those.

Some quite bouyant air parcels around London area are most likely to force these strongest storms and that's certainly right in the middle of our moderate risk but that's purely based off GFS. Some could be similar to Fridays storms in terms of strength if they can get close to maximising CAPE availability.

Some hail is possible given supportive LLLR's and slightly supportive hodos with decent below zero CAPE but that will be nowhere near maximised given little to no support for Supercells. Therefore non-severe hail is certainly possible but above 2cm is extremely unlikely. Cloud heights are quite low for hail as well in most (but not all) areas.

Similar risk in Ireland with surface heating but less forcing and strength of CAPE therefore its only a slight risk. Lightning there should only really be sparodic.

So occasionally frequent lighting, small hail and torrential rainfall is possible. Non-severe wind gusts may occur as well.

[Harry's House]

7 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

Really muggy this morning with the temp up to 16C by 10 am. But it then plateaued and didn't get any higher as the sky clouded over, although today's rain band did a great job of fizzling out as it moved across the Region. Despite the radar saying there should be some light rain, nothing reached the ground here and in fact its just starting to brighten up a bit.

Looking at the radar there's an impressive area of rain in the western approaches which is forecast to give us some heavy overnight rainfall tonight.

Radar 14.25

Raining properly now. Earlier this evening, I half expected to get really wet when out with my running club, but thankfully we had just a little drizzly rain.

[Tn9]

On 05/05/2023 at 15:30, Blessed Weather said:

No, looking like Kent will be a storm-free zone today. Never mind, it's making up for all the times I've looked with jealously as you guys enjoy imported storms from France that never make it as far as here.

Elevated mostly blessed ..least you get surface based beauty's..and your flat as a pancake over in East anglia..you can see for miles in any direction lol ..but this is something people should look at ....in the sky you can see .. and everything happens relatively quickly ...not so underwater 

1600-Feet Giant Underwater Waves: The Hidden Players in Ocean Heat and Carbon Storage

SCITECHDAILY.COM

---

New research has revealed that underwater waves, some towering as high as 500 meters, located deep below the ocean surface, play a crucial role in the...

 

[Blessed Weather]

8 hours ago, TN9 said:

Elevated mostly blessed ..least you get surface based beauty's..and your flat as a pancake over in East anglia..you can see for miles in any direction lol ..but this is something people should look at ....in the sky you can see .. and everything happens relatively quickly ...not so underwater 

1600-Feet Giant Underwater Waves: The Hidden Players in Ocean Heat and Carbon Storage

SCITECHDAILY.COM

---

New research has revealed that underwater waves, some towering as high as 500 meters, located deep below the ocean surface, play a crucial role in the...

 

Interesting research article TN, thanks. The SciTechDaily website is a bit of a nightmare wrt to ads and pop-ups so I found the Cambridge University Research summary article here and the full research paper here (which I've also added to the Netweather Research Library here where there are other research papers on the AMOC).

[lottiekent]

Dull and cool here this morning, do we not need some sunny spells to trigger the storms later on?

[Blessed Weather]

Late afternoon/evening today could be very interesting. Here's the forecast from Arome for 19.00, suggesting most of the heavy showers will be north of the M4 line:

And homing in on East Anglia, this from Dan Holley, Weatherquest:

 

[Blessed Weather]

This tweet from Nick F. For storm lovers hopefully the "60% risk" zone is on the money as it suggests more of the Region might see some action later:

 

[VillagePlank]

For us in the far S/E, the most unstable time according to GFS 6z is 6pm,

A moderately convective atmosphere leading to isolated severe storms. Sufficient surface heating, perhaps as low as 17degC, allows parcels to go all the way up ....

Of course, "isolated" means that everyone else but you will get storms

Happy hunting!