SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[Reefseeker]

Some lovely skies circling Surbiton tonight but the storms seem to be passing us to the north and south. 

[Eagle Eye]

Convective Outlook ️

Moderately thick instability and useful kinematic forcings may force showers and thunderstorms along the eastern area of England. These may cluster up at times due to a PV lobe maxima but hard to pick a specific area.

There may be some small hail but generally its not overly favourable. Plus over saturated profiles may decrease strength of a lot of storms. Therefore we have held it to a slight risk without an AOI.

Mostly lightning should stay fairly sporadic. If a storm can stay in a weaker saturated area then lightning may become frequent for a time but that area is small and air parcels probably aren't going to make the most of available CAPE for really tall storms to form so mostly weaker storms likely.

[alexisj9]

All thunderissed Dover lol.

[Reefseeker]

It's been a lovely sunny morning, so I'm hoping we might get some storms this afternoon following yesterday's convection giving us a miss.

[Tn9]

My happy place looking over from Wrotham south ..but not a lot going on but ill keep you posted ..it all seems a tad south Tonbridge or Tunbridge Wells way ..I should stay still ide be laughing ..but work mucks that up ..:( 

Ps ill look to the radar it will give me an idea ..

Edited May 10, 2023 by TN9

[Tn9]

Actually now looking at radar further south than Tunbridge Wells....but thats what it looks like  from up here in Wrotham...

 

The chinook is going to Mereworth i know ..he thought s*d that ill fly round it ..:)

Edited May 10, 2023 by TN9

[Tn9]

Another couple of beauties up wind ..some one must be  having it  somewhere ..

[Neilsouth]

Big storm forming just west of Manston Airport - Kent

[Tn9]

2 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

Big storm forming just west of Manston Airport - Kent

Pictures Neil pictures...but your Whitstable...Canterbury way aren't you ..thats why chasing in the states is good..1 .. is obviously its primed ..2  flat ..3 criss cross roads ..I know you need your wit's about you, but imagine a dirty great tornado popping over the hill at Sevenoaks barrelling down on  you ..your stuck in the Swanley traffic on M25 can't move trying  to get over or under really the Dartford crossing..no not good..:)

[andymcpool]

Angry skies in SW12

[Vortex3929]

Few rumbles of thunder here again. 2 days in a row.

[alexisj9]

So far only rain showers here, further north looked to have a good storm, I'd expect hail too from how heavy the core looked 

[Tn9]

1 hour ago, UKSnakey said:

Few rumbles of thunder here again. 2 days in a row.

Cor your lucky I've a couple of beauties either side of me (not girls either ) but it never even rained here... 

[Summer tyre]

This scudded across north of us right on the coast.

[Eagle Eye]

Convective Outlook

 

Along a bouyant airflow, strong CAPE in pockets is possible and up to 1200 J/KG in pockets. Fairly tall storms given good lift and forcing kinematics are likely to form into a broken MCS or clusters with frequent lightning for a time for the east and central to southern England especially. The shearing is what's stopping full clustering up despite being along a PV maxima with high vertical vorticity.

 

A similar situation in Ireland as well with strongly forced storms. Clusters and maybe a weak squall/MCS are fairly likely along the eastern coast organising with frequent lightning for a time. Generally Ireland has shallower cloud heights so will be relying on parcels remaining parallel to storm advance.

 

These being forced along PV lobes with convergence moving generally SE'wards in England's case and S'wards in Ireland's case. Generally well forced and parallel air parcels will mean that CAPE buildup/entrainment CAPE could remain quite high despite thin air parcel temperature maxima relative to the environment its in.

 

Increasing moisture and PWAT run the risk of flooding specifically in areas already hit by a lot of rain and that has been surrounded by a severe. Fairly steep lapse-rates may mean that small to 1-1.5cm hail may be plausible but there is basically no support for any larger hail.

Also, here's the stuff I got today, well some of it anyway.

 

[Tn9]

We here in Tonbridge ..Maidstone ish ..are having a low cloud intrusion from the  north north east off sea i guessing but to the south I can see  a few blues skies ..so further west the cz I think ..because its a little more intrusive than the general direction ..I could be wrong and by golly I hope I am 

[Tn9]

1 hour ago, TN9 said:

We here in Tonbridge ..Maidstone ish ..are having a low cloud intrusion from the  north north east off sea i guessing but to the south I can see  a few blues skies ..so further west the cz I think ..because its a little more intrusive than the general direction ..I could be wrong and by golly I hope I am 

I'm gonna say im wrong ...I've  come north not super North..but Snodland ..suns out its  hoting up .so I reckon same again ..like yesterday .. same storm snow tyre posted i see the same line .. but north side ..so as kents a peninsula you got loads of cz s  east..  south ..then north east ..its which is strongest  ..850 odd winds .....bobs your uncle though ..because upper winds are as slack as might be still ..which to us here is bonus ..:)

[Tn9]

I know your gonna think  im mad ...like most people do ..but ..I had this ...I let three balloons  tied together  so with. helium has  so much lift ..it went straight up no direction till it hit and I lost it  at  first in   lowish.cloud ..got binoculars out ..like a little dot it was (im guessing height) 3000 odd feet it took off..south east ..and the storms yesterday followed that balloon (at a slower pace obviously ) same way 

Edited May 11, 2023 by TN9

[Blessed Weather]

No storms in this location yesterday, but today's sky now filling with wannabe storms that will hopefully perform later.

11 ish 

[Tn9]

Here we go the difference....this is Snodland ...

 

 

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, TN9 said:

Here we go the difference....this is Snodland ...

 

Are you chasing, if so big storm to my north, although for later west is best.

[Blessed Weather]

The earlier wannabes certainly did develop and this one gave a decent storm just to the east of Hadleigh at around 12.35:

 

[Eagle Eye]

1 hour ago, Blessed Weather said:

The earlier wannabes certainly did develop and this one gave a decent storm just to the east of Hadleigh at around 12.35:

 

Little bit here in the south east to eventually get off my camera. Got a lightning strike but didn't show up on video because my phone was placed too low and it was hidden by trees. A few inches higher and I would've got it annoyingly. Didn't take my phone to this part of the chase though.

Edited May 11, 2023 by Eagle Eye

[Tn9]

Got over me at home can't believe it 6 miles north suns out ...

Just now, TN9 said:

Got storm over me hail the full monty  at home... can't believe it 6 miles north suns out ...

 

[Mizzle]

Doesn't look much but just had a crack of thunder from this, and according to my lightning tracker, a couple of strikes near Farnham. Quite unexpected today.