Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021

[swfc]

15 minutes ago, LRD said:

Thrilling. Utterly thrilling

Building blocks, small acorns and it will be dry with maybe a 384 hr potential

Edited January 2, 2022 by swfc

[Tim Bland]

Look towards Greenland…I can see the Tip poking out (That’s what she said ) 

[swfc]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Look towards Greenland…I can see the Tip poking out (That’s what she said ) 

Could be on the "cusp" of something here.

[Kasim Awan]

Good agreement this evening for a build in pressure from the south around day 8-10. This can lead to better places, however we've already been there in mid December and the vortex stomped out any decent attempt at advances.

Also worth pointing out the fact that after some dabbling it's evident that in the CET history there is no example of a colder than avg Jan/Feb combined period following a mild Sep (top 10% percentile) and a Dec C.E.T amply above avg/ 5.0. There are however occurrences of a colder than avg Jan/Feb following mild instances of other months, as per the attached plot. This suggests that the Sep & Dec mild combo has a stronger link with zonal westerlies - compared to other months & Dec.

Edited January 2, 2022 by Kasim Awan

[Tim Bland]

Good new is that the bottled up cold is escaping.. bad news is it’s towards U.S.A and East Europe as usual .. 

[Don]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Good new is that the bottled up cold is escaping.. bad news is it’s towards U.S.A and East Europe as usual .. 

Only good news if you're planning a trip to East Europe or the USA then!

[Tim Bland]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

Only good news if you're planning a trip to East Europe or the USA then!

Could be good long term if we can tap into the cold to our east. 

Edited January 2, 2022 by Tim Bland

[Ali1977]

Now if you fancy chasing a nice FI, this is one on the GFS

[swfc]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Now if you fancy chasing a nice FI, this is one on the GFS

Indeed, its got Jan 83 reflex all over that chart

[Mariescb]

32 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Right. Good luck with that.  And with a 66 percent chance of cold occuring if a ssw occurs   I'll take this week. It may not be great. But it will do me 

It should do for us all tbh. People get so caught up in begging and praying for an extreme cold event that they forget to ponder the consequences of how crippling(in so many ways with the current state of things) said event would be.

[weathercold]

43 minutes ago, LRD said:

Thrilling. Utterly thrilling

Building blocks look firmly in place

[Mapantz]

Please stick to model discussion..

If you think someone's post is in the wrong place, on the wind up, or anything that doesn't fit in here, use the report button. Don't post to try and moderate another member, you just add to the problem.

Moderators have been enjoying Christmas and new year, so there will be less of us about during that time, which means we don't always get to see what is going on in here. If you make a report, we get notified, and one of us can deal with it.

Please continue..

[E17boy]

As there has been a lot of talk about January in the posts today. I thought maybe this may be informative to some, not saying it’s hundred percent correct but may be an indication as to the general pattern that may pan out for this month. 

[damianslaw]

Yes way way out.. but interesting to note GFS18z showing also a pressure build from the south through mid month period which eventually moves to a position to bring more notable cold from the north.. 

[georgiedre]

Anyone following James peacock on twitter? 

https://twitter.com/peacockreports/status/1477732524084404231?s=20

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Im looking more for an early Feb SSW than anything at the moment.

Thing is we don't need one, trop and strat are not together, which is normally what we need a SSW for, it changes the strat, and then moves down to the trop, right now that connection is not there, might even be that an SSW does nothing at all to the trop, in this scenario, something is different this year.

Edited January 3, 2022 by alexisj9

[Ruzzi]

7 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Thing is we don't need one, trop and strat are not together, which is normally what we need a SSW for, it changes the trop, and then moves down to the strat, right now that connection is not there, might even be that an SSW does nothing at all to the strat, in this scenario, something is different this year.

Yeah I'm still pinning my hopes on a Sudden Tropospheric Warming.

[alexisj9]

3 minutes ago, Ruzzi said:

Yeah I'm still pinning my hopes on a Sudden Tropospheric Warming.

Oops wrong way around but still, I'm not sure an SSW will do anything, with the disconnect that we have, will edit.

[georgiedre]

6 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Oops wrong way around but still, I'm not sure an SSW will do anything, with the disconnect that we have, will edit.

With the disconnect still evident what if the tendency to show raging vortex is not accurate?  The link I sent on twitter sounds like there's some more topsy-turvy forecasts ahead what's your view ?

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Hi. First Post in here for a while. What is with the moaning on here. My giddy ant. Let's just relax and see what happens. People forget what happened just before Xmas with the downgrade of the cold and how quickly it changed. The models are very volatile this year. A lot can change in a very very short period of time. I'm wanting cold and snow like a lot in here but I'm not going to write winter off on the 3rd of Jan not a chance. To the models. And regarding ecm showing an easterly trying to set up yesterday. I have noticed over the years that the ecm can pick up a pattern at day 10 .get rid of it. Then pick it up a few days letter. It may do it this time. Regarding going forward in the hunt for cold. I reckon a few surprises could pop up at a very short time frame . Maybe 72/96hr. It's all still to play for. Have faith coldies. I certainly have.

[Nick2373]

6 hours ago, E17boy said:

As there has been a lot of talk about January in the posts today. I thought maybe this may be informative to some, not saying it’s hundred percent correct but may be an indication as to the general pattern that may pan out for this month. 

So basically a typical January then? Snow up North on hills, Rain below or above average cold snaps etc. so basically covering every typical UK default January setting.  
 

Don’t think you have to be professional to put that out, cover all eventually’s 

[KTtom]

Alot of chat about Strat, Trop coupling or not as the case may be. Not sure the relevence to be honest, when you have a chart like this (ecm day 8 you are a long way away from anything particularly wintry as the polor front retreats back north...maybe a hint of it drying up in the south which mirrors the Mets forecast and GFS...look foreward to see what the more optermistic posters can do with the overnight runs!

Edit day 10 has most of the UK in the dry settled theme.

  

Edited January 3, 2022 by KTtom

[carinthian]

Morning all. Based on this mornings runs , not an optomistic outlook. Looks like the a continuation of the very mild winter so far for most of Western Europe/ British Isles. Changes are shown for the middle of next week with a general build of high pressure . GFS , mild , dry theme but a bit more zonal up north. Looks like UKMO following that trend. ECM , mild high for most. GEM , the pick for coldies with more of a continental feed high pressure build. So all in all not good but still hopefully 10 days out is a long time away and still a possibility shown that the Scandinavian trough could drop into Europe and provide more exciting winter charts going forward, especially, if the developing build of pressure resets its mean position.

C

Edited January 3, 2022 by carinthian

[SLEETY]

Lack of posts tells its own story in here,no sign after a the next couple of days of anything remotely wintry,woeful performance by the models again,the idea of Pressure building out East and effecting UK has been wiped away by them,jet too strong again.

Always a chance though things will change,as the weathr models been so woeful the whole Winter not just recently.

Looking like late Winter early spring again,for Winter to start!

[IDO]

That MJO signal from last month seemingly, as per last winter, rather mute for any meridional flow and to be wary of hanging our hopes of cold on that variable going forward.

Looks like a repeating pattern of UK high as we enter the mid-jan period. D8-16 GFS op:

 

The control is similar and the mean heading in that direction. At this range, the core of the HP cell placement will determine what we get in terms of temps, but the last UK high was in situ so that would be my guess. Pretty average stuff unless that forecast high edges west; unlikely pre-mid-Jan due to troughing to our east, effectively a blocking pattern. With no forcing in the NH showing currently we are just seeing the natural state between systems and can be relatively confident in this status quo.