Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

I think the 00z gfs run can be binned, but Ecm carries on the theme as we say goodbye to January with the high sinking and the Atlantic awakening.  Probably a good step forward for coldies , A pattern change may result in February seeing plenty of Winter for some....

ECM option indeed shows something much more unsettled as we turn into a new month.. jetstream firing up and high sinking south. This seems likely way forward..  whilst the PV looks deep and menacing there is a signal it may shift east and allow digging of colder polar air further into north Atlantic to our NW.. we may engage some cold in the mix.. increasing chance of wintry precipitation in north/high ground at least. 

[Climate Man]

4 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

ECM option indeed shows something much more unsettled as we turn into a new month.. jetstream firing up and high sinking south. This seems likely way forward..  whilst the PV looks deep and menacing there is a signal it may shift east and allow digging of colder polar air further into north Atlantic to our NW.. we may engage some cold in the mix.. increasing chance of wintry precipitation in north/high ground at least. 

Yes hints there of a more standard setup, with cool/cold incursions certainly into the North. The South somewhat milder and potentially wetter than it has been but without ruling out joining in with the cold incursions. 

[mushymanrob]

14 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

10hpa SSW peaked on 23rd January 1963. Split the polar vortex. Pretty much nothing left of the vortex by the time the warming had finished. Could explain why the relaxing of the cold was so short lived before the big freeze came back.

There was also a Canadian SSW at 30hpa in November 1962 as well.

In response to all of you correcting me re SSW in 1963 ... fair play, i was using this chart which as you can see doesnt record a SSW in '63.

 

[That ECM]

Very different from its earlier run. Could be an interesting fi on this run.

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Very different from its earlier run. Could be an interesting fi on this run.

Yep, little ridge just forming into Greeny at T216 - similar to the ECM and GEM - so maybe a chance of PM coming 

[jules216]

1 hour ago, TSNWK said:

Thought you been quiet

It shows: 

1.negative NAO not necessary for cold here.

2. Also strong strat. Vortex not hurting.

3. Seasonal model hardly ever right for central Europe where cold and mild air masses usualy meet.

Here is my weather station data for temps. January. Since 06.01 interval +1/ -10. Even for my standards this is a 2 week cold spell.

Edited January 21, 2022 by jules216

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yep, little ridge just forming into Greeny at T216 - similar to the ECM and GEM - so maybe a chance of PM coming 

Ridging quite nicely at T222 - looks like it may be temporary though so not sure if it’ll produce the goods 

 

It looks like a non starter with a low blowing up from the eastern Atlantic

Edited January 21, 2022 by Ali1977

[Battleground Snow]

I still think this is our best chance of a shake up in the long term, 

The high pressure over the eastern hemisphere is constantly been moddled at range, if can drift over towards the pole and greenland to catch an Atlantic ridge to join up.

A long shot but something to watch.

 

Edited January 21, 2022 by Battleground Snow

[damianslaw]

9 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

I still think this is our best chance of a shake up in the long term, 

The high pressure over the eastern hemisphere is constantly been moddled at range, if can drift over towards the pole and greenland to catch an Atlantic ridge to join up.

A long shot but something to watch.

 

A far more interesting chart than many churned out over recent days.. PV not as cohesive and more amplification generally. 

[North-Easterly Blast]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

In response to all of you correcting me re SSW in 1963 ... fair play, i was using this chart which as you can see doesnt record a SSW in '63.

 

Out of that list I can only think of the Jan 2013, Jan 2009, Dec 1981 and Jan 1985 SSWs that brought a significant cold spell to the UK shortly after, and possibly Feb 2001 did have some HLB and a northerly spell late in the month.  I can also think of mid Feb 2018 that is not on the list.  There was one in Feb 1979 but the big freeze that year had been going on since the end of Dec 1978, so it was not a factor in bringing the freeze up that year.  There is one listed in Feb 2010 but there had been significant cold before then in that year.  

Edited January 21, 2022 by North-Easterly Blast

[Singularity]

You know, it really intrigues me that even with the polar vortex flexing its muscles and tropical forcing heading through a more La Nina-like phase, the models are continuing to put out charts that aren't classic +NAO, zonal flow situations, even in the 12-16 day range when that sort of thing is usually expressed very readily.

Of the 00z runs, the ECM was the closest and even that had the polar vortex imprint focusing to our NE as of D10.

The 06z GFS has reverted to a fully HP-dominated outlook, with no breakdown from D12, and in the late stages has charts that wouldn't look out of place in April. The very compact nature of the cold trough around Greenland seems out of place for early February. The cut-off low less so, but still not a common sight without a high-latitude blocking pattern at this time of year.

Seems to be that the interaction between an east-focused La Nina, expanded Hadley cell, strongly negative PDO, exceptionally warm (overall) N. Atlantic, and unusually strong polar vortex for an eQBO winter, is pushing the N. Hemisphere weather patterns in ways rarely, if ever, seen before. Fascinating from a broad perspective, whatever you think of the UK's resulting weather.

[Midlands Ice Age]

5 minutes ago, Singularity said:

You know, it really intrigues me that even with the polar vortex flexing its muscles and tropical forcing heading through a more La Nina-like phase, the models are continuing to put out charts that aren't classic +NAO, zonal flow situations, even in the 12-16 day range when that sort of thing is usually expressed very readily.

Of the 00z runs, the ECM was the closest and even that had the polar vortex imprint focusing to our NE as of D10.

The 06z GFS has reverted to a fully HP-dominated outlook, with no breakdown from D12, and in the late stages has charts that wouldn't look out of place in April. The very compact nature of the cold trough around Greenland seems out of place for early February. The cut-off low less so, but still not a common sight without a high-latitude blocking pattern at this time of year.

Seems to be that the interaction between an east-focused La Nina, expanded Hadley cell, strongly negative PDO, exceptionally warm (overall) N. Atlantic, and unusually strong polar vortex for an eQBO winter, is pushing the N. Hemisphere weather patterns in ways rarely, if ever, seen before. Fascinating from a broad perspective, whatever you think of the UK's resulting weather.

Does the above chart not suggest that its heading for a Scandy High, and with cold building  in Central Europe it could be a nice outlook?

MIA

[Weather-history]

If GFS 06z op is correct, some places in England will be close to absolute drought conditions if not before 

[Weather-history]

The "Bonkers" ensemble

[Ali1977]

A few interesting ones at T332

[Cold Winter Night]

1 hour ago, jules216 said:

It shows: 

1.negative NAO not necessary for cold here.

2. Also strong strat. Vortex not hurting.

3. Seasonal model hardly ever right for central Europe where cold and mild air masses usualy meet.

Here is my weather station data for temps. January. Since 06.01 interval +1/ -10. Even for my standards this is a 2 week cold spell.

In the diagrams below (from ECMWF) you would be just in/borderline area 6.
That area had its most severe cold spells in NAO/BLO regimes that were right where we've been moving for the past month or so.
Near the central circle, without strong correlation to the NAO.

I'm glad that at least one of us got to enjoy a cold spell. Congrats Jules!

[Cold Winter Night]

This morning, there's strong EPS ensemble agreement on the tPV making its way East again, with the High retreating West (height rises in N-America) and a Day 8-10 NW-SE flow over the East Atlantic and Western Europe setting in.

One would assume that a continued zonal picture is likely afterwards, but the extended clusters show that the tPV still doesn't get to exert its usual winter power. This time it's height rises nera Greenland and Svalbard that draw attention to day 15.

I agree that the reluctance to move to full force NAO+ is intriguing. It seems as if any defined pattern in our area is off limits. No zonal mobile setup, no meridional outbreaks of cold (like in America) or mild.

[PiscesStar]

3 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I think models are sniffing a change ahead with our resident HP moving.   Not like the GFS 00z though, no NE heights imo.  Let’s see if it backing west with troughs starting to move NW/SE in about a week + time gains traction

 

BFTP

I think we are ALL with you on that one... Will be lookin gfor signals in the next gfs run... 

[daz_4]

2 hours ago, jules216 said:

It shows: 

1.negative NAO not necessary for cold here.

2. Also strong strat. Vortex not hurting.

3. Seasonal model hardly ever right for central Europe where cold and mild air masses usualy meet.

Here is my weather station data for temps. January. Since 06.01 interval +1/ -10. Even for my standards this is a 2 week cold spell.

Would not speak for the whole CE. There is hardly any winter to speak of in Czechia, not even in the mountains. January is 3C above average so far.

[MP-R]

Personally I can't see a return to the Atlantic / change of the current status quo unless the PV ultimately moves east or even backs west. Things as they are, every time the UK high looks like waning, reinforcements come along from the west underneath the PV. To get out of this pattern we either need the PV to move east, in which case our high would slide west and open the door to a cool/cold Atlantic spell with more room for northerly incursions (although that would likely bring on the return to what we have now as is very common in February), or the whole pattern back west, or even a cut off low dive south and bring a change of fortunes and perhaps usher in an easterly (lowest likelihood).

As pointed out above, some of the FI charts, especially GFS, don't look out of place in the late spring and summer months. In the most boring way possible, it's quite interesting to see.

[swebby]

3 hours ago, jules216 said:

I had snowstorm Yesterday and Tn -12.3°C, so far January average is -2.2°C and will go down below -3 by the end of the month. So much for UKMO seasonal which would have suggested my region to be some of the mildest this month,just look at the Mslp map for central/E Európe. So as much as outlook looks uhly who knows Once cold exits ESB, this is a funny winter with as múch model innacuracy as ever.

I know the time frames are different lengths, but that anomaly pattern in that comparison you have posted is about as wrong as it could possibly be for the Pacific/US west coast.  I wonder what happened with the UKMO seasonal to get that so wrong?

[Downburst]

The EC 46 day out to the first week of Jan. To be frank I can't see a huge spread in the extended and some of the probabilistic charts are bullish on the forecast. They seem to keep adding more and more data too. My summary is a variation of January through February which will differ as pressure drops to the north west and the high anomaly focuses more to the continent, meaning warmer than average everywhere in the BI, with drier further south and east, but not a notable month of extremes anywhere I would say is a sure bet. 

 

[jules216]

34 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

Would not speak for the whole CE. There is hardly any winter to speak of in Czechia, not even in the mountains. January is 3C above average so far.

Pay back tíme from when Poland and CZ had whopping winter last year while here it rained, sometimes atmosphere Has a sense of justície

[mb018538]

44 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

This morning, there's strong EPS ensemble agreement on the tPV making its way East again, with the High retreating West (height rises in N-America) and a Day 8-10 NW-SE flow over the East Atlantic and Western Europe setting in.

One would assume that a continued zonal picture is likely afterwards, but the extended clusters show that the tPV still doesn't get to exert its usual winter power. This time it's height rises nera Greenland and Svalbard that draw attention to day 15.

I agree that the reluctance to move to full force NAO+ is intriguing. It seems as if any defined pattern in our area is off limits. No zonal mobile setup, no meridional outbreaks of cold (like in America) or mild.

ECM update last night still wasn't keen on dropping the trough too far south, with it being up more towards Greenland/Iceland for the next 3 weeks.

Edited January 21, 2022 by mb018538

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Singularity said:

You know, it really intrigues me that even with the polar vortex flexing its muscles and tropical forcing heading through a more La Nina-like phase, the models are continuing to put out charts that aren't classic +NAO, zonal flow situations, even in the 12-16 day range when that sort of thing is usually expressed very readily.

Of the 00z runs, the ECM was the closest and even that had the polar vortex imprint focusing to our NE as of D10.

The 06z GFS has reverted to a fully HP-dominated outlook, with no breakdown from D12, and in the late stages has charts that wouldn't look out of place in April. The very compact nature of the cold trough around Greenland seems out of place for early February. The cut-off low less so, but still not a common sight without a high-latitude blocking pattern at this time of year.

Seems to be that the interaction between an east-focused La Nina, expanded Hadley cell, strongly negative PDO, exceptionally warm (overall) N. Atlantic, and unusually strong polar vortex for an eQBO winter, is pushing the N. Hemisphere weather patterns in ways rarely, if ever, seen before. Fascinating from a broad perspective, whatever you think of the UK's resulting weather.

Yes that invisible line in the Atlantic not allowing it to affect the UK.