Storm Eunice - 18th February

[Wivenswold]

13 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

The start of the downgrades possibly... Dudley started downgrading at around this timeframe.

Assume nothing at this stage. 

As an aside on the housing thing, old houses built better than new. Most new homes are made mostly of oil-based wood composite and oil-treated wooden batons and are rarely designed for longevity. I deal with a lot of resident association legal disputes. Pre 1980's homes = good. Post-1980 homes = big pile of hastily thrown together material that's got a lot of oil based substances in it. There will be a crisis with them once the solvent keeping new homes together starts to degrade in a few decades' time. Buy an unfashionable old council house, cheap and built like tanks.   

[Polar Maritime]

No more on house build quality please, Thanks everyone

There is some very interesting weather and model watching coming up... So let's keep discussion on topic and to the interest of the thread discussion.

Edited February 15, 2022 by Polar Maritime

[Wivenswold]

1 minute ago, Polar Maritime said:

No more on house build quality please, Thanks everyone

It's the expectation of the Pub run that's making everyone weird. Or maybe none of us are getting out enough. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Just now, Wivenswold said:

It's the expectation of the Pub run that's making everyone weird. Or maybe none of us are getting out enough. 

This is just beyond nuts at the moment. For me, there’s runs showing screaming southwesterlies touching 90-100mph, and then others showing an easterly veering northeasterly with what looks like a blizzard on the northern flank!!! Make of it what you will. Can’t say I’ve seen many runs like this at present. Phenomenal contrasts. 

[stainesbloke]

26 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

This is just beyond nuts at the moment. For me, there’s runs showing screaming southwesterlies touching 90-100mph, and then others showing an easterly veering northeasterly with what looks like a blizzard on the northern flank!!! Make of it what you will. Can’t say I’ve seen many runs like this at present. Phenomenal contrasts. 

Yes, certainly an ‘interesting’ week coming up! The winds will be affecting much of Europe, too. 90mph winds inland will cause mayhem and plenty of damage, especially as the worst winds will hit during the day. Still time for downgrades, but it’s looking increasingly nasty for Friday.

[FetchCB]

One element to factor in for urban areas is the venturi effect where the wind speed increases as it passes between buildings thus a 90mph gust could reach 115 - 120mph 

[Mike Poole]

So a quick check on wind gusts at T72 for most models, first for GFS, UKMO, ARPEGE:

Colours not the same on all of these, and adding in GEM and ICON:

And ECM, but this is mean winds, not gusts:

So to try to pick the bones out of that, the UKMO and GEM look really nasty, GFS too.  ECM seems to take the system further south, so less intense, and ICON does too, well it has done on all runs practically.  I, personally, would bin the ICON as it isn’t a good enough global model, and by that ticket would bin all the ensembles of all models here due to their lower resolution - remember some still show no storm.  The envelope of uncertainty is defined by the main higher res op runs - it has shifted south since yesterdays 12z, yes, but it is still packing some real punch on those models - whether that downgrades or not is very uncertain and will be the focus of much interest over the next 48 hours.  

 

Edited February 15, 2022 by Mike Poole

[AWD]

On a smaller note, it's worth noting that the strong winds parts of England and Wales are likely to experience on Friday won't be particularly mild either;

Nothing like a 60mph+ gale with a feels like temp circa -4c slapping you in the face! 

Edited February 15, 2022 by AWD

[Mapantz]

I don't know if it has been mentioned yet, or not.. there was an update to the Netweather V8 radar today! It now allows you to set notifications for rain/snow/lightning, as well as news. If you are a subscriber, then you can open the web app and update it. You'll see a bell icon. 

Perfect for all of this wild weather we're enduring.  

Edited February 15, 2022 by Mapantz

[Man With Beard]

Interestingly on ECM ensembles, there is a cluster that take the storm through N England and the Borders with even greater intensity. Runs in this cluster bring 100mph winds very close to Lancashire and the Lake District:

A surprising amount of scatter on the ensembles overall, too much to start narrowing down on the track yet. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Interestingly on ECM ensembles, there is a cluster that take the storm through N England and the Borders with even greater intensity. Runs in this cluster bring 100mph winds very close to Lancashire and the Lake District:

A surprising amount of scatter on the ensembles overall, too much to start narrowing down on the track yet. 

Yeah noticed there were 4 or so GEFS with that track, there were 0 in the 0z suite.

[weirpig]

Big difference on icon 18z  low doesnt really develop

[Mike Poole]

42 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Big difference on icon 18z  low doesnt really develop

Well that was the next logical step on the ICON southerly track, if it is to maintain that difference compared with the other models, wouldn’t you think?

Edited February 15, 2022 by Mike Poole

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Big difference on icon 18z  low doesnt really develop

I agree with @Mike Poole - a model for the bin! I know it could still occur like that, but it is an outlier, such a scenario. A scenario which is only supported by a few low-res GFS members.

[Ross90]

Why are the models struggling so badly with this? At 7 or 10 days it's to be expected but at less than 3 days it could still go anywhere or not even exist... it seems like the further away the weather gets from the seasonal norm the more hopeless the models become.

[Thunder and Lightning]

2 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

I agree with @Mike Poole - a model for the bin! I know it could still occur like that, but it is an outlier, such a scenario. A scenario which is only supported by a few low-res GFS members.

Same with mogreps - that solutions is in the relative minority of the ensemble output. 

Also growing confidence of 70-80mph through central England suggested by MOGREPS again 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Another one to note, the JMA develops barely anything at all. It has Eunice passing as a small shortwave…

[Man With Beard]

1 minute ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Another one to note, the JMA develops barely anything at all. It has Eunice passing as a small shortwave…

Probably 20% of ECM ensembles have Friday as no more than a typical winter gale.

The scenario is a bit like setting off a bomb when the Jetstream hits the developing low - room for error larger than usual. 

[BlueHedgehog074]

Even though it’s the 12Z run and is from the NAVGEM, it’s one of the other operational models that’s going for a dance with the ICON having the little fella going through the far South of the UK.

 

Sure it probably won’t happen with a track further North being more likely, but I guess you never know.

[Mike Poole]

ICON 18z T120,

[Nick F]

ICON sticking to its guns on the 18z, low centre tracking quickly east south of M4.

Edited February 15, 2022 by Nick F

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

7 minutes ago, Nick F said:

ICON sticking to its guns on the 18z, low centre tracking quickly east south of M4.

The most unlikely source of an easterly with widespread snow! Surely not . 
Ironically as much chance of this verifying, rather than relying on a Scandi or Greenland high! 

[matty40s]

33 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Big difference on icon 18z  low doesnt really develop

That's it, all over then...

[swebby]

3 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Let's not get bogged down with who's house is the strongest, or who's fence survived the storm of 1987.. Keep it friendly please?!

Especially as we all know the answer is of course the third little pig.

As to if the wolf was called Eunice, the records sadly do not say.

[IanT]

35 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

Why are the models struggling so badly with this? At 7 or 10 days it's to be expected but at less than 3 days it could still go anywhere or not even exist... it seems like the further away the weather gets from the seasonal norm the more hopeless the models become.

The characterisation that the models are “struggling” is inappropriate. Better to recognise that many different evolutions are possible from the current set of starting conditions, and that model output reflects this.