Storm Eunice - 18th February

[Nick L]

There we go. Better late than never! Will be red tomorrow night.

[Sentinel]

If I remember correctly, part of the problem in 1987 was that the Met Office used weather ships to take observations and then send these back to HQ. The storm went between the two ships hence the reason they didn't pick up on it until it was nearly on us. Today they have a network of weather buoys which do a similar function and have a ship which goes round servicing them. This means we are getting far more data than before.

[Liam Burge]

I have a feeling (and this is just speculation right now) that the red warning will be somewhere around the Bristol channel. If I'm not mistaken that is where models are showing the most intense wind gusts to be.

[shunthebartlett92]

Wouldn’t it just be classic this winter for a massive track change at the last minute? That’s all I’m saying….

[Sainsbo]

Honestly I'm not surprised to see the Met Office wait until today to give an amber. A number of the GFS ensemble members didn't even have a closed low over the UK on Friday until very recently. There's always a trade off to be made between giving the public suitable warning, and uncertainty, and the Met Office can't really afford to get it wrong. 

I do wonder what areas will get a red warning tomorrow (providing no change in the output). Large swathes of inland area have the potential to see 80mph gusts. In the densely populated south, maybe a red warning won't be reserved for just the 90/100mph gusts along coastal areas? Guess we'll find out.

Edited February 16, 2022 by Sainsbo

[Tim M]

1 minute ago, shunthebartlett92 said:

Wouldn’t it just be classic this winter for a massive track change at the last minute? That’s all I’m saying….

I really hope for this, but can't see any hope.

[Timbo]

Just now, Liam Burge said:

I have a feeling (and this is just speculation right now) that the red warning will be somewhere around the Bristol channel. If I'm not mistaken that is where models are showing the most intense wind gusts to be.

I think the red warning area will a lot larger, i also think East Anglia will be in the red warning, looks like winds intensify as it starts to exit into the North sea

[lottiekent]

1 minute ago, Timbo said:

I think the red warning area will a lot larger, i also think East Anglia will be in the red warning, looks like winds intensify as it starts to exit into the North sea

We normally get a funnelling effect along the West Sussex and Kent coasts too as these types of low exit the UK. Gets a lot windier here than forecast most times.

[boydem87]

The met office haven't uploaded a video on there YouTube channel for 17hours why the silence from them?

[BlueHedgehog074]

Just an overview from numerous operational models currently for Friday lunchtime:

06Z GFS

 

00Z ECMWF

00Z UKMO

00Z GEM

00Z JMA

 

00Z NAVGEM

 

06Z ICON

All addressing continued variation as to the timing, track and intensity of the monstrous Low.

Would be fair to say that the main operationals from the UKMO, GFS and ECMWF have the cyclone going through Northern England, more through Southern/Central Scotland on the GEM. But the UKMO, GFS and GEM have the Low being the most stormy looking and likely bringing the worst of the winds. Does look nearly as beastly on the ECMWF too, although has more of a shallower Low centre. JMA looks to have the Low a little less blown up in general and is a little further West than the 4 operational models above it (GFS, ECMWF, UKMO and GEM). Although a touch further North than its previous 12Z run, the NAVGEM still keeps to quite a Southerly track similar to that of the ICON (which looks the furthest South) through Southern UK with the strongest of the winds for most areas avoided. Maybe quite blowy still for some Southern parts on those 2 models, but no more-widespread strong to gale force winds over the UK that the top 4 operational models above would provide.

It kinda feels like a battle between the ICON/NAVGEM vs the GFS/UKMO/ECMWF/GEM. JMA perhaps closer to that of the GFS, UKMO, ECMWF and GFS, but is kinda in between those 2 groups of models. For those who hate stormy weather, you’d be hoping the ICON and NAVGEM are closer to the mark. And vice versa if you want to see things exploding over the UK. It would seem unlikely for the main operational models from the likes of the ECMWF etc to be off the mark (even those models could water-down or blow up the Low even further). Always a small chance that the ICON and/or NAVGEM could take the victory. Not to be completely discounted. Plus, ICON especially being the best for providing a spell of sleet and snow for places further South, particularly areas like the Midlands. The winds most likely being the most notable feature, however, but does depend how it all continues to evolve. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

3 minutes ago, Timbo said:

I think the red warning area will a lot larger, i also think East Anglia will be in the red warning, looks like winds intensify as it starts to exit into the North sea

Definitely. A sting jet over the flatlands of the Fens, Suffolk and Norfolk would have devastating consequences. It’s very unsheltered from topography here. Concerning. 

[shuggee]

I'm surprised the snow risk hasn't gone amber yet for southern Scotland/far north of England. 20+ cm of snow is going to be disruptive and it's even to low levels.... 

[seb]

The criteria for a red warning are these:

Quote

 

Widespread danger to life from flying debris.

Widespread structural damage e.g. roofs blown off, mobile homes overturned, power lines brought down.

Transport routes and travel services affected for a prolonged period.  Long travel delays. 

Closure of main bridges, road and rail networks in many areas, and significant disruption to air and ferry transport.

Widespread and prolonged disruption to power, and/or other utilities and services.

Danger to life from large waves/beach material being thrown onto coastal route, sea fronts and coastal communities.

 

What are the National Severe Weather Warning Service Impact tables?

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Make sure you know what to do when severe weather is forecast

Because we have moved from absolute windspeed being the trigger for warnings years ago and are instead using the above criteria, we could end up with a red warning area (almost) matching the current amber area because there isn't much difference between 80mph and 90mph gusts causing the impacts needed for a red warning.

This is if models stay as they currently are of course.

[weirpig]

Can someone give me the heads up on the criteria of a red warning?.  I assume it wont be all about windspeeds.   Would 80mph wind gusts in high populated areas   be classed more of a risk than 90-100mph winds in less densly populated areas

[Liam Burge]

I saw someone linked an article to what sting jets were yesterday but I have seem to have lost it. Would anyone be able to link it again as I'm interested in what they are (never heard the term before yesterday).

[North East Blizzard]

Hope all you guys down there stay safe. We have had our fill of storms up here recently, any more damage could be devastating for businesses etc, glad this one is giving us a wide birth. Just the snow to contend with this time. 

[shunthebartlett92]

5 minutes ago, shuggee said:

I'm surprised the snow risk hasn't gone amber yet for southern Scotland/far north of England. 20+ cm of snow is going to be disruptive and it's even to low levels.... 

you lucky sods getting all the fun 

[Jayces]

28 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Would I be correct in understanding that as the impact is already in the high column, a red warning is guaranteed at some point as the storm is defintily going to happen? Or could it remain amber say if it tracks much further South (however unlikely currently)?

[FetchCB]

24 minutes ago, Timbo said:

What would happen if we get a sting jet into the mix as it develops, how much could this increase the gusts to?

 

Oct 87 had winds of 115mph but it only affects a very narrow area and is difficult to predict

Edited February 16, 2022 by FetchCB
removed link - not working

[Marcus_surfer]

Gower looking a bit windy friday

[mountain shadow]

8 minutes ago, shuggee said:

I'm surprised the snow risk hasn't gone amber yet for southern Scotland/far north of England. 20+ cm of snow is going to be disruptive and it's even to low levels.... 

Could be a sleety mess? Dew points marginal for it to stick maybe?

[GokouD]

2 minutes ago, Jayces said:

Would I be correct in understanding that as the impact is already in the high column, a red warning is guaranteed at some point as the storm is defintily going to happen? Or could it remain amber say if it tracks much further South (however unlikely currently)?

I think so yes, assuming the storm happens as currently forecast, it will have to go red for at least some of the warning area.

[Fiona Robertson]

1 minute ago, Liam Burge said:

I saw someone linked an article to what sting jets were yesterday but I have seem to have lost it. Would anyone be able to link it again as I'm interested in what they are (never heard the term before yesterday).

Every year I ask someone to explain sting jets to me and every year some very kind souls do just that and give me links. I read it all and I think "Yeah... I get it now" and every year I subsequently see a post and realise "Nope, don't got it!" and ask again. I have a blind spot when it comes to grasping this. Currently, after spending the early part of winter reading up on them I've managed to get to the point of "sting jet BAD!"

[nick sussex]

I picked the wrong time to return to the UK !

Looks very concerning and the advice should be don’t travel on Friday.

Regarding the latest ICON , I’d be amazed if this was even close to being correct and the latest UKMO tracks the storm a bit further north than the 00hrs .

I expect the Met Office will issue a red warning by tomorrow . With this in mind they should do this with at least 24 hours notice.

All businesses and any schools open in those areas should close as the storm on current projections could be one of the worst to hit in recent years .

[kev238]

A red is pretty much guaranteed now . Needs to be issued in a timely fashion tomorrow so plans can be amended .

I would imagine it would be potentially quite a large red warning especially focused on South West / South East / Wales/ East Anglia / London