Storm Eunice - 18th February

[Just Before Dawn]

I should probably go to bed given that I’m on call from 6am, but I’m hanging in there for what promises to be a shipping forecast for the ages.

[Rich_T]

Message just in, storm, what storm? Its all quite here, see you tomorrow 

[James1979]

9 minutes ago, Boro_andy said:

Long time lurker of not much knowledge but seeing posts about a “stringing jet” could be a potential for my area, Peterborough.

What is this and I’m assuming it’s not good news with some of the images posted above. What should one expect from this?

Explosive winds like little bombs going off, gusts much higher than the average in the area and general carnage. I've been stung and it looks like another sting to come potentially. 

[Sirena]

Just wet here in West Cornwall right now - you wouldn't think there was a storm coming in...

[richie3846]

26 minutes ago, chapmanslade said:

She will blow over before she even reaches the car!

Problem solved!

[GSP]

6 minutes ago, Andrew Hurcomb said:

Didn't they have a Cobra meeting today about this storm? It makes perfect sense that people in power didn't want people in London to take a day off because of the weather as it would hit profits, business etc. Hold out as long as possible and hope it doesn;t warrent a Red Warning for South and East.

People are literally going to get battered out there tomorrow. They’ll be an inquest why so many people were out and about. If we could see it coming, then……

Edited February 17, 2022 by GSP

[StingJet]

3 minutes ago, Just Before Dawn said:

I should probably go to bed given that I’m on call from 6am, but I’m hanging in there for what promises to be a shipping forecast for the ages.

  I always enjoy the good old rendition of "Sailing by"

[MP-R]

1 minute ago, jam said:

if it was a cobra meeting then in all probs they’ll have cracked open the champagne and nibbled on prawn sandwiches .. while buying shares in wind farms 

I wouldn’t... they’re useless in anything over a light gale 

[matty40s]

10 minutes ago, aggy said:

Hope everyone in the south stays safe . Storms are pretty normal here our trees and structures are well used to high winds unlike the south . Really hoping it’s not as bad as forecast for you all . Scary times. . 

Thankyou for your thoughts,  neither the BBC or Metoffice is giving this the warnings it deserves,  the stingjet will be awful.

[SnowBear]

Estimated storm centre, 51.45N/16.18W. 115kph winds in SW quadrant. Moving forward slightly north of east. 

I'm going to make a guess at landfall in Ireland.... Somewhere around Galway. 

My storm tracking maybe very rusty now so don't quote me on that lol

[Downburst]

32 minutes ago, North Easterly Breeze said:

Consistent 65mph+ inland is a red all day long for me. 

But it’s not consistent to be frank. Most gust charts are max gust in 3hrs period. It has to be called out. I’m not taking away from the seriousness of the damage and mayhem this is likely to cause, but I’ve noticed folk seem to be taking gust charts as sustained wind forecast. It’s the world we live in I know.

 

[Mark_p]

Automated forecasts have a lot to answer for too. The general public will check their devices and see frankly wrong information. For my postcode today, for example, BBC app has gone from showing gusts of 70mph to a max of 21mph and a headline of 'Light rain showers and a fresh breeze.' In an amber wind warning...Now we all realise that they're automated and flawed but as I said, Joe public doesn't know and whilst it's normally just an annoyance, it could actually put people and property at risk in this instance. 

Edited February 17, 2022 by Mark88

[Allseasons-Si]

Are the Meto going to put red warnings out in other areas when it's too late?,...not be the first time.

[Met4Cast]

The issue isn't that the red area hasn't been expanded, it's the lack of communication on the difference between the red/amber areas that concerns me. The impact matrix shows that we could see the same high impacts within the amber warning than we could in the red, the only difference is the confidence level.

Yet, the public view the warnings very differently, even people on here view them very differently. Why is the impact matrix hidden away? Why is it not shown on TV with the context of the warnings explained? The entire Met warning system relies on the impact matrix to make sense, especially in these situations, and yet, it's barely mentioned or talked about.

[damianslaw]

When are the wind gusts expected to be strongest? In the morning in the SW and Wales transferring to lunchtime further east? Then again late afternoon once low has tracked into N Sea with a shift to the NW?

[jam]

6 minutes ago, MP-R said:

I wouldn’t... they’re useless in anything over a light gale 

they’ll be financing the rebuild

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

The issue isn't that the red area hasn't been expanded, it's the lack of communication on the difference between the red/amber areas that concerns me. The impact matrix shows that we could see the same high impacts within the amber warning than we could in the red, the only difference is the confidence level.

Yet, the public view the warnings very differently, even people on here view them very differently. Why is the impact matrix hidden away? Why is it not shown on TV with the context of the warnings explained? The entire Met warning system relies on the impact matrix to make sense, especially in these situations, and yet, it's barely mentioned or talked about.

That is a good point,..not everyone looks at the Meto warnings or they just brush the warnings off as if this is going to be a gentle breeze

the forecasts on the telly should mention the matrix more and what it means.

[Andy Pepler]

pressure is falling pretty quick

 

[RabbitEars]

6 minutes ago, SnowBear said:

Estimated storm centre, 51.45N/16.18W. 115kph winds in SW quadrant. Moving forward slightly north of east. 

I'm going to make a guess at landfall in Ireland.... Somewhere around Galway. 

My storm tracking maybe very rusty now so don't quote me on that lol

Sustained or max gust? 

[Andy Pepler]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

That is a good point,..not everyone looks at the Meto warnings or they just brush the warnings off as if this is going to be a gentle breeze

the forecasts on the telly should mention the matrix more and what it means.

it should be text to every phone in times like this ...

[Jimmyh]

4 minutes ago, Downburst said:

But it’s not consistent to be frank. Most gust charts are max gust in 3hrs period. It has to be called out. I’m not taking away from the seriousness of the damage and mayhem this is likely to cause, but I’ve noticed folk seem to be taking gust charts as sustained wind forecast. It’s the world we live in I know.

 

Agree however we have a sustained wind speed of 34 mph over a four hour period with gusts upwards of 70+ mph. 

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Andy Pepler said:

it should be text to every phone in times like this ...

That is a bloody great idea.

[SnowBear]

1 minute ago, RabbitEars said:

Sustained or max gust? 

Out at sea, I think it's sustained. About 71mph, violent storm force 11.

[John Stevens]

3 minutes ago, Mark88 said:

Automated forecasts have a lot to answer for too. The general public will check their devices and see frankly wrong information. For my postcode today, for example, BBC app has gone from showing gusts of 70mph to a max of 21mph and a headline of 'Light rain showers and a fresh breeze.' In an amber wind warning...Now we all realise that they're automated and flawed but as I said, Joe public doesn't know and whilst it's normally just annoyance it could actually put people and property at risk in this instance. 

This is very true…. Having just checked the BBC and MetO apps for my current location, the two show a 22mph difference in the gusts speeds at 11am ….Rookley IOW: 87mph(BBC) 65mph (MetO)…sustained wind speeds are only shown if you open the full forecast…which most people will only focus on the headline figures….

 Also, more fundamentally the app data is not updated on a regular basis, but on the various runs some hours earlier…so many people are easily misled.

[North Easterly Breeze]

Brutal.